Aurora Forecast

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27 Day

Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 3600
Issue Time: 2026 Jan 14 0459 UTC

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 3599
Begin Time: 2026 Jan 12 1040 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 3575 pfu
Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

Solar-terrestrial indices for 13 January follow.
Solar flux 117 and estimated planetary A-index 10.
The estimated planetary K-index at 0600 UTC on 14 January was 2.00.

No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.

Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 12 Jan 018
Estimated Ap 13 Jan 011
Predicted Ap 14 Jan-16 Jan 012-008-005

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jan-16 Jan
Active                35/25/15
Minor storm           25/05/01
Moderate storm        05/01/01
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 14 Jan - 16 Jan
             Jan 14    Jan 15    Jan 16
00-03UT        3.67      2.33      1.67
03-06UT        3.00      3.00      1.33
06-09UT        3.00      2.00      1.33
09-12UT        2.67      2.00      1.33
12-15UT        2.00      1.67      1.33
15-18UT        2.33      2.00      1.33
18-21UT        2.00      2.00      1.67
21-00UT        2.00      2.33      1.67

Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 14-Jan 16 2026 is 3.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 14-Jan 16 2026

             Jan 14       Jan 15       Jan 16
00-03UT       3.67         2.33         1.67
03-06UT       3.00         3.00         1.33
06-09UT       3.00         2.00         1.33
09-12UT       2.67         2.00         1.33
12-15UT       2.00         1.67         1.33
15-18UT       2.33         2.00         1.33
18-21UT       2.00         2.00         1.67
21-00UT       2.00         2.33         1.67

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 14-Jan 16 2026

              Jan 14  Jan 15  Jan 16
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 14-Jan 16 2026

              Jan 14        Jan 15        Jan 16
R1-R2           25%           25%           25%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: There is a chance (25%) R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts on 14-16 Jan.

Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was low. The largest flare was a C2.4 at 13/1648 UTC from
a region just beyond the SE limb near S10. Slight decay was observed in
Regions 4334 (S16W70, Axx/alpha), 4336 (S09W39, Eho/beta), and 4340
(N14E17, Cso/beta). Other activity included an approximate 10 degree
filament eruption, centered near S38W25, at 13/1150 UTC. Most of the
material appeared reabsorbed in NSO/GONG H-alpha imagery. Further
analysis will be conducted as coronagraph imagery becomes available.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance (25%) for M-class
flares (R1/R2, Minor/Moderate) over 14-16 Jan.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak
flux of 3,574 pfu at 13/1600 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
remained at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue to reach
high levels on 14-16 Jan. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters continued under negative polarity CH HSS
influences. Total magnetic field (Bt) ranged from 1-8 nT while the Bz
(north-south) component was between +6/-7 nT. Solar wind speed was
mostly between 500-600 km/s. Phi angle was negative (towards the Sun).

.Forecast...
Elevated solar wind parameters are expected to continue through 14 Jan
as negative polarity CH HSS influence persists. Solar wind parameters
are expected to gradually diminish to nominal levels on 15-16 Jan.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels under CH HSS
influences.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on
14 Jan as HSS conditions persist. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected
on 15 Jan followed by mostly quiet conditions on 16 Jan.

27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2026 Jan 12     110          28          6
2026 Jan 13     110          18          4
2026 Jan 14     112          12          4
2026 Jan 15     110           8          3
2026 Jan 16     108           8          3
2026 Jan 17     106           5          2
2026 Jan 18     106           5          2
2026 Jan 19     110          18          4
2026 Jan 20     115          15          4
2026 Jan 21     125          12          4
2026 Jan 22     135           8          3
2026 Jan 23     140           6          2
2026 Jan 24     135           6          2
2026 Jan 25     135           6          2
2026 Jan 26     135           6          2
2026 Jan 27     130          10          3
2026 Jan 28     125          15          4
2026 Jan 29     125          25          5
2026 Jan 30     130          12          4
2026 Jan 31     130          10          3
2026 Feb 01     125           5          2
2026 Feb 02     120           5          2
2026 Feb 03     115           5          2
2026 Feb 04     110          15          4
2026 Feb 05     105          12          4
2026 Feb 06     105          10          3
2026 Feb 07     110           8          3

Save as 'My Presets'

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.
From Date: (YYYY-MM-DD HH:MM). Leave empty for real-time.

Range: (in hours, WARNING 1 hour = ~10KB of data)
Local Time Zone:
Enable Forecast / Timeshift (Recommended) Enable Fixed Y Axis Values Combine Y Series (B*, Proton, Dyn Preasure & Kp). Show Axis Titles Show Graph Legend (Keys) Enable Auto Update (Range will be reduced to 2 hours) Enable Night Vision Red Theme

DATA SOURCES: Learn more
Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.
'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

AF Index (Experemental) AF Community Activity (Hits)
Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

SWPC Kp (Observation)
SWPC Kp (Prediction) GeoSpace Kp (Prediction) Wing Kp (Legacy : Date < 22/06/18)
Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.

Northern Hemisphere (Aurora Borealis) Southern Hemisphere (Aurora Australis)
DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

Mag Bt (Total Strength) Mag Bx (X Axis) Mag By (Y Axis) Mag Bz (Z Axis) Solar Wind Speed Proton Density Dynamic Pressure (Calculated)
ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
Show ACE (When enabled the forecasting / timeshift feature will be disabled)
GOES Satalites: Learn more

GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

Primary Secondary Variation (Pri - Sec)
Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.

Macquarie Island (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Mawson (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Canberra (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Ruru Obseratory (www.ruruobseratory.org.nz / NZ) Aurora Forecast #1 (Hobart) Aurora Forecast #2 (Hobart) Aurora Forecast #3 (Hobart)
User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.

v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)

v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.

v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).

v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.

> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)
Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

DATA SOURCES: Learn more Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

DATA SOURCES: Learn more
Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.