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Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 3596
Issue Time: 2026 Jan 07 1522 UTC

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 3595
Begin Time: 2026 Jan 06 1540 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 1326 pfu
Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

Space Weather Message Code: WATA20
Serial Number: 1086
Issue Time: 2026 Jan 06 2218 UTC

WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted
Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Jan 07:  None (Below G1)   Jan 08:  None (Below G1)   Jan 09:  G1 (Minor)
THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 3595
Issue Time: 2026 Jan 06 1622 UTC

ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Threshold Reached: 2026 Jan 06 1540 UTC
Station: GOES19
Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.


Solar-terrestrial indices for 06 January follow.
Solar flux 145 and estimated planetary A-index 4.
The estimated planetary K-index at 1500 UTC on 07 January was 0.67.

No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.


Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 05 Jan 014
Estimated Ap 06 Jan 004
Predicted Ap 07 Jan-09 Jan 005-005-024

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jan-09 Jan
Active                10/10/35
Minor storm           01/01/35
Moderate storm        01/01/20
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 07 Jan - 09 Jan
             Jan 07    Jan 08    Jan 09
00-03UT        1.67      1.67      2.00
03-06UT        1.67      1.33      3.33
06-09UT        1.33      1.33      5.00
09-12UT        1.33      1.33      4.67
12-15UT        1.33      1.33      4.00
15-18UT        1.33      1.33      3.00
18-21UT        1.67      1.67      3.00
21-00UT        1.33      1.67      3.67


Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 07-Jan 09 2026 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 07-Jan 09 2026

             Jan 07       Jan 08       Jan 09
00-03UT       1.00         1.67         2.00
03-06UT       1.00         1.33         3.33
06-09UT       0.33         1.33         5.00 (G1)
09-12UT       0.33         1.33         4.67 (G1)
12-15UT       1.33         1.33         4.00
15-18UT       1.33         1.33         3.00
18-21UT       1.67         1.67         3.00
21-00UT       1.33         1.67         3.67

Rationale: G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are possible on 09
Jan due to potential compounded affects of a CIR and a CME that left the
Sun on 06 Jan.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 07-Jan 09 2026

              Jan 07  Jan 08  Jan 09
S1 or greater   10%     10%     10%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar
radiation storms are 07-09 Jan.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 07-Jan 09 2026

              Jan 07        Jan 08        Jan 09
R1-R2           40%           40%           40%
R3 or greater   10%           10%           10%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts,
with a slight chance for R3 (Strong) events, on 07-09 Jan.


Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was low. Regions 4323 (N17W77, Dso/beta), 4334 (S15E14,
Hax/alpha), and 4336 (S10E48, Eki/beta-gamma-delta) were responsible for
low level C-class activity. Growth and an increase in magnetic
complexity was observed in Region 4336 while separation occurred in
Region 4334. A new spotted group emerged near N26W32 but was inactive.
The rest of the spot groups appeared to be in decay.

Two CMEs were of note. The first was at 06/0212 UTC off the ESE,
associated with a C2.1 flare at 06/0021 UTC from Region 4334. Modeling
suggests a potential glancing effects early on 09 Jan. The second was a
CME off the NE at 06/1648 UTC associated with a C4.0 flare at 06/1555
UTC. Modeling suggests that the chance for a glancing blow from this
CME is minimal, but it may become entangled with the previous CME.

Additional CME activity was observed off the SE limb starting at 07/0542
UTC, likely associated with C-flares from Region 4334. Modeling efforts
determined this ejecta to be to the south and behind Earths orbit.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares
(R1-R2, Minor-Moderate), and a slight chance for isolated X-class
flares (R3-Strong) over 07-09 Jan.


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak of
1,326 pfu observed at 06/1635 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to
high levels through 08 Jan followed by a decrease to moderate levels on
09 Jan with the arrival of a CH HSS. There is a slight chance for a
greater than 10 MeV proton event through 09 Jan.


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels. Solar wind speed ranged
from 325-400 km/s. Total magnetic field (Bt) ranged from 2-7 nT while
the Bz (north-south) component was between +5/-5 nT. Phi angle was
predominantly negative (towards the Sun).

.Forecast...
Near nominal conditions are expected on 07-08 Jan. An enhancement in
parameters is expected early on 09 Jan with the arrival of a CIR/CH HSS.
Solar wind speeds in excess of 600 km/s is likely based on recurrent
values.


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on 07-08 Jan.
Unsettled to G1 (Minor) storm conditions are expected beginning early on
09 Jan with the arrival of CIR/CH HSS influences.


27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2026 Jan 05     155          10          3
2026 Jan 06     150           5          2
2026 Jan 07     145           5          2
2026 Jan 08     140           5          2
2026 Jan 09     135           8          3
2026 Jan 10     135           8          3
2026 Jan 11     130           5          2
2026 Jan 12     135          10          3
2026 Jan 13     135          15          5
2026 Jan 14     140          15          5
2026 Jan 15     145           5          2
2026 Jan 16     145           5          2
2026 Jan 17     145          20          5
2026 Jan 18     140          20          5
2026 Jan 19     145          18          5
2026 Jan 20     150          18          5
2026 Jan 21     155           8          3
2026 Jan 22     160           8          3
2026 Jan 23     165           6          2
2026 Jan 24     170           6          2
2026 Jan 25     175           6          2
2026 Jan 26     175           6          2
2026 Jan 27     170           8          3
2026 Jan 28     165          12          4
2026 Jan 29     160          20          5
2026 Jan 30     155          10          3
2026 Jan 31     160           8          3


  • GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
    It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

  • DATA SOURCES: Learn more
    Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

  • 'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
    These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

    The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

    Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

  • Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
    The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

    Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

  • Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
    The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.
  • DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

    The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

    Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

  • ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

    ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
  • GOES Satalites: Learn more

    GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

  • Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
    Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
    These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
    There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.
  • User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
    If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
    Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

 

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.


v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
 
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
 
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
 
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
 
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)

  Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey