Aurora Forecast

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27 Day

Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: SUMXM5
Serial Number: 316
Issue Time: 2026 May 10 1414 UTC

SUMMARY: X-ray Event exceeded M5
Begin Time: 2026 May 10 1319 UTC
Maximum Time: 2026 May 10 1339 UTC
End Time: 2026 May 10 1402 UTC
Xray Class: M5.7
Optical Class:
Location: N18E65
Noaa Scale: R2 - Moderate

Comment:
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered primarily on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth.
Radio - Limited blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for tens of minutes.

Space Weather Message Code: SUM10R
Serial Number: 911
Issue Time: 2026 May 10 1355 UTC

SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2026 May 10 1328 UTC
Maximum Time: 2026 May 10 1334 UTC
End Time: 2026 May 10 1343 UTC
Peak Flux: 550 sfu
Duration: 15 minutes
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 122 sfu

Comment:

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 1484
Issue Time: 2026 May 10 1347 UTC

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2026 May 10 1329 UTC
Estimate Velocity: 650 km/s

Comment:

Space Weather Message Code: ALTXMF
Serial Number: 528
Issue Time: 2026 May 10 1338 UTC

ALERT: X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2026 May 10 1335 UTC
Noaa Scale: R2 - Moderate

Comment:
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap.

Solar-terrestrial indices for 10 May follow.
Solar flux 126 and estimated planetary A-index 5.
The estimated planetary K-index at 0600 UTC on 11 May was 1.67.

Space weather for the past 24 hours has been moderate.
Radio blackouts reaching the R2 level occurred.

No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.

Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 09 May 005
Estimated Ap 10 May 005
Predicted Ap 11 May-13 May 008-005-010

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 May-13 May
Active                25/15/25
Minor storm           10/01/10
Moderate storm        01/01/01
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 11 May - 13 May
             May 11    May 12    May 13
00-03UT        1.67      1.67      1.67
03-06UT        2.67      1.67      2.67
06-09UT        2.67      1.33      2.67
09-12UT        1.67      1.33      2.33
12-15UT        1.33      1.33      2.33
15-18UT        1.33      0.67      2.00
18-21UT        2.00      1.67      2.33
21-00UT        2.67      1.67      2.67

Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 11-May 13 2026 is 2.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown May 11-May 13 2026

             May 11       May 12       May 13
00-03UT       1.67         1.67         1.67
03-06UT       2.67         1.67         2.67
06-09UT       2.67         1.33         2.67
09-12UT       1.67         1.33         2.33
12-15UT       1.33         1.33         2.33
15-18UT       1.33         0.67         2.00
18-21UT       2.00         1.67         2.33
21-00UT       2.67         1.67         2.67

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-19 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 11-May 13 2026

              May 11  May 12  May 13
S1 or greater   20%     20%     20%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at May 10 2026 1339 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for May 11-May 13 2026

              May 11        May 12        May 13
R1-R2           45%           45%           45%
R3 or greater   20%           20%           20%

Rationale: There exists a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts, with a slight chance for R3 (Strong), over 11-13 May.

Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels following an M5.7/2b flare at
10/1339 UTC, accompanied by Type-II (est. 650-1,736 km/s) and
Tenflare (550 sfu) radio emissions, from Region 4436 (N19E55, Dao/beta).
The associated partial halo CME, first visible at 10/1348 UTC off the
east in LASCO C2 imagery, is being analyzed for a potential
Earth-directed component, however, the bulk of ejecta appears to be
directed well east of the Sun-Earth line.

Region 4432 (N14W56, Ekc/beta-gamma) increased in areal extent and
magnetic complexity, and produced nearly all of the C-class flare
activity observed this period. The remaining numbered regions were
relatively stable and quiet.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at predominately low levels over 11-13
May, with a chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares and a
slight chance for an X-class (R3-Strong or greater) flare.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.
The greater than 10 MeV electron flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate
levels on 11-13 May. There is a slight chance for the greater than 10
MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) levels on 11-13 May.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind environment reflected waning positive polarity CH HSS
influences followed by the return of ambient conditions. Total magnetic
field strength reached 6 nT, while the Bz component remained near
neutral. Solar wind speeds underwent a decline from near 460 km/s to
near 380 km/s by the end of the period.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are likely to be mildly enhanced on 11 and 13 May
due to weak positive polarity CH HSS influences. Background conditions
are expected to prevail on 12 May.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on
11 and 13 May due to weak positive polarity CH HSS influences. Mostly
quiet conditions are likely to prevail on 12 May.

27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2026 May 11     128           8          3
2026 May 12     128           5          2
2026 May 13     122          10          3
2026 May 14     130           5          2
2026 May 15     125          25          5
2026 May 16     125          20          5
2026 May 17     120          18          5
2026 May 18     122          15          4
2026 May 19     130           5          2
2026 May 20     130           5          2
2026 May 21     130           8          3
2026 May 22     120          10          3
2026 May 23     125          12          4
2026 May 24     125           5          2
2026 May 25     125           5          2
2026 May 26     130           5          2
2026 May 27     135          12          4
2026 May 28     135          10          3
2026 May 29     130           8          3
2026 May 30     125           8          3
2026 May 31     122           8          3
2026 Jun 01     118           5          2
2026 Jun 02     115           5          2
2026 Jun 03     120           5          2
2026 Jun 04     120          12          4
2026 Jun 05     120           5          2
2026 Jun 06     120           5          2

Save as 'My Presets'

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.
From Date: (YYYY-MM-DD HH:MM). Leave empty for real-time.

Range: (in hours, WARNING 1 hour = ~10KB of data)
Local Time Zone:
Enable Forecast / Timeshift (Recommended) Enable Fixed Y Axis Values Combine Y Series (B*, Proton, Dyn Preasure & Kp). Show Axis Titles Show Graph Legend (Keys) Enable Auto Update (Range will be reduced to 2 hours) Enable Night Vision Red Theme

DATA SOURCES: Learn more
Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.
'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

AF Index (Experemental) AF Community Activity (Hits)
Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

SWPC Kp (Observation)
SWPC Kp (Prediction) GeoSpace Kp (Prediction) Wing Kp (Legacy : Date < 22/06/18)
Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.

Northern Hemisphere (Aurora Borealis) Southern Hemisphere (Aurora Australis)
DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

Mag Bt (Total Strength) Mag Bx (X Axis) Mag By (Y Axis) Mag Bz (Z Axis) Solar Wind Speed Proton Density Dynamic Pressure (Calculated)
ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
Show ACE (When enabled the forecasting / timeshift feature will be disabled)
GOES Satalites: Learn more

GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

Primary Secondary Variation (Pri - Sec)
Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.

Macquarie Island (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Mawson (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Canberra (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Ruru Obseratory (www.ruruobseratory.org.nz / NZ) Aurora Forecast #1 (Hobart) Aurora Forecast #2 (Hobart) Aurora Forecast #3 (Hobart)
User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.

v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)

v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.

v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).

v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.

> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)
Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

DATA SOURCES: Learn more Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

DATA SOURCES: Learn more
Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.