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Weather: TAS
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Alerts:
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Solar-terrestrial indices for 31 May follow.
Solar flux 136 and estimated planetary A-index 10.
The estimated planetary K-index at 1200 UTC on 01 June was 1.67.

No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.


Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 30 May 015
Estimated Ap 31 May 012
Predicted Ap 01 Jun-03 Jun 010-008-014

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jun-03 Jun
Active                35/25/40
Minor storm           15/05/25
Moderate storm        01/01/05
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 01 Jun - 03 Jun
             Jun 01    Jun 02    Jun 03
00-03UT        3.67      2.67      2.00
03-06UT        3.00      2.33      3.33
06-09UT        2.33      2.00      4.00
09-12UT        2.00      1.33      3.00
12-15UT        1.67      1.33      2.67
15-18UT        2.00      2.00      2.33
18-21UT        2.00      2.00      2.33
21-00UT        2.33      2.33      2.67


Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 01-Jun 03 2026 is 4.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 01-Jun 03 2026

             Jun 01       Jun 02       Jun 03
00-03UT       2.00         2.67         2.00
03-06UT       1.00         2.33         3.33
06-09UT       1.67         2.00         4.00
09-12UT       1.67         1.33         3.00
12-15UT       2.33         1.33         2.67
15-18UT       2.00         2.00         2.33
18-21UT       2.00         2.00         2.33
21-00UT       2.33         2.33         2.67

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 01-Jun 03 2026

              Jun 01  Jun 02  Jun 03
S1 or greater    5%      5%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 01-Jun 03 2026

              Jun 01        Jun 02        Jun 03
R1-R2           25%           25%           20%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            1%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
on 01-02 Jun, with a slight chance for R1-R2 events on 03 Jun.


Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at low levels with weak C-class flare activity.
Region 4446 (S14W43, Cso/beta) continued to undergo decay while
producing low level C-class flare activity. Region 4455 (N15E17,
Cko/beta) exhibited decay while its large leading penumbra began to take
on an asymmetric shape. Region 4456 (N14, L=66) decayed to plage.

Two CMEs of note were observed during the period. The first was seen
emerging from the southwest in GOES CCOR-1 imagery at approximately
31/1330 UTC. Analysis of GOES SUVI imagery determined the bulk of the
material associated with this event to have originated from beyond the
western limb and thus is not Earth-directed. However, it should be noted
that relatively narrow, jet-like ejecta from the vicinity of AR 4446 and
AR 4449 (S08W38, Hsx/alpha) was observed in GOES SUVI 304 imagery as
well just before the larger far side eruption and could have been faint
enough to have been masked. The second CME of note was observed emerging
from the southwest as well in GOES CCOR-1 imagery near 31/1715 UTC. SUVI
304 angstroms indicated a likely source location of AR 4447. There is
currently a gap in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery that would be needed to
perform modeling of this event as of the time of this writing, but an
Earth-directed component can reasonably be ruled out based upon source
location alone.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels through 02
Jun with a chance for isolated M-class flare activity. M-class flare
probabilities decrease to a slight chance (20%) on 03 Jun as multiple
regions exit the western limb.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at low
to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at
geosynchronous orbit remained at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue to reach
moderate levels through 03 Jun with a chance for high levels. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background
levels through 02 Jun.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected negative polarity CH HSS influences.
Total field primarily ranged 3-7 nT. The Bz component of the IMF began
the period with brief deflections reaching -3 nT, and remained weakly
southward. Solar wind speeds began the period near 550 km/s, but slowly
decayed to near 425 km/s by periods end.

.Forecast...
Negative polarity CH HSS influences are expected to continue through 01
Jun with possible glancing influences from the slow eruptions that
departed the Sun on 27 and 28 May. Ambient-like conditions are expected
to return by the close of 02 Jun. Enhanced conditions are anticipated to
return on 03 Jun first due to a solar sector boundary crossing followed
by weak and likely glancing CME influences from an eruption that left
the Sun on 30 May.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field oscillated between quiet to isolated unsettled
levels.

.Forecast...
Unsettled to isolated active conditions are expected for the remainder
of 01 Jun under continued negative polarity CH HSS effects and any
glancing influences from the 27 and 28 May CMEs. Mostly quiet
conditions, with isolated unsettled periods, are expected to prevail on
02 Jun as CH HSS effects wane. Unsettled to active levels, with a chance
for G1 (Minor) storming periods, are expected to return on 03 Jun due to
combined solar sector boundary crossing and relatively weak, glancing
CME effects from the aforementioned 30 May event.


27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2026 Jun 01     135          10          4
2026 Jun 02     135           8          3
2026 Jun 03     130          14          4
2026 Jun 04     130          12          4
2026 Jun 05     125          10          4
2026 Jun 06     125           8          3
2026 Jun 07     125           5          2
2026 Jun 08     120           5          2
2026 Jun 09     120           5          2
2026 Jun 10     130           5          2
2026 Jun 11     135          30          6
2026 Jun 12     135          25          5
2026 Jun 13     130          12          4
2026 Jun 14     130          10          4
2026 Jun 15     140           8          3
2026 Jun 16     140           5          2
2026 Jun 17     150           5          2
2026 Jun 18     155           5          2
2026 Jun 19     160           5          2
2026 Jun 20     160           5          2
2026 Jun 21     165           8          3
2026 Jun 22     160           8          3
2026 Jun 23     155          10          4
2026 Jun 24     145          15          4
2026 Jun 25     145          15          4
2026 Jun 26     150          15          4
2026 Jun 27     150          15          4


  • GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
    It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

  • DATA SOURCES: Learn more
    Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

  • 'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
    These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

    The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

    Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

  • Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
    The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

    Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

  • Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
    The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.
  • DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

    The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

    Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

  • ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

    ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
  • GOES Satalites: Learn more

    GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

  • Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
    Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
    These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
    There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.
  • User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
    If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
    Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

 

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.


v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
 
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
 
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
 
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
 
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)

  Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast


Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey