Presets:
close
Ovation: South
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Weather: TAS
Presets: Presets

Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 1497
Issue Time: 2026 Jun 03 0729 UTC

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2026 Jun 03 0657 UTC
Estimate Velocity: 313 km/s

Comment:

Space Weather Message Code: SUM10R
Serial Number: 916
Issue Time: 2026 Jun 03 0717 UTC

SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2026 Jun 03 0657 UTC
Maximum Time: 2026 Jun 03 0657 UTC
End Time: 2026 Jun 03 0700 UTC
Peak Flux: 540 sfu
Duration: 3 minutes
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 146 sfu

Comment: Castelli-U signature. Corrected duration.
Castelli-U signature. Corrected duration.

Space Weather Message Code: SUMXM5
Serial Number: 318
Issue Time: 2026 Jun 03 0715 UTC

SUMMARY: X-ray Event exceeded M5
Begin Time: 2026 Jun 03 0648 UTC
Maximum Time: 2026 Jun 03 0700 UTC
End Time: 2026 Jun 03 0707 UTC
Xray Class: M7.7
Optical Class: 2B
Location: N08W14
Noaa Scale: R2 - Moderate

Comment:
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered primarily on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth.
Radio - Limited blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for tens of minutes.

Space Weather Message Code: SUM10R
Serial Number: 916
Issue Time: 2026 Jun 03 0710 UTC

SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2026 Jun 03 0657 UTC
Maximum Time: 2026 Jun 03 0657 UTC
End Time: 2026 Jun 03 0658 UTC
Peak Flux: 540 sfu
Duration: 1 minutes
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 146 sfu

Comment: Castelli-U signature
Castelli-U signature

Space Weather Message Code: ALTXMF
Serial Number: 530
Issue Time: 2026 Jun 03 0700 UTC

ALERT: X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2026 Jun 03 0700 UTC
Noaa Scale: R2 - Moderate

Comment:
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap.

Space Weather Message Code: SUM10R
Serial Number: 915
Issue Time: 2026 Jun 03 0215 UTC

SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2026 Jun 03 0126 UTC
Maximum Time: 2026 Jun 03 0130 UTC
End Time: 2026 Jun 04 0131 UTC
Peak Flux: 360 sfu
Duration: 5 minutes
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 146 sfu

Comment:

Space Weather Message Code: SUMXM5
Serial Number: 317
Issue Time: 2026 Jun 03 0156 UTC

SUMMARY: X-ray Event exceeded M5
Begin Time: 2026 Jun 03 0122 UTC
Maximum Time: 2026 Jun 03 0136 UTC
End Time: 2026 Jun 04 0143 UTC
Xray Class: M9.3
Optical Class: sf
Location: N13W05
Noaa Scale: R2 - Moderate

Comment:
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered primarily on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth.
Radio - Limited blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for tens of minutes.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP4
Serial Number: 710
Issue Time: 2026 Jun 03 0143 UTC

ALERT: Type IV Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2026 Jun 03 0122 UTC

Comment:

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 1496
Issue Time: 2026 Jun 03 0142 UTC

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2026 Jun 03 0057 UTC
Estimate Velocity: 253 km/s

Comment:

Space Weather Message Code: ALTXMF
Serial Number: 529
Issue Time: 2026 Jun 03 0137 UTC

ALERT: X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2026 Jun 03 0131 UTC
Noaa Scale: R2 - Moderate

Comment:
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 1495
Issue Time: 2026 Jun 02 1718 UTC

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2026 Jun 02 1652 UTC
Estimate Velocity: 631 km/s

Comment: Uncertain if the sweep was associated with a limb event or an M3 solar flare that occurred at similar times.
Uncertain if the sweep was associated with a limb event or an M3 solar flare that occurred at similar times.

Space Weather Message Code: SUM10R
Serial Number: 914
Issue Time: 2026 Jun 02 1657 UTC

SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2026 Jun 02 1642 UTC
Maximum Time: 2026 Jun 02 1642 UTC
End Time: 2026 Jun 02 1643 UTC
Peak Flux: 150 sfu
Duration: 1 minutes
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 137 sfu

Comment: COR for end date. Event only lasted 1 minute.
COR for end date. Event only lasted 1 minute.

Space Weather Message Code: SUM10R
Serial Number: 914
Issue Time: 2026 Jun 02 1654 UTC

SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2026 Jun 02 1642 UTC
Maximum Time: 2026 Jun 02 1642 UTC
End Time: 2026 Jun 03 1643 UTC
Peak Flux: 150 sfu
Duration: 1 minutes
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 137 sfu

Comment:


Solar-terrestrial indices for 02 June follow.
Solar flux 146 and estimated planetary A-index 6.
The estimated planetary K-index at 0600 UTC on 03 June was 2.33.

Space weather for the past 24 hours has been moderate.
Radio blackouts reaching the R2 level occurred.

No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.


Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 01 Jun 009
Estimated Ap 02 Jun 007
Predicted Ap 03 Jun-05 Jun 010-014-012

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jun-05 Jun
Active                40/40/40
Minor storm           15/25/25
Moderate storm        01/05/05
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 03 Jun - 05 Jun
             Jun 03    Jun 04    Jun 05
00-03UT        1.67      3.67      3.67
03-06UT        2.00      3.00      2.67
06-09UT        1.33      2.67      2.67
09-12UT        1.00      2.33      2.33
12-15UT        1.67      2.33      2.00
15-18UT        3.00      2.67      2.33
18-21UT        3.33      3.00      3.00
21-00UT        3.33      3.33      2.67


Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 03-Jun 05 2026 is 3.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 03-Jun 05 2026

             Jun 03       Jun 04       Jun 05
00-03UT       1.67         3.67         3.67
03-06UT       2.00         3.00         2.67
06-09UT       1.33         2.67         2.67
09-12UT       1.00         2.33         2.33
12-15UT       1.67         2.33         2.00
15-18UT       3.00         2.67         2.33
18-21UT       3.33         3.00         3.00
21-00UT       3.33         3.33         2.67

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 03-Jun 05 2026

              Jun 03  Jun 04  Jun 05
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Jun 02 2026 1650 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 03-Jun 05 2026

              Jun 03        Jun 04        Jun 05
R1-R2           50%           50%           50%
R3 or greater   10%           10%           10%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts,
and a slight chance for R3 (Strong) or greater blackouts through 05 Jun.


Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels. Frequent C-class and three
separate M-class flares were observed during the period. The largest
event was an M3.3 flare at 02/1642 UTC from Region 4455 (N13W05,
Cko/beta). Activity was primarily driven by Region 4455 and newly
numbered Region 4461 (S20E72, Dao/beta).

There are nine numbered regions on the visible disk. Region 4455 remains
complex, displaying an anti-Hale configuration caused by a series of
small negative polarity spots developing south and west of its mature
positive spot. Additionally, several small positive polarity spots
emerged north of Region 4455 and moved steadily northward. Region 4457
(S08W40, Bxo/beta) broke its decaying trend, showing a surge of new flux
emergence. Region 4458 (S04E07, Dsi/beta) also showed new emergence with
hear as its polarities consolidated. Region 4459 (N14E21, Cso/beta)
displayed steady consolidation. Region 4460 (N22W59, Dro/beta) was
numbered this period and showed quick development on the disk. Region
4461 and Region 4462 (N17E75, Dao/beta) were also numbered this period
after rotating onto the east limb, though severe foreshortening effects
prevent a high-confidence analysis of their complexity and full physical
extent. The remaining regions were stable or in decay.

Several eruptions were seen in available imagery. Two narrow C-class
associated eruptions from Region 4455 were observed in LASCO C2 data at
0312 UTC and 0724 UTC respectively. These eruptions were deflected
northward, likely away from an adjacent negative polarity coronal hole,
placing them well north of the ecliptic plane with no factor to Earth.

At 0900 UTC, a large filament was observed erupting from approximately
S07E65 in GOES SUVI imagery. Modeling confirms no Earth-directed
component.

The M3.3 flare from Region 4455 produced wideband frequency radio
emissions, including a 10cm radio burst peaking at 150 pfu and a Type II
radio burst with an estimated shock velocity of 631 km/s. This activity
coincided with a large far-sided eruption that produced a CME visible in
LASCO C2 at 1700 UTC and CCOR1 at 1745 UTC off to the northeast.
Localized coronal dimming seen in SUVI 195 near Region 4455 suggests a
front-side eruption occurred with the flare, although a definitive CME
signature is not clear in near-Earth coronagraph data. It remains
possible that the Type II radio signature was instead associated with
the simultaneous far-sided eruption. Analysis of this event is ongoing.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels through 05
June with a high chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flaring and a
slight chance for X-class (R3/Strong or greater) primarily due to
Regions 4455, 4458, 4461, and 4462.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at low
to moderate levels with a peak flux of 684 pfu observed at 02/1815 UTC.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at
background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at low to
moderate levels through 05 June. Barring any major eruptive activity,
the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is anticipated to continue at
background levels through 05 June.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters continued to reflect slightly elevated background
conditions under the residual influences of a negative polarity coronal
hole high-speed stream. Total magnetic field (Bt) averaged near 6 nT.
The North-South (Bz) component was variable, spending significant
periods deflected southward and reached a maximum deflection of -7 nT
later in the period. Solar wind speeds varied slightly but held steady
around 400 km/s. The phi angle was predominantly in the negative
(towards the Sun) sector.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are anticipated to continue a general decline back
toward a nominal background regime through the beginning of 03 June.
Minor enhancements remain possible early to midday on 03 June due to
low-confidence glancing influences from the slow 30 May CME. Late on 03
June or early on 04 June, more significant enhancements are expected
with the arrival of a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) preceding a
positive polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (+CH HSS). Elevated
conditions driven by the +CH HSS are expected to persist through 05
June.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
Geomagnetic field conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled, with
a small chance for isolated active levels, due to on 03 June due to low
confidence 30 May CME influences and anticipated CIR effects. Unsettled
to active conditions, with a chance for isolated G1 (Minor) geomagnetic
storming periods, are anticipated on 04-05 June due to +CH HSS
influences. A chance for G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming 4-5 June is
further heightened by the possibility of a transient arrival associated
with the M3.3 flare, whose signature may have been obscured in available
imagery.


27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2026 Jun 01     135          10          4
2026 Jun 02     135           8          3
2026 Jun 03     130          14          4
2026 Jun 04     130          12          4
2026 Jun 05     125          10          4
2026 Jun 06     125           8          3
2026 Jun 07     125           5          2
2026 Jun 08     120           5          2
2026 Jun 09     120           5          2
2026 Jun 10     130           5          2
2026 Jun 11     135          30          6
2026 Jun 12     135          25          5
2026 Jun 13     130          12          4
2026 Jun 14     130          10          4
2026 Jun 15     140           8          3
2026 Jun 16     140           5          2
2026 Jun 17     150           5          2
2026 Jun 18     155           5          2
2026 Jun 19     160           5          2
2026 Jun 20     160           5          2
2026 Jun 21     165           8          3
2026 Jun 22     160           8          3
2026 Jun 23     155          10          4
2026 Jun 24     145          15          4
2026 Jun 25     145          15          4
2026 Jun 26     150          15          4
2026 Jun 27     150          15          4


  • GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
    It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

  • DATA SOURCES: Learn more
    Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

  • 'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
    These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

    The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

    Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

  • Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
    The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

    Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

  • Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
    The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.
  • DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

    The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

    Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

  • ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

    ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
  • GOES Satalites: Learn more

    GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

  • Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
    Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
    These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
    There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.
  • User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
    If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
    Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

 

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.


v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
 
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
 
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
 
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
 
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)

  Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey