Aurora Forecast

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27 Day

Alerts:
none

Solar-terrestrial indices for 21 May follow.
Solar flux 118 and estimated planetary A-index 7.
The estimated planetary K-index at 0600 UTC on 22 May was 1.67.

No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.

Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 20 May 008
Estimated Ap 21 May 008
Predicted Ap 22 May-24 May 008-008-005

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 May-24 May
Active                35/25/15
Minor storm           10/05/05
Moderate storm        01/01/01
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 22 May - 24 May
             May 22    May 23    May 24
00-03UT        2.67      2.33      1.67
03-06UT        2.67      2.67      1.67
06-09UT        2.00      2.33      1.33
09-12UT        1.67      1.67      1.33
12-15UT        0.67      1.67      1.33
15-18UT        1.67      2.00      1.33
18-21UT        2.00      2.33      1.33
21-00UT        2.67      2.33      1.67

Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 22-May 24 2026 is 2.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown May 22-May 24 2026

             May 22       May 23       May 24
00-03UT       2.67         2.33         1.67
03-06UT       2.67         2.67         1.67
06-09UT       2.00         2.33         1.33
09-12UT       1.67         1.67         1.33
12-15UT       0.67         1.67         1.33
15-18UT       1.67         2.00         1.33
18-21UT       2.00         2.33         1.33
21-00UT       2.67         2.33         1.67

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-19 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 22-May 24 2026

              May 22  May 23  May 24
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for May 22-May 24 2026

              May 22        May 23        May 24
R1-R2           25%           25%           25%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
through 24 May.

Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached low levels following three C-class flares from
Region 4436 (N18W90, Csi/beta) as it approached the NW limb. The first
was a C5.6 at 21/1321 UTC, the second a C8.3 at 21/1814 UTC, and the
third a C9.5 at 21/1825 UTC. All three were impulsive, short duration
flares, with no discernable associated CMEs noted in coronagraph
imagery. Region 4436 appeared to continue adding spots as it reached the
limb, but foreshortening substantially inhibited analysis of the
magnetic structure of this region.

Regions 4441 (N08W45, Eai/beta-gamma) and 4443 (S16E10, Dao/beta)
exhibited growth during the period, but were relatively inactive. The
other numbered regions were stable or in decay. New Region 4444 (S21E65,
Hsx/alpha) was numbered and remained inactive.

The CME off the NW limb, mentioned in the previous discussion, was
analyzed and deemed to travel well ahead of Earths orbit.

No Earth directed CMEs were observed in available in coronagraph
imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to remain at low levels with a chance for
isolated M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) on 22-24 May, primarily
due to the complexity of Region 4441 and the recent flaring history of
Region 4436. Additionally, as multiple active regions (tracked via
far-side satellite and helioseismology imagery) rotate into view, an
increase in activity could occur on 23-24 May.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at
high levels, reaching a peak level of 2841 pfu at 21/1550 UTC. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at
background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at moderate
to high levels on 22-24 May as a new coronal hole high-speed stream is
expected to move into a geoeffective position. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux is expected to remain at background levels through 24 May.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected a return to near-background conditions.
Wind speeds gradually decreased throughout the reporting period, ending
the period at approximately 400 km/s. Total IMF averaged near 4 nT while
the Bz component varied between +/-5 nT. The phi angle remained largely
in a negative orientation.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to observe weak enhancements on 22-23
May as a positive polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (+CH HSS)
moves into a geoeffective position. Tapering of conditions is expected
by 24 May as the CH HSS moves out of position.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past
24 hours.

.Forecast...
Isolated unsettled periods are expected 22-23 May, with a chance for
isolated active periods, following an anticipated sector boundary
crossing and the onset of the approaching +CH HSS. Largely quiet levels
are anticipated on 24 May due to persistent, yet waning, +CH HSS
influences.

27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2026 May 18     105          21          5
2026 May 19     110          21          5
2026 May 20     115           8          3
2026 May 21     115          10          3
2026 May 22     110           8          3
2026 May 23     112           5          2
2026 May 24     112           5          2
2026 May 25     115           5          2
2026 May 26     115           5          2
2026 May 27     115          12          4
2026 May 28     120          10          3
2026 May 29     125           8          3
2026 May 30     130           8          3
2026 May 31     135           8          3
2026 Jun 01     130           5          2
2026 Jun 02     130           5          2
2026 Jun 03     130           5          2
2026 Jun 04     125          12          4
2026 Jun 05     120           5          2
2026 Jun 06     115           5          2
2026 Jun 07     110           5          2
2026 Jun 08     105           5          2
2026 Jun 09     105          10          3
2026 Jun 10     100           5          2
2026 Jun 11      95          30          6
2026 Jun 12      95          25          5
2026 Jun 13      95          12          4

Save as 'My Presets'

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.
From Date: (YYYY-MM-DD HH:MM). Leave empty for real-time.

Range: (in hours, WARNING 1 hour = ~10KB of data)
Local Time Zone:
Enable Forecast / Timeshift (Recommended) Enable Fixed Y Axis Values Combine Y Series (B*, Proton, Dyn Preasure & Kp). Show Axis Titles Show Graph Legend (Keys) Enable Auto Update (Range will be reduced to 2 hours) Enable Night Vision Red Theme

DATA SOURCES: Learn more
Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.
'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

AF Index (Experemental) AF Community Activity (Hits)
Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

SWPC Kp (Observation)
SWPC Kp (Prediction) GeoSpace Kp (Prediction) Wing Kp (Legacy : Date < 22/06/18)
Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.

Northern Hemisphere (Aurora Borealis) Southern Hemisphere (Aurora Australis)
DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

Mag Bt (Total Strength) Mag Bx (X Axis) Mag By (Y Axis) Mag Bz (Z Axis) Solar Wind Speed Proton Density Dynamic Pressure (Calculated)
ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
Show ACE (When enabled the forecasting / timeshift feature will be disabled)
GOES Satalites: Learn more

GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

Primary Secondary Variation (Pri - Sec)
Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.

Macquarie Island (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Mawson (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Canberra (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Ruru Obseratory (www.ruruobseratory.org.nz / NZ) Aurora Forecast #1 (Hobart) Aurora Forecast #2 (Hobart) Aurora Forecast #3 (Hobart)
User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.

v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)

v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.

v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).

v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.

> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)
Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

DATA SOURCES: Learn more Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

DATA SOURCES: Learn more
Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.