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Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 3602
Issue Time: 2026 Jan 16 1227 UTC

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 3601
Begin Time: 2026 Jan 12 1040 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 9014 pfu
Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK04
Serial Number: 2624
Issue Time: 2026 Jan 16 0515 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Synoptic Period: 0300-0600 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5221
Issue Time: 2026 Jan 16 0254 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2026 Jan 16 0254 UTC
Valid To: 2026 Jan 16 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: WATA20
Serial Number: 1089
Issue Time: 2026 Jan 15 2055 UTC

WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted
Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Jan 16:  None (Below G1)   Jan 17:  G1 (Minor)   Jan 18:  G1 (Minor)
THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.


Solar-terrestrial indices for 15 January follow.
Solar flux 139 and estimated planetary A-index 12.
The estimated planetary K-index at 1200 UTC on 16 January was 2.67.

No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be minor.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level .


Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 14 Jan 007
Estimated Ap 15 Jan 011
Predicted Ap 16 Jan-18 Jan 012-025-022

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jan-18 Jan
Active                30/35/35
Minor storm           15/35/40
Moderate storm        01/25/15
Strong-Extreme storm  01/05/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 16 Jan - 18 Jan
             Jan 16    Jan 17    Jan 18
00-03UT        3.00      2.33      3.67
03-06UT        3.67      4.00      3.33
06-09UT        3.00      5.33      3.33
09-12UT        2.33      4.67      3.33
12-15UT        2.00      3.33      3.67
15-18UT        2.00      2.33      3.33
18-21UT        2.33      3.00      4.67
21-00UT        3.00      4.00      3.33


Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 16-Jan 18 2026 is 5.33 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 16-Jan 18 2026

             Jan 16       Jan 17       Jan 18
00-03UT       3.33         2.33         3.67
03-06UT       3.67         4.00         3.33
06-09UT       3.00         5.33 (G1)    3.33
09-12UT       2.67         4.67 (G1)    3.33
12-15UT       2.67         3.33         3.67
15-18UT       2.67         2.33         3.33
18-21UT       3.00         3.00         4.67 (G1)
21-00UT       3.67         4.00         3.33

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely over 17-18 Jan due
to anticipated influence from a coronal hole.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 16-Jan 18 2026

              Jan 16  Jan 17  Jan 18
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 16-Jan 18 2026

              Jan 16        Jan 17        Jan 18
R1-R2           55%           55%           55%
R3 or greater   10%           10%           10%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a
slight chance for R3 (Strong), over 16-17 Jan.


Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. The largest flare was a C6.6/SF flare
from Region 4345 (S17E56, Cro/beta). Region 4341 (S11E48,
Dkc/beta-gamma-delta) remained the mostly complex region on the disk but
was mostly quiet over the past 24 hours. No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with M-class flares likely (R1-R2,
Minor-Moderate) and a slight chance for X-class flares (R3-Strong) on
16-18 Jan mainly due to the flare potential of AR 4341.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak
flux of 9,010 pfu at 15/1645 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
remained at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue to reach
high levels on 16 Jan. A brief return to moderate levels on 17 Jan is
likely with the arrival of a positive polarity CH HSS. High levels are
expected to return on 18 Jan. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were elevated, likely due to transient activity.
An increase in solar wind speeds from ~550 km/s to a peak of ~700 km/s
began after 16/0214 UTC. Total magnetic field strength increased from ~5
nT to 13 nT. The Bz component of the IMF was oriented primarily
northward with the exception of a brief rotation southward to 11 nT
around 16/0327 UTC.

.Forecast...
Weak CME influence is expected to subside through 16 Jan. Another
enhancement in the solar wind is expected over 17-18 Jan when
a recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS is expected to become
geoeffective. Solar wind speed is likely to exceed 700 km/s based on
recurrence data.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active levels.

.Forecast...
Quiet to active levels are expected on 16 Jan due to residual CME
effects. Over 17-18 Jan, a positive polarity CH HSS is expected to
be geoeffective, causing unsettled to G1 (Minor) storming, with a
chance for G2 (Moderate).


27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2026 Jan 12     110          28          6
2026 Jan 13     110          18          4
2026 Jan 14     112          12          4
2026 Jan 15     110           8          3
2026 Jan 16     108           8          3
2026 Jan 17     106           5          2
2026 Jan 18     106           5          2
2026 Jan 19     110          18          4
2026 Jan 20     115          15          4
2026 Jan 21     125          12          4
2026 Jan 22     135           8          3
2026 Jan 23     140           6          2
2026 Jan 24     135           6          2
2026 Jan 25     135           6          2
2026 Jan 26     135           6          2
2026 Jan 27     130          10          3
2026 Jan 28     125          15          4
2026 Jan 29     125          25          5
2026 Jan 30     130          12          4
2026 Jan 31     130          10          3
2026 Feb 01     125           5          2
2026 Feb 02     120           5          2
2026 Feb 03     115           5          2
2026 Feb 04     110          15          4
2026 Feb 05     105          12          4
2026 Feb 06     105          10          3
2026 Feb 07     110           8          3


  • GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
    It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

  • DATA SOURCES: Learn more
    Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

  • 'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
    These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

    The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

    Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

  • Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
    The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

    Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

  • Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
    The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.
  • DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

    The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

    Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

  • ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

    ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
  • GOES Satalites: Learn more

    GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

  • Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
    Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
    These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
    There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.
  • User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
    If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
    Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

 

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.


v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
 
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
 
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
 
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
 
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)

  Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey