Presets:
close
Ovation: South
North
Weather: TAS
Presets: Presets

Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 1494
Issue Time: 2026 May 26 1422 UTC

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2026 May 26 1244 UTC
Estimate Velocity: 650 km/s

Comment: SVI; updated with correct start time
SVI; updated with correct start time

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 1494
Issue Time: 2026 May 26 1420 UTC

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2026 May 26 1420 UTC
Estimate Velocity: 650 km/s

Comment: SVI
SVI

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 1490
Issue Time: 2026 May 26 1419 UTC

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2026 May 26 1244 UTC
Estimate Velocity: 650 km/s

Comment: SVI
SVI

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 1490
Issue Time: 2026 May 26 1419 UTC

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2026 May 26 1244 UTC
Estimate Velocity: 650 km/s

Comment: SVI
SVI

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 1490
Issue Time: 2026 May 26 1419 UTC

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2026 May 26 1244 UTC
Estimate Velocity: 650 km/s

Comment: SVI
SVI

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 1490
Issue Time: 2026 May 26 1419 UTC

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2026 May 26 1244 UTC
Estimate Velocity: 650 km/s

Comment: SVI
SVI

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 1490
Issue Time: 2026 May 26 1419 UTC

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2026 May 26 1244 UTC
Estimate Velocity: 650 km/s

Comment: SVI
SVI

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 1491
Issue Time: 2026 May 26 1419 UTC

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2026 May 26 1244 UTC
Estimate Velocity: 650 km/s

Comment: SVI
SVI

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 1492
Issue Time: 2026 May 26 1419 UTC

CANCELLED ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Cancel Serial Number: 1491
Original Issued Time: 2026-05-26T14:19:00
Cancelled 2026-05-26 14:19 by Forecaster User Duplicate.
Cancelled 2026-05-26 14:19 by Forecaster User Duplicate.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 1493
Issue Time: 2026 May 26 1419 UTC

CANCELLED ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Cancel Serial Number: 1490
Original Issued Time: 2026-05-26T14:19:00
Cancelled 2026-05-26 14:19 by Forecaster User Duplicate.
Cancelled 2026-05-26 14:19 by Forecaster User Duplicate.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 1490
Issue Time: 2026 May 26 1418 UTC

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2026 May 26 1244 UTC
Estimate Velocity: 650 km/s

Comment: SVI
SVI

Space Weather Message Code: ALTPX1
Serial Number: 365
Issue Time: 2026 May 26 0035 UTC

ALERT: Proton Event 10meV Integral Flux exceeded 10pfu
Begin Time: 2026 May 26 0010 UTC
Noaa Scale: S1 - Minor

Comment:
NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor

Space Weather Message Code: WARPX1
Serial Number: 625
Issue Time: 2026 May 26 0016 UTC

WARNING: Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Valid From: 2026 May 26 0015 UTC
Valid To: 2026 May 26 2359 UTC
Warning Conditions: Onset
Noaa Scale: S1 - Minor

Comment:
NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor


Solar-terrestrial indices for 25 May follow.
Solar flux 139 and estimated planetary A-index 8.
The estimated planetary K-index at 1500 UTC on 26 May was 1.00.

Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor.
Solar radiation storms reaching the S1 level occurred.

Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be minor.
Solar radiation storms reaching the S1 level are likely.


Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 24 May 006
Estimated Ap 25 May 006
Predicted Ap 26 May-28 May 006-012-012

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 May-28 May
Active                15/35/35
Minor storm           05/10/10
Moderate storm        01/05/05
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 26 May - 28 May
             May 26    May 27    May 28
00-03UT        1.67      2.67      3.00
03-06UT        1.67      3.67      3.67
06-09UT        2.00      3.00      3.00
09-12UT        1.67      2.67      2.67
12-15UT        1.67      2.33      2.00
15-18UT        1.67      2.00      1.67
18-21UT        2.00      2.33      2.67
21-00UT        2.00      2.67      1.67


Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 26-May 28 2026 is 3.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown May 26-May 28 2026

             May 26       May 27       May 28
00-03UT       2.33         2.67         3.00
03-06UT       1.33         3.67         3.67
06-09UT       1.67         3.00         3.00
09-12UT       2.00         2.67         2.67
12-15UT       2.00         2.33         2.00
15-18UT       1.67         2.00         1.67
18-21UT       1.67         2.33         2.67
21-00UT       1.67         2.67         1.67

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-19 over the past 24 hours, was
above S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 26-May 28 2026

              May 26  May 27  May 28
S1 or greater   50%      5%      5%

Rationale: A return to S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm levels is
possible on 26 May due to the flaring potential of the visible disk, the
activity level of old Region 4436 beyond the western limb, and the
current elevated greater than 10 MeV proton flux.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for May 26-May 28 2026

              May 26        May 27        May 28
R1-R2           35%           35%           35%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
through 28 May due to the flaring potential on the visible disk.


Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at low levels, with the largest event of the
reporting period being a C2.4/sf at 26/0717 UTC from Region 4448
(S08E42, Cao/beta).

As the sunspot complex in the southeast rotated further onto the visible
disk and away from the limb foreshortening affects, it was determined
that old Regions 4451 and 4446 were the same sunspot group and have been
grouped under Region 4446 (S16E43, Cko/beta-gamma), to make a total of
eight numbered regions on the visible disk. The only region to show
appreciable flux emergence and magnetic shearing was Region 4447
(S16W02, Dai/beta). All other regions were either largely stable or in
very gradual decay.

Additional activity included a partial halo CME from beyond the
Northwest limb that was observed in LASCO C2 beginning at 25/2212 UTC.
Due to the location of origin (suspected activity from old Region 4436,
L=330), no geoeffective impact is anticipated.

No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels through 28
May, with a chance for isolated M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate)
due to the flare potential of the visible disk.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at low
to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux and the 100 MeV
flux became elevated late on 25 May, with the 10 MeV flux crossing the
S1 (Minor) threshold at 26/0010 UTC and reaching a peak flux of 2,380
pfu at 26/0110 UTC. The 100 MeV flux did not cross the alert threshold
of 1 pfu and had returned to near background levels by the end of the
reporting period.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at low to
moderate levels through 28 May. There is a chance (50%) for the greater
than 10 MeV proton flux to return to S1 levels, and a slight chance
(20%) for the 100 MeV flux to reach 1 pfu, on 26 May. A return to
background values is expected for 27-28 May.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected near-background conditions. The phi
angle had a distinct solar sector boundary crossing to the negative
(towards the Sun) sector at approximately 25/1400 UTC. This boundary
transition lead to a drop in density and changes in the components of
the interplanetary magnetic field. Total magnetic field (Bt) was
variable across the period, ranging from a peak of 9.5 nT down to 2 nT.
The north-south (Bz) component reached a maximum southward deflection of
-7 nT at approximately 25/1610 UTC and spent the remainder of the
reporting period gradually increasing to a maximum of 6 nT at ~26/1110
UTC. Solar wind speeds started the period around 350 km/s before rising
slightly following the SSBC to finish the period near 400 km/s.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are anticipated to be at or around ambient levels
through 26 May. Enhancements are anticipated on 27 May ahead of the
arrival of a relatively weak negative polarity coronal hole high-speed
stream (-CH HSS), likely persisting through 28 May.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the
reporting period.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is anticipated to be at mostly quiet levels on 26
May as near-background solar wind conditions persist. An increase to
unsettled to active levels is likely on 27-28 May due to the anticipated
onset and influence of a -CH HSS.


27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2026 May 25     140           5          2
2026 May 26     145           8          3
2026 May 27     150          12          4
2026 May 28     140          12          4
2026 May 29     140           8          3
2026 May 30     145           5          2
2026 May 31     145           5          2
2026 Jun 01     145           5          2
2026 Jun 02     145           5          2
2026 Jun 03     150           5          2
2026 Jun 04     145          15          4
2026 Jun 05     140           5          2
2026 Jun 06     135           5          2
2026 Jun 07     135           5          2
2026 Jun 08     130           5          2
2026 Jun 09     125          12          4
2026 Jun 10     130           5          2
2026 Jun 11     130          30          6
2026 Jun 12     125          25          5
2026 Jun 13     120          12          4
2026 Jun 14     115          10          3
2026 Jun 15     115           8          3
2026 Jun 16     110           5          2
2026 Jun 17     110           5          2
2026 Jun 18     110           5          2
2026 Jun 19     115           5          2
2026 Jun 20     120           5          2


  • GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
    It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

  • DATA SOURCES: Learn more
    Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

  • 'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
    These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

    The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

    Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

  • Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
    The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

    Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

  • Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
    The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.
  • DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

    The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

    Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

  • ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

    ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
  • GOES Satalites: Learn more

    GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

  • Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
    Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
    These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
    There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.
  • User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
    If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
    Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

 

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.


v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
 
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
 
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
 
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
 
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)

  Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey