Aurora Forecast

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27 Day

Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 1506
Issue Time: 2026 Jun 20 0407 UTC

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2026 Jun 20 0407 UTC
Estimate Velocity: 300 km/s

Comment:

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 1505
Issue Time: 2026 Jun 20 0406 UTC

CANCEL ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Cancel Serial Number: 1504
Original Issue Time: 2026 Jun 20 0403 UTC
Cancelling duplicate Type-II Alert
Cancelling duplicate Type-II Alert

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 1504
Issue Time: 2026 Jun 20 0403 UTC

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2026 Jun 20 0300 UTC
Estimate Velocity: 300 km/s

Comment:

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 1504
Issue Time: 2026 Jun 20 0403 UTC

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2026 Jun 20 0300 UTC
Estimate Velocity: 300 km/s

Comment:

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 1504
Issue Time: 2026 Jun 20 0403 UTC

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2026 Jun 20 0300 UTC
Estimate Velocity: 300 km/s

Comment:

Solar-terrestrial indices for 19 June follow.
Solar flux 111 and estimated planetary A-index 7.
The estimated planetary K-index at 1500 UTC on 20 June was 2.00.

Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor.
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level occurred.

No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.

Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 18 Jun 006
Estimated Ap 19 Jun 010
Predicted Ap 20 Jun-22 Jun 012-010-005

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jun-22 Jun
Active                35/25/10
Minor storm           20/10/01
Moderate storm        05/01/01
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 20 Jun - 22 Jun
             Jun 20    Jun 21    Jun 22
00-03UT        2.67      2.67      1.67
03-06UT        3.67      3.00      2.00
06-09UT        2.67      3.00      1.67
09-12UT        2.67      2.67      1.67
12-15UT        1.67      1.67      1.00
15-18UT        1.67      1.67      1.33
18-21UT        2.67      1.67      0.67
21-00UT        3.00      2.00      1.67

Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 20-Jun 22 2026 is 3.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 20-Jun 22 2026

             Jun 20       Jun 21       Jun 22
00-03UT       2.67         2.67         1.67
03-06UT       2.00         3.00         2.00
06-09UT       2.00         2.67         1.67
09-12UT       1.67         2.00         1.67
12-15UT       1.67         1.67         1.00
15-18UT       1.00         0.67         1.33
18-21UT       1.67         1.00         0.67
21-00UT       2.67         1.67         1.67

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 20-Jun 22 2026

              Jun 20  Jun 21  Jun 22
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Jun 20 2026 0151 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 20-Jun 22 2026

              Jun 20        Jun 21        Jun 22
R1-R2           20%           20%           20%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for R1 (Minor) or greater radio
blackouts over 20-22 Jun.

Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels when Region 4472 (S14E61,
Cao/beta) produced an M1.3 flare (R1-Minor) at 20/0151 UTC; the
strongest of the period. Region 4470 (N08E21, Dao/beta) exhibited minor
growth this period and produced a C1.4 flare at 20/0307 UTC that was
accompanied by a Type-II radio sweep (~300 km/s). The remaining regions
were either stable or in decay. New spots were observed rotating into
view on the E limb near S08, but these remain unnumbered pending
additional observational data.

A CME associated with the M1.3 flare at 20/0151 UTC, and first visible
in LASCO C2 imagery off the E at 20/0212 UTC, is expected to miss Earth.
Another CME, first visible in C2 imagery at 20/0312 UTC, was associated
with activity on the far side and is not Earth-directed.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels on 20-22 Jun, with
a slight chance for M-class (R1-Minor) flares.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate
levels over 20-22 Jun. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected
to remain at background levels through 22 Jun.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters remained mildly enhanced under positive polarity
CH HSS influences. Total magnetic field strength reached 10 nT, and the
Bz component was observed as far south as -7 nT. Solar wind speeds
ranged between ~360-460 km/s. Phi angle was primarily oriented in a
positive solar sector.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain slightly enhanced through
21 Jun due to CH HSS influences.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels under waning CH
HSS influences.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at quiet to unsettled
levels on 20-21 Jun as CH HSS influences diminish. Mostly quiet
conditions are expected to prevail on 22 Jun.

27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2026 Jun 15     120           8          3
2026 Jun 16     122           8          3
2026 Jun 17     135           8          3
2026 Jun 18     135           5          2
2026 Jun 19     132          12          4
2026 Jun 20     132          10          3
2026 Jun 21     130           5          2
2026 Jun 22     112           8          3
2026 Jun 23     135          12          4
2026 Jun 24     136           5          2
2026 Jun 25     138           5          2
2026 Jun 26     140           5          2
2026 Jun 27     135          10          3
2026 Jun 28     118          10          3
2026 Jun 29     130           5          2
2026 Jun 30     115           5          2
2026 Jul 01     130           8          3
2026 Jul 02     130          10          3
2026 Jul 03     136           5          2
2026 Jul 04     118          10          3
2026 Jul 05     130           8          3
2026 Jul 06     128           8          3
2026 Jul 07     128           5          2
2026 Jul 08     128          15          4
2026 Jul 09     125           8          3
2026 Jul 10     125          12          4
2026 Jul 11     120           8          3

Save as 'My Presets'

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.
From Date: (YYYY-MM-DD HH:MM). Leave empty for real-time.

Range: (in hours, WARNING 1 hour = ~10KB of data)
Local Time Zone:
Enable Forecast / Timeshift (Recommended) Enable Fixed Y Axis Values Combine Y Series (B*, Proton, Dyn Preasure & Kp). Show Axis Titles Show Graph Legend (Keys) Enable Auto Update (Range will be reduced to 2 hours) Enable Night Vision Red Theme

DATA SOURCES: Learn more
Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.
'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

AF Index (Experemental) AF Community Activity (Hits)
Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

SWPC Kp (Observation)
SWPC Kp (Prediction) GeoSpace Kp (Prediction) Wing Kp (Legacy : Date < 22/06/18)
Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.

Northern Hemisphere (Aurora Borealis) Southern Hemisphere (Aurora Australis)
DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

Mag Bt (Total Strength) Mag Bx (X Axis) Mag By (Y Axis) Mag Bz (Z Axis) Solar Wind Speed Proton Density Dynamic Pressure (Calculated)
ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
Show ACE (When enabled the forecasting / timeshift feature will be disabled)
GOES Satalites: Learn more

GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

Primary Secondary Variation (Pri - Sec)
Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.

Macquarie Island (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Mawson (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Canberra (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Ruru Obseratory (www.ruruobseratory.org.nz / NZ) Aurora Forecast #1 (Hobart) Aurora Forecast #2 (Hobart) Aurora Forecast #3 (Hobart)
User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.

v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)

v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.

v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).

v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.

> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)
Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

DATA SOURCES: Learn more Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

DATA SOURCES: Learn more
Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.