Presets:
close
Ovation: South
North
Weather: TAS
Presets: Presets

Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: WARK05
Serial Number: 2246
Issue Time: 2026 Jul 04 0125 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2026 Jul 04 0100 UTC
Valid To: 2026 Jul 04 0600 UTC
Warning Conditions: Onset
Noaa Scale: G1 - Minor

Comment: Correcting for wrong end date
Correcting for wrong end dateNOAA Scale: G1 - Minor
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5375
Issue Time: 2026 Jul 04 0124 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 5374
Valid From: 2026 Jul 03 1209 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2026 Jul 04 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK05
Serial Number: 2246
Issue Time: 2026 Jul 04 0101 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2026 Jul 04 0100 UTC
Valid To: 2026 Jul 05 0600 UTC
Warning Conditions: Onset
Noaa Scale: G1 - Minor

Comment:
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK04
Serial Number: 2670
Issue Time: 2026 Jul 03 2054 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2026 Jul 03 2049 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1800-2100
Active Warning: YES

Comment:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: SUM10R
Serial Number: 921
Issue Time: 2026 Jul 03 2020 UTC

SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2026 Jul 03 1856 UTC
Maximum Time: 2026 Jul 03 1857 UTC
End Time: 2026 Jul 04 1859 UTC
Peak Flux: 780 sfu
Duration: 3 minutes
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 203 sfu

Comment:

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 1510
Issue Time: 2026 Jul 03 1939 UTC

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2026 Jul 03 1900 UTC
Estimate Velocity: 579 km/s

Comment:

Space Weather Message Code: SUMXM5
Serial Number: 323
Issue Time: 2026 Jul 03 1911 UTC

SUMMARY: X-ray Event exceeded M5
Begin Time: 2026 Jul 03 1857 UTC
Maximum Time: 2026 Jul 03 1859 UTC
End Time: 2026 Jul 04 1903 UTC
Xray Class: M6.3
Optical Class:
Location: S06W46
Noaa Scale: R2 - Moderate

Comment:
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered primarily on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth.
Radio - Limited blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for tens of minutes.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTXMF
Serial Number: 537
Issue Time: 2026 Jul 03 1900 UTC

ALERT: X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2026 Jul 03 1856 UTC
Noaa Scale: R2 - Moderate

Comment:
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap.

Space Weather Message Code: SUMXM5
Serial Number: 322
Issue Time: 2026 Jul 03 1859 UTC

SUMMARY: X-ray Event exceeded M5
Begin Time: 2026 Jul 03 1749 UTC
Maximum Time: 2026 Jul 03 1811 UTC
End Time: 2026 Jul 04 1832 UTC
Xray Class: M6.7
Optical Class:
Location: N17W66
Noaa Scale: R2 - Moderate

Comment:
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered primarily on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth.
Radio - Limited blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for tens of minutes.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 1509
Issue Time: 2026 Jul 03 1847 UTC

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2026 Jul 03 1805 UTC
Estimate Velocity: 1831 km/s

Comment:

Space Weather Message Code: SUM10R
Serial Number: 920
Issue Time: 2026 Jul 03 1818 UTC

SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2026 Jul 03 1806 UTC
Maximum Time: 2026 Jul 03 1808 UTC
End Time: 2026 Jul 04 1809 UTC
Peak Flux: 220 sfu
Duration: 3 minutes
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 203 sfu

Comment:

Space Weather Message Code: ALTXMF
Serial Number: 536
Issue Time: 2026 Jul 03 1810 UTC

ALERT: X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2026 Jul 03 1807 UTC
Noaa Scale: R2 - Moderate

Comment:
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5374
Issue Time: 2026 Jul 03 1209 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2026 Jul 03 1209 UTC
Valid To: 2026 Jul 04 0300 UTC
Warning Conditions: Onset

Comment:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: WARSUD
Serial Number: 256
Issue Time: 2026 Jul 03 1138 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected
Valid From: 2026 Jul 03 1157 UTC
Valid To: 2026 Jul 03 1227 UTC
Ip Shock: 2026-07-03 11:20

Comment:

Space Weather Message Code: WATA30
Serial Number: 278
Issue Time: 2026 Jul 03 1123 UTC

WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G2 Predicted
Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Jul 03:  G2 (Moderate)   Jul 04:  G2 (Moderate)   Jul 05:  G1 (Minor)
THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT

Comment: Added G1 (Minor) Watch for 05 Jul.
Added G1 (Minor) Watch for 05 Jul.
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.


Solar-terrestrial indices for 03 July follow.
Solar flux 187 and estimated planetary A-index 10.
The estimated planetary K-index at 0000 UTC on 04 July was 3.67.

Space weather for the past 24 hours has been moderate.
Radio blackouts reaching the R2 level occurred.

Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be moderate.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G2 level are likely.
Radio blackouts reaching the R2 level are likely.


Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 02 Jul 004
Estimated Ap 03 Jul 012
Predicted Ap 04 Jul-06 Jul 030-018-015

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jul-06 Jul
Active                25/30/35
Minor storm           30/35/20
Moderate storm        30/15/05
Strong-Extreme storm  10/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 04 Jul - 06 Jul
             Jul 04    Jul 05    Jul 06
00-03UT        5.67      2.67      3.00
03-06UT        4.67      2.33      4.00
06-09UT        4.33      2.33      3.33
09-12UT        4.33      2.33      3.33
12-15UT        3.67      2.33      3.00
15-18UT        3.67      2.33      3.00
18-21UT        3.33      4.67      2.00
21-00UT        2.33      5.00      2.00


Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 04-Jul 06 2026 is 5.67 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 04-Jul 06 2026

             Jul 04       Jul 05       Jul 06
00-03UT       5.67 (G2)    2.67         3.00
03-06UT       4.67 (G1)    2.33         4.00
06-09UT       4.33         2.33         3.33
09-12UT       4.33         2.33         3.33
12-15UT       3.67         2.33         3.00
15-18UT       3.67         2.33         3.00
18-21UT       3.33         4.67 (G1)    2.00
21-00UT       2.33         5.00 (G1)    2.00

Rationale: CME arrival from the event on 30 June is likely to bring G1
(Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions, with a chance for G2 (Moderate)
levels early on 04 Jul. Further CME activity from 01-02 Jul, combined
with possible influences from +CH72, are likely to bring active to
additional G1 (Minor) storm conditions on 05 Jul, with isolated periods
of G2 (Moderate) levels possible.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 04-Jul 06 2026

              Jul 04  Jul 05  Jul 06
S1 or greater   20%     20%     10%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar
radiation storms through 06 Jul due to the more geoeffective locations
of the complex regions on the solar disk.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Jul 03 2026 1811 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 04-Jul 06 2026

              Jul 04        Jul 05        Jul 06
R1-R2           70%           70%           55%
R3 or greater   20%           20%           10%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a
slight chance for R3 (Strong) or greater events, through 06 Jul.


Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at moderate levels due to multiple (R2-Moderate)
flares from Region 4478 (S06W46, Fko/beta-gamma) and 4479 (N17W66,
Fkc/beta-gamma-delta). Region 4479 produced an M6.7 flare at 03/1811
UTC. Associated with this event was a Type II sweep (estimated velocity
of 1,831 km/s) and a 203 sfu Tenflare. Shortly afterward, Region 4478
produced an impulsive M6.3/2b flare at 03/1859 UTC. Associated with this
flare was a 780 sfu Tenflare and a Type II sweep (estimated velocity of
387 km/s). Earlier in the period Region 4480 (S18W70, Eai/beta-gamma)
produced an (R1-Minor) M1.4/1f flare at 03/1313 UTC. All three regions
exhibited decay throughout the period, with Region 4478 losing its delta
configuration. New Region 4481 (N14E62, Hsx/alpha) was numbered this
period.

LASCO C2 imagery detected a slow-moving CME off the NWN portion of the
disk, first visible at 03/1824 UTC. A potential Earth-directed component
will be analyzed as more imagery becomes available.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to remain at moderate levels (R1-R2,
Minor-Moderate) with a slight chance for X-class flares (R3-Strong),
through 06 Jul.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels, while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux
remained at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to increase to moderate
to high levels on 04-06 Jul. There is a slight chance for a greater than
10 MeV proton event (S1-Minor) due to the recent and potential flare
activity of Regions 4478 and 4479 on 04-06 Jul.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected near-background levels until about
03/1119 UTC when reflections of a weak CME was detected: wind speeds
increased from about 325 km/s to 460 km/s, total field strength (Bt)
jumped from an average of 6 nT to 11 nT, though the Bz component was
mostly weakly north. After 03/1119 UTC, wind speeds further increased to
near 550 km/s by periods end. The Bt component reached a max of 21 nT at
03/2342 UTC, while Bz varied between +10 to -16 nt. The phi angle
remained in a mostly positive orientation (away from the Sun) until
roughly 03/2125 UTC when it flipped to the negative sector.

.Forecast...
Disturbed solar wind conditions, likely from the 30 Jun CME, are
expected to persist into early 04 July. Possible influence from +CH72
combined with additional CME activity from 01-02 Jul events are likely
later on 04 Jul, persisting through 05-06 Jul.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels.

.Forecast...
CME arrival from the event on 30 June is likely to bring G1 (Minor)
geomagnetic storm conditions, with a chance for G2 (Moderate) levels,
on 04 Jul. Further CME activity from 01-02 Jul, combined with possible
influences from +CH72, are likely to bring active to additional G1
(Minor) storm conditions on 05 Jul, with an isolated period of G2
(Moderate) levels possible. 06 Jul is likely to see a lessened activity
as influences wane.


27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2026 Jun 29     175          10          5
2026 Jun 30     180          25          5
2026 Jul 01     175          12          4
2026 Jul 02     170           8          3
2026 Jul 03     175           5          2
2026 Jul 04     170           5          2
2026 Jul 05     160           5          2
2026 Jul 06     160           5          2
2026 Jul 07     155           5          2
2026 Jul 08     155          12          4
2026 Jul 09     150          12          4
2026 Jul 10     140           8          3
2026 Jul 11     140           5          2
2026 Jul 12     135           5          2
2026 Jul 13     130           5          2
2026 Jul 14     135           5          2
2026 Jul 15     140           5          2
2026 Jul 16     140          10          3
2026 Jul 17     145           8          3
2026 Jul 18     150           5          2
2026 Jul 19     145           5          2
2026 Jul 20     145           5          2
2026 Jul 21     145           5          2
2026 Jul 22     150          15          5
2026 Jul 23     155          12          4
2026 Jul 24     155           8          3
2026 Jul 25     155           8          3


  • GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
    It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

  • DATA SOURCES: Learn more
    Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

  • 'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
    These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

    The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

    Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

  • Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
    The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

    Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

  • Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
    The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.
  • DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

    The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

    Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

  • ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

    ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
  • GOES Satalites: Learn more

    GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

  • Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
    Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
    These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
    There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.
  • User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
    If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
    Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

 

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.


v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
 
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
 
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
 
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
 
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)

  Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
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Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey