Presets:
close
Ovation: South
North
Weather: TAS
Presets: Presets

Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 3574
Issue Time: 2025 Dec 08 1237 UTC

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 3573
Begin Time: 2025 Dec 05 1530 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 1453 pfu
Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

Space Weather Message Code: SUMX01
Serial Number: 204
Issue Time: 2025 Dec 08 0513 UTC

SUMMARY: X-ray Event exceeded X1
Begin Time: 2025 Dec 08 0449 UTC
Maximum Time: 2025 Dec 08 0501 UTC
End Time: 2025 Dec 08 0504 UTC
X-ray Class: X1.1
Location: S18W55
NOAA Scale: R3 - Strong
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact consists of large portions of the sunlit side of Earth, strongest at the sub-solar point.
Radio - Wide area blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for about an hour.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTXMF
Serial Number: 505
Issue Time: 2025 Dec 08 0502 UTC

ALERT: X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2025 Dec 08 0500 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 1452
Issue Time: 2025 Dec 08 0046 UTC

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2025 Dec 08 0017 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 317 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 3573
Issue Time: 2025 Dec 07 2139 UTC

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 3572
Begin Time: 2025 Dec 05 1530 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 2135 pfu
Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.


Solar-terrestrial indices for 07 December follow.
Solar flux 194 and estimated planetary A-index 8.
The estimated planetary K-index at 1500 UTC on 08 December was 0.00.

Space weather for the past 24 hours has been strong.
Radio blackouts reaching the R3 level occurred.

Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be strong.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G3 level are expected.
Radio blackouts reaching the R2 level are likely.


Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 06 Dec 016
Estimated Ap 07 Dec 013
Predicted Ap 08 Dec-10 Dec 018-070-033

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Dec-10 Dec
Active                20/02/25
Minor storm           25/20/30
Moderate storm        20/25/30
Strong-Extreme storm  20/51/10

NOAA Kp index forecast 08 Dec - 10 Dec
             Dec 08    Dec 09    Dec 10
00-03UT        3.00      5.00      5.33
03-06UT        3.00      5.67      5.00
06-09UT        2.00      6.67      5.00
09-12UT        1.00      6.00      4.33
12-15UT        2.00      6.67      4.00
15-18UT        3.33      5.33      3.67
18-21UT        4.33      5.00      3.67
21-00UT        5.00      4.67      1.33


Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 08-Dec 10 2025 is 6.67 (NOAA Scale
G3).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 08-Dec 10 2025

             Dec 08       Dec 09       Dec 10
00-03UT       0.33         5.00 (G1)    5.33 (G1)
03-06UT       0.67         5.67 (G2)    5.00 (G1)
06-09UT       0.33         6.67 (G3)    5.00 (G1)
09-12UT       0.33         6.00 (G2)    4.33
12-15UT       2.00         6.67 (G3)    4.00
15-18UT       3.33         5.33 (G1)    3.67
18-21UT       4.33         5.00 (G1)    3.67
21-00UT       5.00 (G1)    4.67 (G1)    1.33

Rationale: Periods of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 08-10
Dec, with periods of G2-G3 (Moderate-Strong) storms likely on 09 Dec,
due to the anticipated passage of a CME from 06 Dec.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Dec 08-Dec 10 2025

              Dec 08  Dec 09  Dec 10
S1 or greater   15%     15%     15%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar
radiation storms on 08-10 Dec.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Dec 08 2025 0501 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Dec 08-Dec 10 2025

              Dec 08        Dec 09        Dec 10
R1-R2           65%           65%           65%
R3 or greater   15%           15%           15%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a
slight chance for R3 (Strong) or greater events, on 08-10 Dec.


Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached high levels. Region 4298 (S16W57, Cso/beta)
produced an impulsive X1.1/2b (R3-Strong) flare at 08/0501 UTC. Region
4299 (N22W18, Dai/beta-gamma-delta) produced an M2.4/2n (R1-Minor) flare
at 08/0012 UTC and an M1.8/1n (R1-Minor) flare at 08/0654 UTC. This
region maintained mixed polarity, though has faded within the delta
portion.

Region 4294 (S16W35, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) produced an M2.0/1n flare at
08/0036 UTC. The region increased in penumbral area among its
intermediate spots over the past 24 hours. Regions 4294 and 4296
(S14W23, Ekc/beta-delta) were the largest on the visible disk. New
Region 4304 (N26W01, Bxo/beta) was numbered. Only minor changes were
observed in the other numbered active regions.

Eruptions from the M1.8/1n flare at 08/0012 UTC and the X1.1/2b flare at
08/0501 UTC both appeared to be reabsorbed with no discernable CME
activity.

.Forecast...
M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) are likely over 08-10 Dec, with a
slight chance for X-class flares (R3/Strong), given past flare history
and the potential of current active regions on the disk.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux in geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels with a peak flux of 1,452 pfu at 07/1545 UTC. The greater
than 10 MeV proton flux in geosynchronous orbit was elevated slightly
above background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on
08-09 Dec, and then decrease to normal to moderate levels on 10 Dec.

A slight chance exists for a greater than 10 MeV proton flux enhancement
above 10 pfu (S1/Minor) through 10 Dec due to the eruptive potential of
multiple active regions across the visible disk.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected the waning influence of a negative
polarity CH HSS and possible onset of an anticipated weak transient that
left the Sun on 04 Dec. A steady upward trend in total magnetic field
strength began after 07/1100 UTC and peaked around 10 nT at 07/1319 UTC.
The Bz component remained entirely positive. Solar wind speeds decreased
from ~500 km/s during that timeframe to ~375 km/s by periods end. Phi
was primarily oriented in a negative solar sector.

.Forecast...
The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced on 08 Dec due
to glancing effects from a CME that left the Sun on 04 Dec. Further
enhancements from a CME that left the Sun on 06 Dec are likely to begin
within an arrival window of late on 08 Dec to midday on 09 Dec.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
Geomagnetic activity was at quiet levels due to waning negative polarity
coronal hole influences.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is likely to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm
levels on 08 Dec due to the influence of the periphery of a CME that
left the Sun on 04 Dec. G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storm levels are likely
on 09 Dec due to the anticipated influence of the CME that left the Sun
on 06 Dec. G1 conditions on 10 Dec are likely due to waning CME effects.


27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2025 Dec 08     190          18          5
2025 Dec 09     190          70          7
2025 Dec 10     185          33          5
2025 Dec 11     175          10          3
2025 Dec 12     155           5          2
2025 Dec 13     140          12          4
2025 Dec 14     130          12          4
2025 Dec 15     130           8          3
2025 Dec 16     135           5          2
2025 Dec 17     135           8          3
2025 Dec 18     140          10          3
2025 Dec 19     140           8          3
2025 Dec 20     140           8          3
2025 Dec 21     140          15          5
2025 Dec 22     140          20          5
2025 Dec 23     145          20          5
2025 Dec 24     160          25          5
2025 Dec 25     170          20          5
2025 Dec 26     180          20          5
2025 Dec 27     180          15          4
2025 Dec 28     180          10          3
2025 Dec 29     175           8          3
2025 Dec 30     180          30          6
2025 Dec 31     180          25          5
2026 Jan 01     175          10          3
2026 Jan 02     170          10          3
2026 Jan 03     170           8          3


  • GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
    It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

  • DATA SOURCES: Learn more
    Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

  • 'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
    These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

    The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

    Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

  • Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
    The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

    Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

  • Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
    The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.
  • DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

    The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

    Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

  • ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

    ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
  • GOES Satalites: Learn more

    GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

  • Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
    Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
    These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
    There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.
  • User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
    If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
    Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

 

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.


v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
 
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
 
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
 
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
 
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)

  Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey