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Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5150
Issue Time: 2025 Nov 15 2002 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2025 Nov 15 2000 UTC
Valid To: 2025 Nov 16 0300 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: SUMPX1
Serial Number: 126
Issue Time: 2025 Nov 14 2338 UTC

SUMMARY: Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 10pfu
Begin Time: 2025 Nov 14 0920 UTC
Maximum Time: 2025 Nov 14 0950 UTC
End Time: 2025 Nov 14 1325 UTC
Maximum 10MeV Flux: 16 pfu
NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation


Solar-terrestrial indices for 15 November follow.
Solar flux 132 and estimated planetary A-index 8.
The estimated planetary K-index at 2100 UTC on 15 November was 3.33.

Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor.
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level occurred.

Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be moderate.
Radio blackouts reaching the R2 level are likely.


Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 14 Nov 005
Estimated Ap 15 Nov 008
Predicted Ap 16 Nov-18 Nov 015-022-012

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Nov-18 Nov
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           35/40/25
Moderate storm        15/20/05
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 16 Nov - 18 Nov
             Nov 16    Nov 17    Nov 18
00-03UT        3.67      3.67      3.00
03-06UT        1.67      4.67      3.67
06-09UT        1.33      4.00      3.00
09-12UT        1.33      3.67      2.67
12-15UT        2.00      3.33      2.33
15-18UT        2.00      3.33      2.33
18-21UT        3.33      3.00      2.33
21-00UT        5.00      3.00      2.00


Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 15-Nov 17 2025 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 15-Nov 17 2025

             Nov 15       Nov 16       Nov 17
00-03UT       1.67         2.00         3.67
03-06UT       1.33         1.67         4.67 (G1)
06-09UT       2.00         1.33         4.00
09-12UT       1.67         1.33         3.67
12-15UT       2.00         2.00         3.33
15-18UT       3.00         3.33         3.33
18-21UT       2.33         4.00         3.00
21-00UT       2.00         5.00 (G1)    3.00

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely over 16-17 Nov due
to the anticipated influence of a negative polarity coronal hole.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
above S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 15-Nov 17 2025

              Nov 15  Nov 16  Nov 17
S1 or greater   20%     15%     10%

Rationale: There exists a slight chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar
radiation storms over 15-17 Nov due to the eruptive potential from
Region 4274.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Nov 14 2025 2012 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 15-Nov 17 2025

              Nov 15        Nov 16        Nov 17
R1-R2           70%           60%           55%
R3 or greater   30%           25%           25%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a
chance for R3 (Strong), over 15-17 Nov due to the flare potential from
Region 4274.


Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at moderate (R1-Minor) levels. Region 4274 (N25W80,
Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) produced two impulsive M1.3 flares at 14/2012 UTC
and 14/2131 UTC. Only minor changes were observed in seven numbered
regions across the visible disk.

An approximately 20 degree-long filament, centered near N30W38, was
observed lifting off the disk in GONG H-alpha imagery from ~14/1800-1930
UTC. Most of the ejecta was reabsorbed aside from a narrow CME observed
in LASCO/SOHO C2 imagery beginning at 14/1912 UTC. No Earth-directed
component is suspected.

Another eruption along a filament channel was observed in the SE
quadrant after ~15/0430 UTC. Subsequent coronagraph imagery contained a
slow-moving, southward oriented CME signature. Modelling of the ejecta
is ongoing.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to reach moderate levels
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate), with a chance for X-class (R3-Strong) activity
on 15-17 Nov, mostly due to the flare potential of Region 4274.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux were at moderate levels.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux decreased below S1 (Minor) levels at
14/1325 UTC. Peak flux for the event was 16.5 pfu. The activity was
associated with an X4.0 flare from Region 4274 on 14 Nov.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate
levels on 15-17 Nov.

There is a slight chance the greater than 10 MeV proton flux could see
additional S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm levels on 15-16 Nov while
Region 4274 continues to transit the W limb.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected decreasing CME influence from the 11
Nov event. Solar wind speed were between 525-625 km/s. Total magnetic
field strength varied between 4-7 nT. No significant periods of
southward Bz were observed.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to continue to be enhanced but waning
through 15 Nov as CME influences diminish. Speeds in the 500-600 km/s
range are likely through 15 Nov. By mid to late on 16 Nov, a co-rotating
interaction region (CIR), preceding a negative polarity CH HSS, will
likely become geoeffective causing another enhancement in the solar wind
parameters over 16-17 Nov.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
As solar wind speeds remain elevated yet waning, there is still a
decreasing chance for an isolated period of G1 (Minor) storm conditions
on 15 Nov. However, mostly quiet to unsettled levels are expected for
most of 15 Nov, continuing through late on 16 Nov until the anticipated
arrival of a CIR/CH HSS later in the UTC day. Active to G1 (Minor) storm
levels are likely on 16-17 Nov.


27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2025 Nov 10     175          18          5
2025 Nov 11     180          35          6
2025 Nov 12     180          25          6
2025 Nov 13     185           8          3
2025 Nov 14     180           5          2
2025 Nov 15     170           5          2
2025 Nov 16     165          10          3
2025 Nov 17     170          10          3
2025 Nov 18     165           5          2
2025 Nov 19     160           5          2
2025 Nov 20     155          12          4
2025 Nov 21     155          10          3
2025 Nov 22     160           5          2
2025 Nov 23     155           5          2
2025 Nov 24     150          15          4
2025 Nov 25     145          18          5
2025 Nov 26     140          25          5
2025 Nov 27     145          20          5
2025 Nov 28     145          10          3
2025 Nov 29     140          12          4
2025 Nov 30     135          15          4
2025 Dec 01     140           8          3
2025 Dec 02     145          18          5
2025 Dec 03     150          25          5
2025 Dec 04     150          20          5
2025 Dec 05     145          12          4
2025 Dec 06     150           8          3


  • GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
    It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

  • DATA SOURCES: Learn more
    Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

  • 'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
    These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

    The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

    Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

  • Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
    The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

    Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

  • Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
    The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.
  • DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

    The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

    Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

  • ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

    ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
  • GOES Satalites: Learn more

    GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

  • Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
    Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
    These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
    There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.
  • User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
    If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
    Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

 

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.


v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
 
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
 
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
 
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
 
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)

  Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey