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Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: ALTK04
Serial Number: 2638
Issue Time: 2026 Mar 07 0206 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5277
Issue Time: 2026 Mar 07 0026 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2026 Mar 07 0025 UTC
Valid To: 2026 Mar 07 1800 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: WATA20
Serial Number: 1099
Issue Time: 2026 Mar 06 1752 UTC

CANCEL WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted
Cancel Serial Number: 1098
Original Issue Time: 2026 Mar 03 2305 UTC

Comment: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are no longer expected.
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.


Solar-terrestrial indices for 06 March follow.
Solar flux 143 and estimated planetary A-index 7.
The estimated planetary K-index at 0600 UTC on 07 March was 3.33.

No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.


Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 05 Mar 004
Estimated Ap 06 Mar 008
Predicted Ap 07 Mar-09 Mar 016-012-012

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Mar-09 Mar
Active                35/35/35
Minor storm           25/20/20
Moderate storm        05/05/05
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 07 Mar - 09 Mar
             Mar 07    Mar 08    Mar 09
00-03UT        2.67      2.67      2.67
03-06UT        3.67      3.67      2.67
06-09UT        3.67      2.67      3.67
09-12UT        2.67      2.67      2.67
12-15UT        2.67      1.67      1.67
15-18UT        2.67      1.67      1.67
18-21UT        2.67      2.67      2.67
21-00UT        3.67      3.00      2.67


Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 07-Mar 09 2026 is 3.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 07-Mar 09 2026

             Mar 07       Mar 08       Mar 09
00-03UT       2.67         2.67         2.67
03-06UT       3.67         3.67         2.67
06-09UT       3.67         2.67         3.67
09-12UT       2.67         2.67         2.67
12-15UT       2.67         1.67         1.67
15-18UT       2.67         1.67         1.67
18-21UT       2.67         2.67         2.67
21-00UT       3.67         3.00         2.67

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 07-Mar 09 2026

              Mar 07  Mar 08  Mar 09
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 07-Mar 09 2026

              Mar 07        Mar 08        Mar 09
R1-R2           20%           20%           20%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts through 09 Mar.


Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was low. Regions 4378 (N16W44, Cso/beta), 4381 (N08W11,
Eai/beta), and 4386 (N15W76, Cao/beta) exhibited slight development
while the remaining regions were either stable or in decay.

A CME associated with a filament eruption centered near S20E30 at around
06/0428 UTC is likely to arrive as a glancing blow on 10 Mar.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a slight chance for
M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares through 09 Mar.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on
07-09 Mar. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue
at background levels through 09 Mar.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind environment was consistent with a solar sector boundary
crossing followed by the onset of negative polarity CH HSS influences.
Total magnetic field strength reached 11 nT, and the Bz component varied
between +6 and -8 nT. Solar wind speeds ranged between 325-385 km/s
throughout the period. The phi angle transitioned from positive to
negative at around 06/0900 UTC.

.Forecast...
Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to persist through 09 Mar
due to negative polarity CH HSS influences.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to reached active levels on 07-09 Mar
due to negative polarity CH HSS influences.


27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2026 Mar 02     150          10          3
2026 Mar 03     150          12          4
2026 Mar 04     150           8          3
2026 Mar 05     155           5          2
2026 Mar 06     158           8          3
2026 Mar 07     156           5          2
2026 Mar 08     156           8          3
2026 Mar 09     150          10          3
2026 Mar 10     145          18          4
2026 Mar 11     140          10          3
2026 Mar 12     135          15          4
2026 Mar 13     128          10          3
2026 Mar 14     125          15          4
2026 Mar 15     120          15          4
2026 Mar 16     118          10          3
2026 Mar 17     115          10          3
2026 Mar 18     120          10          3
2026 Mar 19     120          12          3
2026 Mar 20     120          15          4
2026 Mar 21     122          35          6
2026 Mar 22     122          24          5
2026 Mar 23     125          15          4
2026 Mar 24     128          15          4
2026 Mar 25     128          18          4
2026 Mar 26     130          10          3
2026 Mar 27     135           8          3
2026 Mar 28     140           8          3


  • GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
    It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

  • DATA SOURCES: Learn more
    Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

  • 'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
    These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

    The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

    Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

  • Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
    The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

    Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

  • Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
    The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.
  • DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

    The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

    Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

  • ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

    ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
  • GOES Satalites: Learn more

    GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

  • Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
    Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
    These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
    There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.
  • User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
    If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
    Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

 

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.


v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
 
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
 
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
 
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
 
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)

  Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey