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Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 1471
Issue Time: 2026 Mar 26 1221 UTC

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2026 Mar 26 0617 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 607 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 3657
Issue Time: 2026 Mar 26 0459 UTC

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 3656
Begin Time: 2026 Mar 22 1430 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 8452 pfu
Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.


Solar-terrestrial indices for 26 March follow.
Solar flux 152 and estimated planetary A-index 14.
The estimated planetary K-index at 2100 UTC on 26 March was 2.00.

Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor.
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level occurred.

Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be minor.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are likely.


Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 24 Mar 016
Estimated Ap 25 Mar 018
Predicted Ap 26 Mar-28 Mar 020-008-005

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Mar-28 Mar
Active                35/25/15
Minor storm           45/05/01
Moderate storm        05/01/01
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 26 Mar - 28 Mar
             Mar 26    Mar 27    Mar 28
00-03UT        4.67      2.33      1.67
03-06UT        4.67      2.67      2.00
06-09UT        4.00      2.00      1.33
09-12UT        2.67      2.00      0.67
12-15UT        2.67      1.67      1.33
15-18UT        3.00      2.00      1.33
18-21UT        2.33      2.00      1.67
21-00UT        2.00      2.33      1.67


Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 26-Mar 28 2026 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 26-Mar 28 2026

             Mar 26       Mar 27       Mar 28
00-03UT       2.67         2.33         1.67
03-06UT       1.67         2.67         2.00
06-09UT       2.67         2.00         1.33
09-12UT       2.33         2.00         0.67
12-15UT       2.67         1.67         1.33
15-18UT       3.00         2.00         1.33
18-21UT       2.33         2.00         1.67
21-00UT       4.67 (G1)    2.33         1.67

Rationale: Isolated periods of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are
possible on 26 Mar due to the potential for a minor glancing blow from a
CME passing near Earth.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 26-Mar 28 2026

              Mar 26  Mar 27  Mar 28
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.


C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Mar 26 2026 0623 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 26-Mar 28 2026

              Mar 26        Mar 27        Mar 28
R1-R2           30%           30%           30%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts,
with a slight chance for R3 (Strong) events, through 28 Mar.


Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels with a M3.9 flare at 26/0623 UTC
from Region 4403 (N16E54, Hsx/alpha). While 4403 was the suspected
source of several flares observed beyond the limb prior to its rotation
onto the
disk, a new spot group is just beginning to rotate on at roughly N14 and
may have been the culprit. The new region, and another rotating on at
S24, are awaiting better imagery before numbering.

The remaining disk regions exhibited varying degrees of decay and
evolution. Region 4397 (N15, L=300) has fully decayed to plage and
Region 4402 (N17E19, Cao/beta) may lose its leader spots within the next
reporting period. Region 4399 (S17E16, Cao/beta) continues to fluctuate
between a unipolar and bipolar state due to short-lived trailing spots.
Region 4401 (N25E11, Ekc/beta) exhibited persistent flux emergence and
an expansion of penumbral area in its intermediary spots, though it has
yet to produce any flares of note.

An eruption associated with the M3.9 became visible in SOHO LASCO C2
imagery at approximately 26/0648 UTC and in STEREO COR2 at 06/0708 UTC,
showing a rather faint and complex structure. Modeling that there may be
potential for this CME to interact with the CIR anticipated to arrive on
29-30 Mar.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares through 28 Mar.


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels with a peak 10,300 pfu at 26/1115 UTC. The greater than 10
MeV proton flux persisted at nominal background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue to reach
high levels through 28 Mar. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to continue at background levels.


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected the continued waning influence of a
negative polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (-CH HSS). Wind speed
decreased from approximately 550 km/s to 430 km/s. The interplanetary
magnetic field, Bt, also gradually decreased from 9 nT at the beginning
of the reporting period to maintaining a 4 nT average after roughly
25/2100 UTC. Bz has been primarily oriented northward and any southward
deflections are short-lived and less than 5 nT. The phi angle was
predominantly negative (towards the Sun).

.Forecast...
Additional solar wind enhancements are anticipated 26 Mar following the
potential arrival of another component of the 22 Mar CME. Following this
passage, a gradual return to a nominal, slow-speed regime is forecast
throughout 28 Mar.


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active conditions.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to reach unsettled to active levels
with isolated G1 (Minor) storming periods possible on 26 Mar. As these
influences subside, conditions are forecast to drop to unsettled levels
on 27 Mar, with a return to mostly quiet levels by 28 Mar.


27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2026 Mar 23     120          34          6
2026 Mar 24     120          14          3
2026 Mar 25     122          12          3
2026 Mar 26     125          12          3
2026 Mar 27     130           8          3
2026 Mar 28     130           5          2
2026 Mar 29     128           8          3
2026 Mar 30     125          15          4
2026 Mar 31     125          10          3
2026 Apr 01     130           5          2
2026 Apr 02     120           5          2
2026 Apr 03     120          18          5
2026 Apr 04     115          24          5
2026 Apr 05     110          10          3
2026 Apr 06     120          15          4
2026 Apr 07     120           8          3
2026 Apr 08     118           7          2
2026 Apr 09     120          25          5
2026 Apr 10     110          40          6
2026 Apr 11     112          20          5
2026 Apr 12     115          12          3
2026 Apr 13     115           8          3
2026 Apr 14     110           7          2
2026 Apr 15     115           5          2
2026 Apr 16     115           4          2
2026 Apr 17     120           7          2
2026 Apr 18     122          48          6


  • GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
    It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

  • DATA SOURCES: Learn more
    Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

  • 'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
    These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

    The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

    Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

  • Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
    The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

    Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

  • Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
    The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.
  • DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

    The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

    Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

  • ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

    ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
  • GOES Satalites: Learn more

    GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

  • Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
    Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
    These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
    There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.
  • User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
    If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
    Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

 

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.


v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
 
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
 
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
 
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
 
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)

  Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey