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Weather: TAS
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Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: WATA20
Serial Number: 1100
Issue Time: 2026 Mar 11 2152 UTC

WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted
Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Mar 12:  None (Below G1)   Mar 13:  G1 (Minor)   Mar 14:  G1 (Minor)
THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 3644
Issue Time: 2026 Mar 11 1004 UTC

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 3643
Begin Time: 2026 Mar 08 1510 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 1726 pfu
Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5282
Issue Time: 2026 Mar 11 0257 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 5281
Valid From: 2026 Mar 10 1752 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2026 Mar 11 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.


Solar-terrestrial indices for 11 March follow.
Solar flux 123 and estimated planetary A-index 9.
The estimated planetary K-index at 0000 UTC on 12 March was 1.33.

No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.


Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 10 Mar 014
Estimated Ap 11 Mar 009
Predicted Ap 12 Mar-14 Mar 008-020-020

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Mar-14 Mar
Active                20/35/35
Minor storm           01/40/40
Moderate storm        01/15/15
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 12 Mar - 14 Mar
             Mar 12    Mar 13    Mar 14
00-03UT        3.00      1.67      4.67
03-06UT        2.67      1.33      4.00
06-09UT        2.00      1.33      4.00
09-12UT        1.33      2.67      3.00
12-15UT        1.33      3.33      2.67
15-18UT        1.67      5.00      2.33
18-21UT        1.33      4.33      2.33
21-00UT        1.67      4.33      3.67


Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 12-Mar 14 2026 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 12-Mar 14 2026

             Mar 12       Mar 13       Mar 14
00-03UT       3.00         1.67         4.67 (G1)
03-06UT       2.67         1.33         4.00
06-09UT       2.00         1.33         4.00
09-12UT       1.33         2.67         3.00
12-15UT       1.33         3.33         2.67
15-18UT       1.67         5.00 (G1)    2.33
18-21UT       1.33         4.33         2.33
21-00UT       1.67         4.33         3.67

Rationale: Isolated periods of G1 (Minor) storming are possible on 13
and 14 Mar due to onset of positive polarity coronal hole high speed
stream (+CH HSS).

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 12-Mar 14 2026

              Mar 12  Mar 13  Mar 14
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 12-Mar 14 2026

              Mar 12        Mar 13        Mar 14
R1-R2           20%           20%           20%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: There exists a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts over 12-14 Mar.


Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low to low. Only low level C-class activity was
observed from Regions 4384 (N08W57, Cao/beta) and 4389 (N13E46,
Ero/beta). Slight growth was observed in Regions 4384 and 4391 (N06E34,
Cro/beta). New Region 4392 (S15E78, Hsx/alpha) was numbered. The rest of
the spot groups were either stable or in decay. No Earth-directed CMEs
were observed.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a slight chance for
M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares through 14 Mar.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak
flux of 2,076 pfu observed at 11/1825 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on
12-13 Mar. A decrease to normal to moderate levels is likely on 14 Mar
due to CH HSS onset. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to
continue at background levels through 14 Mar.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were enhanced through 11/0920 UTC. Solar wind
speed ranged from approximately 480 to 570 km/s during this time but
decreased to around 400-460 km/s through the rest of the period. Total
field was relatively steady at 6 nT while the Bz component was between
+4/-5 nT. Phi angle was negative.

.Forecast...
Near nominal levels are expected to return on 12 Mar before enhancements
are again expected around midday on 13 Mar due to the onset of a
positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream. HSS activity will
persist through 14 Mar.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 12 Mar.
Onset of a CIR/CH HSS is expected around midday on 13 Mar causing
unsettled to active conditions with G1 (Minor) storm conditions likely.
Unsettled to G1 (Minor) conditions are expected to persist through 14
Mar.


27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2026 Mar 09     135          12          4
2026 Mar 10     130          10          3
2026 Mar 11     125           8          3
2026 Mar 12     120           5          2
2026 Mar 13     115           5          2
2026 Mar 14     110          20          5
2026 Mar 15     110          15          4
2026 Mar 16     110          10          3
2026 Mar 17     110          10          3
2026 Mar 18     110          10          3
2026 Mar 19     105          12          4
2026 Mar 20     110          15          4
2026 Mar 21     110          35          6
2026 Mar 22     110          24          5
2026 Mar 23     115          15          4
2026 Mar 24     115          15          4
2026 Mar 25     120          18          5
2026 Mar 26     125          10          3
2026 Mar 27     130           8          3
2026 Mar 28     130           8          3
2026 Mar 29     130           5          2
2026 Mar 30     130          14          3
2026 Mar 31     130           6          2
2026 Apr 01     135           5          2
2026 Apr 02     130          10          3
2026 Apr 03     130          20          5
2026 Apr 04     130          25          5


  • GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
    It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

  • DATA SOURCES: Learn more
    Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

  • 'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
    These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

    The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

    Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

  • Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
    The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

    Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

  • Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
    The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.
  • DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

    The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

    Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

  • ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

    ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
  • GOES Satalites: Learn more

    GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

  • Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
    Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
    These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
    There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.
  • User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
    If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
    Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

 

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.


v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
 
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
 
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
 
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
 
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)

  Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey