Aurora Forecast

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27 Day

Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: WATA20
Serial Number: 1112
Issue Time: 2026 May 16 2134 UTC

WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted
Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
May 17: G1 (Minor) May 18: G1 (Minor) May 19: None (Below G1)
THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT

Comment:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK05
Serial Number: 2022
Issue Time: 2026 May 16 1804 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2026 May 16 1759 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1500-1800
Active Warning: YES
Noaa Scale: G1 - Minor

Comment:
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 3686
Issue Time: 2026 May 16 1753 UTC

ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Threshold Reached: 2026 May 16 1740 UTC
Station: GOES-19

Comment:

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP4
Serial Number: 709
Issue Time: 2026 May 16 1658 UTC

ALERT: Type IV Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2026 May 16 1605 UTC

Comment:

Space Weather Message Code: SUM10R
Serial Number: 912
Issue Time: 2026 May 16 1637 UTC

SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2026 May 16 1606 UTC
Maximum Time: 2026 May 16 1609 UTC
End Time: 2026 May 16 1610 UTC
Peak Flux: 170 sfu
Duration: 4 minutes
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 101 sfu

Comment: COR for end date.
COR for end date.

Space Weather Message Code: SUM10R
Serial Number: 912
Issue Time: 2026 May 16 1631 UTC

SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2026 May 16 1606 UTC
Maximum Time: 2026 May 16 1609 UTC
End Time: 2026 May 17 1610 UTC
Peak Flux: 170 sfu
Duration: 4 minutes
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 101 sfu

Comment:

Solar-terrestrial indices for 16 May follow.
Solar flux 109 and estimated planetary A-index 34.
The estimated planetary K-index at 1200 UTC on 17 May was 2.33.

Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level occurred.
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level occurred.

Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be minor.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are likely.

Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 15 May 035
Estimated Ap 16 May 038
Predicted Ap 17 May-19 May 018-020-015

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 May-19 May
Active                20/20/35
Minor storm           40/40/25
Moderate storm        25/25/05
Strong-Extreme storm  10/10/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 17 May - 19 May
             May 17    May 18    May 19
00-03UT        4.00      3.67      4.33
03-06UT        4.67      3.33      3.67
06-09UT        3.33      3.00      3.00
09-12UT        2.33      2.67      2.00
12-15UT        2.00      2.67      1.67
15-18UT        2.33      5.00      2.00
18-21UT        3.00      3.33      3.00
21-00UT        3.67      3.33      3.33

Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 6 (NOAA Scale
G2).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 17-May 19 2026 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown May 17-May 19 2026

             May 17       May 18       May 19
00-03UT       3.33         3.67         4.33
03-06UT       4.00         3.33         3.67
06-09UT       4.67 (G1)    3.00         3.00
09-12UT       2.33         2.67         2.00
12-15UT       2.00         2.67         1.67
15-18UT       2.33         5.00 (G1)    2.00
18-21UT       3.00         3.33         3.00
21-00UT       3.67         3.33         3.33

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are expected on 17 May due to
the negative polarity CH HSS ongoing effects. G1 (Minor) storming levels
are likely on 18 May due to possible glancing blow of a CME from 16 May.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-19 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 17-May 19 2026

              May 17  May 18  May 19
S1 or greater    5%      5%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at May 16 2026 1742 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for May 17-May 19 2026

              May 17        May 18        May 19
R1-R2           40%           40%           40%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely through 19
May due to the flare potential and evolution of the active regions on
the visible disk.

Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels due to M-class flare activity
from Regions 4436 (N19W26, Hsx/alpha) and 4435 (N22, L=41). Regions 4439
(N06E68, Dao/beta), 4440 (N17E71, Cao/beta) and 4441 (N08E28, Dro/beta)
were all numbered this period, but remained relatively quiet. Regions
4436 and 4438 began exhibiting signs of decay.

Region 4436 produced an M1.9 flare at 16/1612 UTC which was followed by
an M1.3 flare at 16/1629. This event was associated with a Type IV radio
sweep that began at approximately 16/1605 UTC, a filament eruption that
was centered at approximately N21W07 and resulted in a complex CME
eruption. The first front of this event was first seen in LASCO C2
coronagraph imagery at 16/1636 UTC with the second becoming visible near
16/1700 UTC. Initial analysis and model output suggests a glancing blow
to Earth by mid UTC-day with a bulk of the material missing northward on
18 May.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to remain predominately at low levels, with a
chance for additional M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares through 19
May.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux increased to high levels with a
peak flux of 1,420 pfu observed at 16/1845 UTC in response to high speed
stream influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background
levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at moderate
to high levels through 19 May. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to stay at background levels through 18 May.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind parameters reflected a negative polarity CH HSS regime.
Total field decreased somewhat post CIR from 7-8 nT to 4-5 nT by the end
of the period. The Bz component underwent several southward deflections
reaching -5 to -8 nT, but ended the period closer to neutral. Solar wind
speeds primarily ranged from approximately 630 km/s to 725 km/s.

.Forecast...
A negative polarity CH HSS regime is expected to persist through 19 May.
Additional enhancements are possible on 18 and 19 May due to
aforementioned glancing CME influences.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field reached G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storm
levels during the CIR phase of high speed stream onset. Unsettled to G1
storm levels were observed after 16/0900 UTC.

.Forecast...
G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is expected during the early portions of
17 May due to continued CH HSS effects. G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming,
with a chance for G2 (Moderate) levels, are likely once again on 18 May
due to any glancing CME effects from the aforementioned event. A chance
for G1 (Minor) storming will extend into 19 May.

27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2026 May 11     128           8          3
2026 May 12     128           5          2
2026 May 13     122          10          3
2026 May 14     130           5          2
2026 May 15     125          25          5
2026 May 16     125          20          5
2026 May 17     120          18          5
2026 May 18     122          15          4
2026 May 19     130           5          2
2026 May 20     130           5          2
2026 May 21     130           8          3
2026 May 22     120          10          3
2026 May 23     125          12          4
2026 May 24     125           5          2
2026 May 25     125           5          2
2026 May 26     130           5          2
2026 May 27     135          12          4
2026 May 28     135          10          3
2026 May 29     130           8          3
2026 May 30     125           8          3
2026 May 31     122           8          3
2026 Jun 01     118           5          2
2026 Jun 02     115           5          2
2026 Jun 03     120           5          2
2026 Jun 04     120          12          4
2026 Jun 05     120           5          2
2026 Jun 06     120           5          2

Save as 'My Presets'

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.
From Date: (YYYY-MM-DD HH:MM). Leave empty for real-time.

Range: (in hours, WARNING 1 hour = ~10KB of data)
Local Time Zone:
Enable Forecast / Timeshift (Recommended) Enable Fixed Y Axis Values Combine Y Series (B*, Proton, Dyn Preasure & Kp). Show Axis Titles Show Graph Legend (Keys) Enable Auto Update (Range will be reduced to 2 hours) Enable Night Vision Red Theme

DATA SOURCES: Learn more
Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.
'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

AF Index (Experemental) AF Community Activity (Hits)
Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

SWPC Kp (Observation)
SWPC Kp (Prediction) GeoSpace Kp (Prediction) Wing Kp (Legacy : Date < 22/06/18)
Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.

Northern Hemisphere (Aurora Borealis) Southern Hemisphere (Aurora Australis)
DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

Mag Bt (Total Strength) Mag Bx (X Axis) Mag By (Y Axis) Mag Bz (Z Axis) Solar Wind Speed Proton Density Dynamic Pressure (Calculated)
ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
Show ACE (When enabled the forecasting / timeshift feature will be disabled)
GOES Satalites: Learn more

GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

Primary Secondary Variation (Pri - Sec)
Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.

Macquarie Island (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Mawson (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Canberra (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Ruru Obseratory (www.ruruobseratory.org.nz / NZ) Aurora Forecast #1 (Hobart) Aurora Forecast #2 (Hobart) Aurora Forecast #3 (Hobart)
User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.

v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)

v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.

v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).

v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.

> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)
Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

DATA SOURCES: Learn more Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

DATA SOURCES: Learn more
Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.