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Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: SUM10R
Serial Number: 913
Issue Time: 2026 May 17 2116 UTC

SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2026 May 17 2050 UTC
Maximum Time: 2026 May 17 2051 UTC
End Time: 2026 May 17 2051 UTC
Peak Flux: 370 sfu
Duration: 1 minutes
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 104 sfu

Comment:

Space Weather Message Code: WATA20
Serial Number: 1113
Issue Time: 2026 May 17 1612 UTC

WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted
Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
May 18:  G1 (Minor)   May 19:  G1 (Minor)   May 20:  None (Below G1)
THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT

Comment:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.


Solar-terrestrial indices for 17 May follow.
Solar flux 104 and estimated planetary A-index 8.
The estimated planetary K-index at 0000 UTC on 18 May was 2.00.

Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor.
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level occurred.

Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be minor.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are likely.


Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 16 May 034
Estimated Ap 17 May 012
Predicted Ap 18 May-20 May 021-021-008

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 May-20 May
Active                25/15/25
Minor storm           40/40/10
Moderate storm        20/25/01
Strong-Extreme storm  05/05/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 18 May - 20 May
             May 18    May 19    May 20
00-03UT        3.67      4.33      2.33
03-06UT        3.33      5.33      2.33
06-09UT        3.00      3.67      2.00
09-12UT        2.33      2.67      2.00
12-15UT        2.00      2.00      2.00
15-18UT        5.00      2.00      2.00
18-21UT        4.00      3.00      2.00
21-00UT        3.33      3.33      2.00


Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 18-May 20 2026 is 5.33 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown May 18-May 20 2026

             May 18       May 19       May 20
00-03UT       3.67         4.33         2.33
03-06UT       3.33         5.33 (G1)    2.33
06-09UT       3.00         3.67         2.00
09-12UT       2.33         2.67         2.00
12-15UT       2.00         2.00         2.00
15-18UT       5.00 (G1)    2.00         2.00
18-21UT       4.00         3.00         2.00
21-00UT       3.33         3.33         2.00

Rationale: Isolated periods of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are
possible on 18-19 May due to a potential glancing blow from a CME that
left the Sun on 16 May.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-19 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 18-May 20 2026

              May 18  May 19  May 20
S1 or greater    5%      5%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at May 17 2026 0339 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for May 18-May 20 2026

              May 18        May 19        May 20
R1-R2           40%           45%           45%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
through 20 May, with no little to no R3 (Strong) blackouts expected.


Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at moderate levels due to an M1.4 flare at 17/0339
UTC that originated from just beyond the northwest limb. Region 4436
(N19W39, Dso/beta) continued to exhibit decay and produced a C9.7 flare
at 17/2053 UTC with an associated 10.7 cm radio burst of 370 sfu. Region
4441 (N18E14, Dao/beta) underwent evolution as it gained penumbra on
both poles and began to show signs of mixed polarity in its intermediate
portion. Regions 4442 (S16E44, Cro/beta) and 4443 (S15E60, Bxo/beta)
emerged, were numbered this period, but were otherwise relatively quiet.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be at low levels, with a chance for
additional M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares through 20 May.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux increased to high levels with a
peak flux of 6,120 pfu occurring at 17/1740 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux was at background levels, though beginning to show
contamination signatures from the elevated electron flux.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at moderate
to high levels through 18 May before possibly returning to normal to
moderate levels by late on 19 May with any CME glancing effects from the
16 May event. If this occurs, then electron flux in geostationary orbit
will likely remain at normal to moderate levels on 20 May. The greater
than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to stay at background levels through
20 May.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind parameters reflected continued influence of a negative
polarity coronal hole. Total field averaged under 5 nT and the Bz
component of the IMF was near neutral. Solar wind speeds gradually
decreased from speeds between 600-650 km/s to approximately 550 km/s by
the end of the period. The phi angle was largely negative with two
hour-long periods of positive orientation.

.Forecast...
A negative polarity CH HSS regime is expected to continue to slowly
diminish through 20 May. Additional enhancements are possible on 18 and
19 May due to aforementioned glancing CME influences from the 16 May
event.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

.Forecast...
G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming periods, with a chance for G2
(Moderate) levels, are likely on 18-19 May due to any glancing CME
effects from the 16 May event as modeling efforts suggest that a bulk of
the material should pass just north of Earth. Quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected on 20 May as negative polarity CH HSS effects
come to a close.


27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2026 May 11     128           8          3
2026 May 12     128           5          2
2026 May 13     122          10          3
2026 May 14     130           5          2
2026 May 15     125          25          5
2026 May 16     125          20          5
2026 May 17     120          18          5
2026 May 18     122          15          4
2026 May 19     130           5          2
2026 May 20     130           5          2
2026 May 21     130           8          3
2026 May 22     120          10          3
2026 May 23     125          12          4
2026 May 24     125           5          2
2026 May 25     125           5          2
2026 May 26     130           5          2
2026 May 27     135          12          4
2026 May 28     135          10          3
2026 May 29     130           8          3
2026 May 30     125           8          3
2026 May 31     122           8          3
2026 Jun 01     118           5          2
2026 Jun 02     115           5          2
2026 Jun 03     120           5          2
2026 Jun 04     120          12          4
2026 Jun 05     120           5          2
2026 Jun 06     120           5          2


  • GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
    It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

  • DATA SOURCES: Learn more
    Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

  • 'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
    These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

    The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

    Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

  • Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
    The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

    Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

  • Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
    The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.
  • DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

    The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

    Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

  • ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

    ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
  • GOES Satalites: Learn more

    GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

  • Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
    Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
    These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
    There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.
  • User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
    If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
    Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

 

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.


v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
 
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
 
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
 
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
 
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)

  Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey