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Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 3567
Issue Time: 2025 Nov 30 0459 UTC

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 3566
Begin Time: 2025 Nov 25 1450 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 23005 pfu
Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5169
Issue Time: 2025 Nov 29 2355 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 5168
Valid From: 2025 Nov 24 0226 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2025 Nov 30 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: SUM10R
Serial Number: 891
Issue Time: 2025 Nov 29 2057 UTC

SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2025 Nov 29 2011 UTC
Maximum Time: 2025 Nov 29 2012 UTC
End Time: 2025 Nov 29 2013 UTC
Duration: 2 minutes
Peak Flux: 170 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 160 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.


Solar-terrestrial indices for 29 November follow.
Solar flux 160 and estimated planetary A-index 20.
The estimated planetary K-index at 1200 UTC on 30 November was 3.33.

Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor.
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level occurred.

Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be moderate.
Radio blackouts reaching the R2 level are likely.


Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 28 Nov 022
Estimated Ap 29 Nov 019
Predicted Ap 30 Nov-02 Dec 012-005-005

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Nov-02 Dec
Active                35/15/15
Minor storm           15/01/01
Moderate storm        01/01/01
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 30 Nov - 02 Dec
             Nov 30    Dec 01    Dec 02
00-03UT        4.00      1.67      1.33
03-06UT        2.00      2.00      1.33
06-09UT        2.67      1.33      1.67
09-12UT        3.67      1.33      1.33
12-15UT        2.67      1.33      1.33
15-18UT        2.00      1.00      1.33
18-21UT        1.00      1.33      1.67
21-00UT        1.00      1.33      1.67


Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 30-Dec 02 2025 is 4.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 30-Dec 02 2025

             Nov 30       Dec 01       Dec 02
00-03UT       4.00         1.67         1.33
03-06UT       4.00         2.00         1.33
06-09UT       2.33         1.33         1.67
09-12UT       3.33         1.33         1.33
12-15UT       2.67         1.33         1.33
15-18UT       2.00         1.00         1.33
18-21UT       1.00         1.33         1.67
21-00UT       1.00         1.33         1.67

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 30-Dec 02 2025

              Nov 30  Dec 01  Dec 02
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Nov 29 2025 1607 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 30-Dec 02 2025

              Nov 30        Dec 01        Dec 02
R1-R2           65%           65%           65%
R3 or greater   15%           15%           15%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a
slight chance for an R3 (Strong) or greater event, on 30 Nov-02 Dec.


Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at moderate levels with four M-flares (R1-Minor)
observed from Regions 4294 (S15E62, Fkc/beta-gamma) and new Region 4295
(N04E72, Hsx/alpha); the strongest an M2.8 at 29/1607 UTC from Region
4295. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph
imagery.

.Forecast...
M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) are likely, with a slight chance
for an X-class flare (R3-Strong), over 30 Nov-02 Dec.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak
flux of 23,004 pfu observed at 29/1640 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on
29 Nov-02 Dec. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain
at background levels through 02 Dec.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters continued to reflect the influence of a positive
polarity coronal hole high speed stream. Total magnetic field strength
varied between 3-8 nT, and the Bz component reached as far south as
-6 nT frequently throughout the reporting period. Solar wind speeds
remained  elevated, with reported values mostly between 550-650 km/s.
Phi angle was predominantly oriented in the positive solar sector.

.Forecast...
Positive polarity CH HSS influences are expected to wane over 30 Nov,
followed by a return to at or near ambient levels over 01-02 Dec.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels under waning
positive polarity CH HSS influences.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to reach active levels on 30 Nov as
positive polarity CH HSS influences gradually wane. Mostly quiet
conditions are expected to prevail on 01-02 Dec with the return of an
ambient solar wind environment.


27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2025 Nov 24     125           8          3
2025 Nov 25     125          12          5
2025 Nov 26     130          25          5
2025 Nov 27     135          25          5
2025 Nov 28     140          12          3
2025 Nov 29     145           8          3
2025 Nov 30     150           8          3
2025 Dec 01     155           5          2
2025 Dec 02     150           5          2
2025 Dec 03     155          25          5
2025 Dec 04     160          20          5
2025 Dec 05     170          12          4
2025 Dec 06     175          10          3
2025 Dec 07     170           8          3
2025 Dec 08     165           5          2
2025 Dec 09     160           5          2
2025 Dec 10     155           5          2
2025 Dec 11     150           5          2
2025 Dec 12     145           8          3
2025 Dec 13     135          18          5
2025 Dec 14     130          12          4
2025 Dec 15     130           5          2
2025 Dec 16     125           5          2
2025 Dec 17     125           8          3
2025 Dec 18     120          10          3
2025 Dec 19     120           8          3
2025 Dec 20     125           6          2


  • GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
    It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

  • DATA SOURCES: Learn more
    Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

  • 'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
    These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

    The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

    Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

  • Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
    The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

    Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

  • Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
    The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.
  • DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

    The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

    Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

  • ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

    ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
  • GOES Satalites: Learn more

    GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

  • Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
    Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
    These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
    There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.
  • User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
    If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
    Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

 

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.


v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
 
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
 
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
 
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
 
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)

  Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey