Aurora Forecast

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27 Day

Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5362
Issue Time: 2026 Jun 09 2022 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2026 Jun 09 2020 UTC
Valid To: 2026 Jun 09 2359 UTC
Warning Conditions: Onset

Comment:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 1501
Issue Time: 2026 Jun 09 1629 UTC

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2026 Jun 09 1557 UTC
Estimate Velocity: 917 km/s

Comment: SVI: 482 km/s; SAG: 917 km/s (closer station to the subsolar point. Report came later)
SVI: 482 km/s; SAG: 917 km/s (closer station to the subsolar point. Report came later)

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 1501
Issue Time: 2026 Jun 09 1625 UTC

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2026 Jun 09 1557 UTC
Estimate Velocity: 482 km/s

Comment:

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 1499
Issue Time: 2026 Jun 09 1624 UTC

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2026 Jun 09 1557 UTC
Estimate Velocity: 482 km/s

Comment:

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 1499
Issue Time: 2026 Jun 09 1624 UTC

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2026 Jun 09 1557 UTC
Estimate Velocity: 482 km/s

Comment:

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 1500
Issue Time: 2026 Jun 09 1624 UTC

CANCELLED ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Cancel Serial Number: 1499
Original Issued Time: 2026 Jun 09 1624 UTC
duplicated
duplicated

Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 3698
Issue Time: 2026 Jun 09 1141 UTC

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 3697
Begin Time: 2026 Jun 07 1143 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 1315 pfu

Solar-terrestrial indices for 09 June follow.
Solar flux 130 and estimated planetary A-index 11.
The estimated planetary K-index at 0900 UTC on 10 June was 1.33.

No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be moderate.
Radio blackouts reaching the R2 level are likely.

Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 08 Jun 008
Estimated Ap 09 Jun 012
Predicted Ap 10 Jun-12 Jun 012-012-015

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jun-12 Jun
Active                45/35/45
Minor storm           15/10/15
Moderate storm        01/01/01
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 10 Jun - 12 Jun
             Jun 10    Jun 11    Jun 12
00-03UT        3.67      2.00      3.67
03-06UT        2.67      2.00      4.00
06-09UT        2.67      3.00      4.00
09-12UT        2.00      2.67      2.33
12-15UT        2.67      3.00      2.00
15-18UT        2.00      3.00      2.67
18-21UT        2.67      3.00      2.00
21-00UT        3.00      2.67      2.33

Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 10-Jun 12 2026 is 4.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 10-Jun 12 2026

             Jun 10       Jun 11       Jun 12
00-03UT       3.67         2.00         3.67
03-06UT       2.67         2.00         4.00
06-09UT       2.67         3.00         4.00
09-12UT       2.00         2.67         2.33
12-15UT       2.67         3.00         2.00
15-18UT       2.00         3.00         2.67
18-21UT       2.67         3.00         2.00
21-00UT       3.00         2.67         2.33

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 10-Jun 12 2026

              Jun 10  Jun 11  Jun 12
S1 or greater   10%     10%     10%

Rationale: A slight chance of solar radiation storms are expected
through 12 Jun.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 10-Jun 12 2026

              Jun 10        Jun 11        Jun 12
R1-R2           55%           55%           55%
R3 or greater   15%           15%           15%

Rationale: Solar activity is likely to be moderate (R1-R2,
Minor-Moderate) with a slight chance for an X-class flares (R3-Strong)
through 12 Jun, mainly due to the flare potential of Regions 4464
(S12E11, Ehi/beta) and 4465.

Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at low levels with most of the C-level activity
originated from Region 4465 (N09E54, Dsi/beta-gamma), including the
largest flare of the day; a C4.5/Sf observed at 09/0423 UTC. There are
currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk, with the inclusion of
newly numbered Region 4466 (N06W16, Bxo/beta). Departed Region 4455
(N15, L=092) continued to produced some weak C-class flares, including a
C3.2 at 09/0700 UTC. A Type-II radio sweep was observed by two RSTN
stations at 09/1557 UTC, with estimated velocity of 917 km/s, likely
associated with C-class flaring from Region 4463. The plage Region 4461
(S21W23, L=11) also produced some of the C-flares of the period,
including a C2.3/1F (113 mil) at 09/1918 UTC.

Some CME activity was observed in the coronagraph imagery during the
period. One CME first observed at the NE quadrant of LASCO/C2 around
09/1630 UTC which was associated with an eruption near (and south of)
Region 4463 (N16E10, Hsx/alpha). Preliminary analysis suggest glancing
effects near-Earth on 14 June.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an
X-class flares through 12 Jun, mainly due to the flare potential of
Regions 4464 (S12E11, Ehi/beta) and 4465.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels with a peak flux of 4,259 pfu at 09/1525 UTC. The greater
than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels during the period.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux levels at geosynchronous orbit are
likely to continue reaching high levels through 10 June, returning to
moderate levels on 11-12 June. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux has a
slight chance of crossing threshold through 12 Jun.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind speed suggested the passage of a weak transient starting near
09/0950 UTC, with an increase of the total IMF from 5nT to 10 nT and the
Bz component turning predominately south until about 09/1500 UTC.
Another period of southward Bz component occurred between 09/1635-2000
UTC, reaching -8 nT at 09/1810 UTC. The transient also resulted in an
increased density and temperature. Solar wind speed remained oscillating
around 450 km/s during the period. The Phi angle remained mostly in the
positive sector during the day.

.Forecast...
Background solar wind conditions are expected to be restored by 11 June,
and a -CH HSS is anticipated to become geoeffective on 12 June,
disturbing the near-Earth solar wind parameters.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past
24 hours.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on 10
and 12 June, with a day of quiet to unsettled levels in between (11
Jun).

27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2026 Jun 08     135          50          7
2026 Jun 09     132          32          6
2026 Jun 10     130          12          3
2026 Jun 11     130          15          3
2026 Jun 12     128          10          3
2026 Jun 13     128           6          2
2026 Jun 14     120           6          2
2026 Jun 15     118           8          3
2026 Jun 16     120           8          3
2026 Jun 17     122           5          2
2026 Jun 18     122           5          2
2026 Jun 19     125           5          2
2026 Jun 20     125           5          2
2026 Jun 21     128           8          3
2026 Jun 22     130           8          3
2026 Jun 23     132          10          4
2026 Jun 24     134          15          4
2026 Jun 25     134          15          4
2026 Jun 26     132          15          4
2026 Jun 27     130          10          3
2026 Jun 28     132           8          3
2026 Jun 29     130           6          2
2026 Jun 30     128           8          3
2026 Jul 01     125           5          2
2026 Jul 02     130           5          2
2026 Jul 03     128          12          3
2026 Jul 04     125           8          3

Save as 'My Presets'

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.
From Date: (YYYY-MM-DD HH:MM). Leave empty for real-time.

Range: (in hours, WARNING 1 hour = ~10KB of data)
Local Time Zone:
Enable Forecast / Timeshift (Recommended) Enable Fixed Y Axis Values Combine Y Series (B*, Proton, Dyn Preasure & Kp). Show Axis Titles Show Graph Legend (Keys) Enable Auto Update (Range will be reduced to 2 hours) Enable Night Vision Red Theme

DATA SOURCES: Learn more
Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.
'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

AF Index (Experemental) AF Community Activity (Hits)
Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

SWPC Kp (Observation)
SWPC Kp (Prediction) GeoSpace Kp (Prediction) Wing Kp (Legacy : Date < 22/06/18)
Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.

Northern Hemisphere (Aurora Borealis) Southern Hemisphere (Aurora Australis)
DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

Mag Bt (Total Strength) Mag Bx (X Axis) Mag By (Y Axis) Mag Bz (Z Axis) Solar Wind Speed Proton Density Dynamic Pressure (Calculated)
ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
Show ACE (When enabled the forecasting / timeshift feature will be disabled)
GOES Satalites: Learn more

GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

Primary Secondary Variation (Pri - Sec)
Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.

Macquarie Island (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Mawson (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Canberra (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Ruru Obseratory (www.ruruobseratory.org.nz / NZ) Aurora Forecast #1 (Hobart) Aurora Forecast #2 (Hobart) Aurora Forecast #3 (Hobart)
User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.

v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)

v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.

v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).

v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.

> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)
Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

DATA SOURCES: Learn more Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

DATA SOURCES: Learn more
Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.