Aurora Forecast

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27 Day

Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 4816
Issue Time: 2025 Jan 20 2312 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4815
Valid From: 2025 Jan 19 0709 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2025 Jan 21 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 3414
Issue Time: 2025 Jan 20 1358 UTC

ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Threshold Reached: 2025 Jan 20 1340 UTC
Station: GOES16
Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK05
Serial Number: 1967
Issue Time: 2025 Jan 20 1331 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2025 Jan 20 1332 UTC
Valid To: 2025 Jan 20 2100 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 4815
Issue Time: 2025 Jan 20 1243 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4814
Valid From: 2025 Jan 19 0709 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2025 Jan 20 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Solar-terrestrial indices for 20 January follow.
Solar flux 230 and estimated planetary A-index 20.
The estimated planetary K-index at 0600 UTC on 21 January was 3.33.

No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be minor.
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level are likely.

Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 19 Jan 015
Estimated Ap 20 Jan 019
Predicted Ap 21 Jan-23 Jan 012-005-005

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jan-23 Jan
Active                35/15/15
Minor storm           25/05/05
Moderate storm        01/01/01
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 21 Jan - 23 Jan
             Jan 21    Jan 22    Jan 23
00-03UT        4.00      1.33      1.67
03-06UT        3.00      1.33      1.33
06-09UT        2.00      1.67      1.33
09-12UT        2.33      1.33      1.33
12-15UT        2.33      1.33      1.33
15-18UT        2.00      1.33      1.33
18-21UT        2.67      1.67      1.67
21-00UT        2.67      1.67      1.67

Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 21-Jan 23 2025 is 4.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 21-Jan 23 2025

             Jan 21       Jan 22       Jan 23
00-03UT       4.00         1.33         1.67
03-06UT       3.00         1.33         1.33
06-09UT       2.00         1.67         1.33
09-12UT       2.33         1.33         1.33
12-15UT       2.33         1.33         1.33
15-18UT       2.00         1.33         1.33
18-21UT       2.67         1.67         1.67
21-00UT       2.67         1.67         1.67

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 21-Jan 23 2025

              Jan 21  Jan 22  Jan 23
S1 or greater   10%     10%     10%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 21-Jan 23 2025

              Jan 21        Jan 22        Jan 23
R1-R2           65%           65%           65%
R3 or greater   20%           20%           20%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackout events are likely, with
a slight chance for R3 (Strong) events, over 21-23 Jan due to the flare
potential of multiple regions on the visible disk.

Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. The majority of the C-class flares
occurred from Region 3968 (S18W85, Cai/beta-delta). The largest was a
C6.3 at 20/1315 UTC. Rapid growth was observed in Region 3968 as it
began to transit the SW limb. Slight growth and consolidation was
observed in Region 3961 (S09W08, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta). Region 3961
continued to be the largest region on the disk with a possible delta
developing within its central spots. Slight growth was also observed in
Regions 3964 (N06W75, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) and 3969 (S06E45,
Dri/beta-gamma). New Region 3971 (N12E03, Cri/beta) was numbered. The
rest of the spotted regions were stable or in decay. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed.

.Forecast...
R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) events are likely, with a slight chance for R3 or
greater events, over 21-23 Jan.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak
flux of 1,180 pfu at 20/1330 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to
high levels through 23 Jan. There is a slight chance for the greater
than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) levels over 21-23 Jan.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Negative polarity CH HSS influence prevailed through the period. Total
field ranged from 1-9 nT with the Bz component variable between +/-9 nT.
Solar wind speed increased from an average of 500 km/s to around 600-650
km/s. Phi angle was predominantly negative.

.Forecast...
Enhanced solar wind conditions and negative polarity CH HSS influences
are expected to persist through 21 Jan. Background levels are expected
to return on 22-23 Jan.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active due to persistent CH HSS
activity.

.Forecast...
Unsettled to active levels, with a chance for G1 (Minor) storming, is
expected to continue through 21 Jan as HSS effects persist. Mostly quiet
conditions is expected to return on 22-23 Jan.

27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2025 Jan 20     235          12          4
2025 Jan 21     235           8          3
2025 Jan 22     235           5          2
2025 Jan 23     230           5          2
2025 Jan 24     230           5          2
2025 Jan 25     235           5          2
2025 Jan 26     240           5          2
2025 Jan 27     245           5          2
2025 Jan 28     245           5          2
2025 Jan 29     245           5          2
2025 Jan 30     240           5          2
2025 Jan 31     235          20          5
2025 Feb 01     230          20          5
2025 Feb 02     225          20          5
2025 Feb 03     225          15          4
2025 Feb 04     225          12          4
2025 Feb 05     230          12          4
2025 Feb 06     225          10          3
2025 Feb 07     215           5          2
2025 Feb 08     205           5          2
2025 Feb 09     195          10          3
2025 Feb 10     190          12          4
2025 Feb 11     185          18          5
2025 Feb 12     185          15          4
2025 Feb 13     185          20          5
2025 Feb 14     185          12          4
2025 Feb 15     190          15          4

Save as 'My Presets'

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.
From Date: (YYYY-MM-DD HH:MM). Leave empty for real-time.

Range: (in hours, WARNING 1 hour = ~10KB of data)
Local Time Zone:
Enable Forecast / Timeshift (Recommended) Enable Fixed Y Axis Values Combine Y Series (B*, Proton, Dyn Preasure & Kp). Show Axis Titles Show Graph Legend (Keys) Enable Auto Update (Range will be reduced to 2 hours) Enable Night Vision Red Theme

DATA SOURCES: Learn more
Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.
'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

AF Index (Experemental) AF Community Activity (Hits)
Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

SWPC Kp (Observation)
SWPC Kp (Prediction) GeoSpace Kp (Prediction) Wing Kp (Legacy : Date < 22/06/18)
Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.

Northern Hemisphere (Aurora Borealis) Southern Hemisphere (Aurora Australis)
DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

Mag Bt (Total Strength) Mag Bx (X Axis) Mag By (Y Axis) Mag Bz (Z Axis) Solar Wind Speed Proton Density Dynamic Pressure (Calculated)
ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
Show ACE (When enabled the forecasting / timeshift feature will be disabled)
GOES Satalites: Learn more

GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

Primary Secondary Variation (Pri - Sec)
Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.

Macquarie Island (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Mawson (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Canberra (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Ruru Obseratory (www.ruruobseratory.org.nz / NZ) Aurora Forecast #1 (Hobart) Aurora Forecast #2 (Hobart) Aurora Forecast #3 (Hobart)
User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.

v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)

v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.

v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).

v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.

> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)
Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

DATA SOURCES: Learn more Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

DATA SOURCES: Learn more
Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.