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Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5177
Issue Time: 2025 Dec 10 0708 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2025 Dec 10 0707 UTC
Valid To: 2025 Dec 10 1500 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: WATA50
Serial Number: 95
Issue Time: 2025 Dec 09 2103 UTC

CANCEL WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G3 Predicted
Cancel Serial Number: 94
Original Issue Time: 2025 Dec 07 0443 UTC

Comment: Enhancement from anticipated CME did not occur
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices.
Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation - Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.


Solar-terrestrial indices for 09 December follow.
Solar flux 183 and estimated planetary A-index 5.
The estimated planetary K-index at 1800 UTC on 10 December was 2.00.

Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor.
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level occurred.

Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be minor.
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected.


Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 08 Dec 002
Estimated Ap 09 Dec 055
Predicted Ap 10 Dec-12 Dec 009-009-014

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Dec-12 Dec
Active                25/25/40
Minor storm           30/05/20
Moderate storm        30/01/01
Strong-Extreme storm  10/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 10 Dec - 12 Dec
             Dec 10    Dec 11    Dec 12
00-03UT        2.00      1.00      3.33
03-06UT        2.00      2.00      2.00
06-09UT        3.00      2.33      2.00
09-12UT        2.00      2.33      3.00
12-15UT        2.00      2.33      2.67
15-18UT        2.00      2.33      3.00
18-21UT        3.00      2.33      3.33
21-00UT        1.33      2.67      3.33


Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 10-Dec 12 2025 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 10-Dec 12 2025

             Dec 10       Dec 11       Dec 12
00-03UT       2.67         1.00         3.33
03-06UT       2.00         2.00         2.00
06-09UT       3.33         2.33         2.00
09-12UT       2.00         2.33         3.00
12-15UT       2.00         2.33         2.67
15-18UT       2.00         2.33         3.00
18-21UT       3.00         2.33         3.33
21-00UT       4.67 (G1)    2.67         3.33

Rationale: Isolated G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are likely
on 10 Dec, due to passage of a magnetic transient.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Dec 10-Dec 12 2025

              Dec 10  Dec 11  Dec 12
S1 or greater   15%     15%      15%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar
radiation storms on 10-12 Dec.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Dec 10 2025 0737 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Dec 10-Dec 12 2025

              Dec 10        Dec 11        Dec 12
R1-R2           75%           75%           65%
R3 or greater   15%           15%           15%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected on 10-11
Dec and likely on 12 Dec. There is a slight chance of R3 (Strong) or
greater events on 10-12 Dec.


Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at moderate levels due to multiple low level M-class
flares (R1-Minor), mostly from Region 4294 (S15W69,
Ekc/beta-gamma-delta). The Region 4294 continues to show flux emergence
in its leading spots creating  instability and its activity. Region 4304
(N26W36, Cai/beta-gamma) experienced rapid growth and flux emergence,
with the potential to develop a delta spot over the next few days. Newly
numbered Region 4305 (S25E20, Cai/beta-gamma) also continued to grow
rapidly. All other regions were stable or in decay.

There were no Earth-directed CMEs in coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) flare activity is expected (75%
chance), with a slight chance (15%) for R3 (Strong) activity.
Probabilities remain elevated due to the large complex of the three
regions in the southwest part of the disk.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit were at
high levels, with a maximum of 1572 pfu at 09/1615 UTC. The greater than
10 MeV proton flux remained at background.

.Forecast...
Without the geoeffective positioning of any coronal hole high speed
stream until 13 Dec, electrons will continue to trend towards moderate
levels through 12 Dec.

Due the growth of Region 4294 and its favorable positioning in the west,
there remains a slight chance (15%) for an S1 (Minor) radiation storming
event.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected a disturbed near-Earth environment
throughout the reporting period. The total interplanetary magnetic field
(Bt) averaged 7 nT until 10/0328 UTC, when a magnetic transient arrived
and pushed it to 13 nT. The north-south (Bz) component was largely south
(negative) for the reporting period, reaching a maximum of -7 nT at
10/0434 UTC. Solar wind speeds showed little reaction to the magnetic
transient, averaging 375 km/s throughout the reporting period. The phi
angle was oriented towards-the-Sun (negative) for the majority of the
reporting period, then slowly rotated around to away-from-the-Sun
(positive) 1.5 hours after the arrival of the transient.

.Forecast...
Solar wind environment is likely to slowly return to nominal levels by
the end of 10 Dec as the transient moves through, with 11 Dec remaining
quiet. Conditions may become elevated on 12 Dec due to a potential weak
impact from a CME that left the Sun on 08 Dec.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels for the first half of the
reporting period, and then was largely unsettled after the arrival of
the transient.

.Forecast...
Isolated periods of G1 (Minor Storming) levels are possible on the later
half of 10 Dec, due to the continued passage of the transient and a weak
but favorable connection with Bz. 11-12 Dec are likely to return to
largely unsettled levels.


27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2025 Dec 08     190          18          5
2025 Dec 09     190          70          7
2025 Dec 10     185          33          5
2025 Dec 11     175          10          3
2025 Dec 12     155           5          2
2025 Dec 13     140          12          4
2025 Dec 14     130          12          4
2025 Dec 15     130           8          3
2025 Dec 16     135           5          2
2025 Dec 17     135           8          3
2025 Dec 18     140          10          3
2025 Dec 19     140           8          3
2025 Dec 20     140           8          3
2025 Dec 21     140          15          5
2025 Dec 22     140          20          5
2025 Dec 23     145          20          5
2025 Dec 24     160          25          5
2025 Dec 25     170          20          5
2025 Dec 26     180          20          5
2025 Dec 27     180          15          4
2025 Dec 28     180          10          3
2025 Dec 29     175           8          3
2025 Dec 30     180          30          6
2025 Dec 31     180          25          5
2026 Jan 01     175          10          3
2026 Jan 02     170          10          3
2026 Jan 03     170           8          3


  • GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
    It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

  • DATA SOURCES: Learn more
    Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

  • 'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
    These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

    The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

    Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

  • Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
    The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

    Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

  • Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
    The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.
  • DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

    The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

    Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

  • ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

    ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
  • GOES Satalites: Learn more

    GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

  • Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
    Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
    These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
    There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.
  • User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
    If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
    Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

 

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.


v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
 
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
 
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
 
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
 
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)

  Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey