Aurora Forecast

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27 Day

Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5236
Issue Time: 2026 Jan 24 1752 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 5235
Valid From: 2026 Jan 22 2224 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2026 Jan 24 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 3609
Issue Time: 2026 Jan 24 0500 UTC

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 3608
Begin Time: 2026 Jan 21 0950 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 3392 pfu
Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK05
Serial Number: 2183
Issue Time: 2026 Jan 24 0257 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 2182
Valid From: 2026 Jan 22 2325 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2026 Jan 24 1500 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5235
Issue Time: 2026 Jan 24 0256 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 5234
Valid From: 2026 Jan 22 2224 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2026 Jan 24 1800 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Solar-terrestrial indices for 24 January follow.
Solar flux 174 and estimated planetary A-index 16.
The estimated planetary K-index at 0000 UTC on 25 January was 3.33.

No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be minor.
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level are likely.

Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 23 Jan 028
Estimated Ap 24 Jan 017
Predicted Ap 25 Jan-27 Jan 008-005-008

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jan-27 Jan
Active                20/10/25
Minor storm           10/01/10
Moderate storm        01/01/01
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 25 Jan - 27 Jan
             Jan 25    Jan 26    Jan 27
00-03UT        2.33      1.67      2.33
03-06UT        2.67      1.33      1.67
06-09UT        2.33      1.33      2.00
09-12UT        1.67      1.33      1.67
12-15UT        1.33      1.67      1.67
15-18UT        1.33      1.33      2.00
18-21UT        2.00      1.67      2.00
21-00UT        2.33      1.33      3.33

Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 25-Jan 27 2026 is 3.33 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 25-Jan 27 2026

             Jan 25       Jan 26       Jan 27
00-03UT       2.33         1.67         2.33
03-06UT       2.67         1.33         1.67
06-09UT       2.33         1.33         2.00
09-12UT       1.67         1.33         1.67
12-15UT       1.33         1.67         1.67
15-18UT       1.33         1.33         2.00
18-21UT       2.00         1.67         2.00
21-00UT       2.33         1.33         3.33

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 25-Jan 27 2026

              Jan 25  Jan 26  Jan 27
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 25-Jan 27 2026

              Jan 25        Jan 26        Jan 27
R1-R2           55%           55%           55%
R3 or greater   10%           10%           10%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a
slight chance for an R3 (Strong) or greater event, over 25-27 Jan.

Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. Region 4351 (S04W21, Dai/beta-delta)
re-developed a weak delta configuration its intermediate spots early in
the period before weakening again, losing many of its trailing spots.
This region did produce a C4.1 flare at 24/0831 UTC, the largest flare
of the period. Regions 4349 (S14E08, Dso/beta), 4353 (N18W16,
Dai/beta-delta), and 4355 (S14E44, Cao/beta) all exhibited growth, with
Region 4353 re-developing its delta configuration as well. The remaining
regions were unchanged or underwent slight decay.

A few additional CMEs were observed in LASCO imagery during the period.
Analysis and modeling concluded that these events were also either on
the far side of the solar disk, or on (or just beyond) the southeastern
limb, thus not Earth-directed.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to remain at low levels, with moderate
(R1/R2, Minor/Moderate) levels likely and a slight chance for X-class
flares (R3-Strong) on 25-27 Jan.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak
flux of 5,171 pfu observed at 24/1805 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux was below the S1 (Minor) threshold.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on
25-27 Jan. The greater than 10 MeV proton enhancement is expected to
continue to decline towards background levels over 25-27 Jan.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters continued to reflect a positive polarity CH HSS
regime. Total field averaged near 6-7 nT, while the Bz component ranged
between +/- 6 nT. Solar wind speeds slowly decreased from speeds around
550 km/s to end the period at or just below 500 km/s. Phi was
predominantly in the positive solar sector.

.Forecast...
Positive polarity CH HSS effects are expected to gradually diminish over
25-26 Jan. A near ambient-like regime is expected to return for 26 Jan
thru the majority of 27 Jan. The latter half of 27 Jan should see a
negative polarity CH HSS move into a geoeffective position, bringing
additional enhancements to the solar wind environment.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels,
with active periods possible early on 25 Jan. Decreasing positive
polarity CH HSS influence on 26-27 Jan should bring geomagnetic activity
back to quiet to unsettled levels. By the end of the day on 27 Jan,
conditions are anticipated to increase to mostly unsettled levels, with
active periods likely, as a negative polarity CH HSS moves into a
geoeffective position.

27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2026 Jan 19     160          20          4
2026 Jan 20     165          16          4
2026 Jan 21     170          10          3
2026 Jan 22     175           8          3
2026 Jan 23     180           8          3
2026 Jan 24     180           5          2
2026 Jan 25     175           5          2
2026 Jan 26     170           5          2
2026 Jan 27     165          10          3
2026 Jan 28     160          15          4
2026 Jan 29     165          25          5
2026 Jan 30     165          12          4
2026 Jan 31     160          10          3
2026 Feb 01     155           5          2
2026 Feb 02     150           5          2
2026 Feb 03     145           5          2
2026 Feb 04     140          15          4
2026 Feb 05     130          12          4
2026 Feb 06     120          10          3
2026 Feb 07     125           8          3
2026 Feb 08     130           8          3
2026 Feb 09     135          10          3
2026 Feb 10     140           8          3
2026 Feb 11     135           8          3
2026 Feb 12     135           5          2
2026 Feb 13     135          20          4
2026 Feb 14     140          15          4

Save as 'My Presets'

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.
From Date: (YYYY-MM-DD HH:MM). Leave empty for real-time.

Range: (in hours, WARNING 1 hour = ~10KB of data)
Local Time Zone:
Enable Forecast / Timeshift (Recommended) Enable Fixed Y Axis Values Combine Y Series (B*, Proton, Dyn Preasure & Kp). Show Axis Titles Show Graph Legend (Keys) Enable Auto Update (Range will be reduced to 2 hours) Enable Night Vision Red Theme

DATA SOURCES: Learn more
Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.
'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

AF Index (Experemental) AF Community Activity (Hits)
Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

SWPC Kp (Observation)
SWPC Kp (Prediction) GeoSpace Kp (Prediction) Wing Kp (Legacy : Date < 22/06/18)
Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.

Northern Hemisphere (Aurora Borealis) Southern Hemisphere (Aurora Australis)
DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

Mag Bt (Total Strength) Mag Bx (X Axis) Mag By (Y Axis) Mag Bz (Z Axis) Solar Wind Speed Proton Density Dynamic Pressure (Calculated)
ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
Show ACE (When enabled the forecasting / timeshift feature will be disabled)
GOES Satalites: Learn more

GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

Primary Secondary Variation (Pri - Sec)
Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.

Macquarie Island (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Mawson (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Canberra (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Ruru Obseratory (www.ruruobseratory.org.nz / NZ) Aurora Forecast #1 (Hobart) Aurora Forecast #2 (Hobart) Aurora Forecast #3 (Hobart)
User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.

v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)

v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.

v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).

v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.

> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)
Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

DATA SOURCES: Learn more Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

DATA SOURCES: Learn more
Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.