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27 Day

Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 3489
Issue Time: 2025 Jul 02 0528 UTC

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 3488
Begin Time: 2025 Jun 27 1310 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 2650 pfu
Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

Solar-terrestrial indices for 02 July follow.
Solar flux 130 and estimated planetary A-index 7.
The estimated planetary K-index at 0300 UTC on 03 July was 2.67.

No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be minor.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are likely.

Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 01 Jul 007
Estimated Ap 02 Jul 011
Predicted Ap 03 Jul-05 Jul 022-012-010

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jul-05 Jul
Active                25/35/25
Minor storm           40/25/05
Moderate storm        15/05/01
Strong-Extreme storm  05/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 03 Jul - 05 Jul
             Jul 03    Jul 04    Jul 05
00-03UT        4.67      2.67      3.00
03-06UT        4.67      4.00      2.67
06-09UT        4.00      3.00      2.33
09-12UT        2.67      2.67      2.00
12-15UT        2.33      1.67      2.33
15-18UT        2.67      1.67      2.33
18-21UT        3.00      2.00      2.33
21-00UT        3.67      2.67      2.67

Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 03-Jul 05 2025 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 03-Jul 05 2025

             Jul 03       Jul 04       Jul 05
00-03UT       4.67 (G1)    2.67         3.00
03-06UT       4.67 (G1)    4.00         2.67
06-09UT       4.00         3.00         2.33
09-12UT       2.67         2.67         2.00
12-15UT       2.33         1.67         2.33
15-18UT       2.67         1.67         2.33
18-21UT       3.00         2.00         2.33
21-00UT       3.67         2.67         2.67

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels are likely on 03 Jul due
to the arrival of the 28 Jun CME.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 03-Jul 05 2025

              Jul 03  Jul 04  Jul 05
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 03-Jul 05 2025

              Jul 03        Jul 04        Jul 05
R1-R2           15%           15%           15%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: A slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
due to isolated M-class flare activity will persist through 05 July.

Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. Region 4126 (N07W84, Dro/beta)
produced a few low level C-class flares as it began its tranist of the
western limb. Region 4132 (S17E42, Axx/alpha) exhibited decay as it
produced a low level C-class flare as well. Regions 4127 (S18W09,
Dai/beta) and 4129 (N02E09, Cri/beta) continued to grow, developing
additional spots and increasing in length. Region 4133 (S17W79,
Axx/alpha) was numbered this period, but was otherwise unremarkable. The
remaining active regions were relatively stable and quiet. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
A slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts due to
isolated M-class flare activity will persist through 05 July.

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak
flux of 4,930 pfu observed at 02/1430 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels through 04 July with a chance for a return to high
levels on 05 July. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to
continue at background levels through 05 July.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected a mostly nominal solar wind environment.
Total field ranged 2-7 nT and the Bz component was -4 to 2 nT. Solar
wind speeds gradually decreased from ~450 km/s to near 360 km/s by the
end of the period. Phi was predominantly in the negative solar sector.

.Forecast...
Enhancements in the IMF are likely on 03 July with the arrival of a CME
that left the Sun on 28 Jun. An additional enhancement due to faster
solar wind influences is expected by early 04 July, continuing into 05
July.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely 03 July due to the
aforementioned CME effects. Unsettled to active periods are expected on
04 July due to CH HSS effects which expected to continue into 05 July
resulting in primarily unsettled conditions.

27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2025 Jun 30     123           5          2
2025 Jul 01     120           5          2
2025 Jul 02     117          28          5
2025 Jul 03     115          20          5
2025 Jul 04     120          12          4
2025 Jul 05     120           8          3
2025 Jul 06     125           8          3
2025 Jul 07     125          10          3
2025 Jul 08     130          10          3
2025 Jul 09     135          10          3
2025 Jul 10     135           5          2
2025 Jul 11     140          15          4
2025 Jul 12     145          15          4
2025 Jul 13     145          10          3
2025 Jul 14     140          10          3
2025 Jul 15     135          12          4
2025 Jul 16     135          12          4
2025 Jul 17     130          10          3
2025 Jul 18     125          10          3
2025 Jul 19     125          10          3
2025 Jul 20     125           5          2
2025 Jul 21     120           5          2
2025 Jul 22     120          12          4
2025 Jul 23     120          20          5
2025 Jul 24     120          18          5
2025 Jul 25     120           8          3
2025 Jul 26     120           5          2

Save as 'My Presets'

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.
From Date: (YYYY-MM-DD HH:MM). Leave empty for real-time.

Range: (in hours, WARNING 1 hour = ~10KB of data)
Local Time Zone:
Enable Forecast / Timeshift (Recommended) Enable Fixed Y Axis Values Combine Y Series (B*, Proton, Dyn Preasure & Kp). Show Axis Titles Show Graph Legend (Keys) Enable Auto Update (Range will be reduced to 2 hours) Enable Night Vision Red Theme

DATA SOURCES: Learn more
Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.
'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

AF Index (Experemental) AF Community Activity (Hits)
Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

SWPC Kp (Observation)
SWPC Kp (Prediction) GeoSpace Kp (Prediction) Wing Kp (Legacy : Date < 22/06/18)
Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.

Northern Hemisphere (Aurora Borealis) Southern Hemisphere (Aurora Australis)
DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

Mag Bt (Total Strength) Mag Bx (X Axis) Mag By (Y Axis) Mag Bz (Z Axis) Solar Wind Speed Proton Density Dynamic Pressure (Calculated)
ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
Show ACE (When enabled the forecasting / timeshift feature will be disabled)
GOES Satalites: Learn more

GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

Primary Secondary Variation (Pri - Sec)
Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.

Macquarie Island (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Mawson (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Canberra (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Ruru Obseratory (www.ruruobseratory.org.nz / NZ) Aurora Forecast #1 (Hobart) Aurora Forecast #2 (Hobart) Aurora Forecast #3 (Hobart)
User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.

v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)

v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.

v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).

v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.

> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)
Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

DATA SOURCES: Learn more Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

DATA SOURCES: Learn more
Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.