Aurora Forecast

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27 Day

Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5242
Issue Time: 2026 Jan 29 1139 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 5241
Valid From: 2026 Jan 27 2103 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2026 Jan 29 2100 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 3614
Issue Time: 2026 Jan 29 0459 UTC

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 3613
Begin Time: 2026 Jan 21 0950 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 10382 pfu
Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK05
Serial Number: 1962
Issue Time: 2026 Jan 28 2327 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Synoptic Period: 2100-2400 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5241
Issue Time: 2026 Jan 28 2217 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 5240
Valid From: 2026 Jan 27 2103 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2026 Jan 29 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK05
Serial Number: 2185
Issue Time: 2026 Jan 28 2217 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 2184
Valid From: 2026 Jan 28 1534 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2026 Jan 29 0900 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

Solar-terrestrial indices for 28 January follow.
Solar flux 133 and estimated planetary A-index 24.
The estimated planetary K-index at 1500 UTC on 29 January was 3.67.

Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level occurred.

No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.

Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 27 Jan 010
Estimated Ap 28 Jan 022
Predicted Ap 29 Jan-31 Jan 018-010-008

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jan-31 Jan
Active                35/25/25
Minor storm           25/15/15
Moderate storm        10/05/05
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 29 Jan - 31 Jan
             Jan 29    Jan 30    Jan 31
00-03UT        3.33      2.67      2.67
03-06UT        3.67      2.67      2.67
06-09UT        3.00      2.33      2.00
09-12UT        2.33      2.33      2.00
12-15UT        2.67      2.33      1.67
15-18UT        3.33      2.33      1.33
18-21UT        3.67      2.00      2.00
21-00UT        4.00      2.33      2.33

Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 29-Jan 31 2026 is 4.33 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 29-Jan 31 2026

             Jan 29       Jan 30       Jan 31
00-03UT       4.33         2.67         2.67
03-06UT       3.33         2.67         2.67
06-09UT       2.33         2.33         2.00
09-12UT       3.67         2.33         2.00
12-15UT       4.00         2.33         1.67
15-18UT       3.00         2.33         1.33
18-21UT       3.00         2.00         2.00
21-00UT       3.67         2.33         2.33

Rationale: Unsettled to active levels, with a chance for G1 (Minor)
storm levels, are expected for the rest of the UTC day on 29 Jan due to
CH HSS effects.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 29-Jan 31 2026

              Jan 29  Jan 30  Jan 31
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 29-Jan 31 2026

              Jan 29        Jan 30        Jan 31
R1-R2           15%           10%           10%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for
M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) through 31 Jan.

Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. Low level C-class flares were observed
from Regions 4355 (S13, L=298) and 4357 (S13W27, Cri/beta). Slight
growth was observed in Region 4357. Separation occurred in Region 4349
(S14W53, Hax/alpha). The resto of the spotted Regions were in decay. New
Region 4362 (S17E79, Hsx/alpha) rotated around the SE limb and was
numbered. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for M-class
flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) through 31 Jan.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak
flux of 10,382 pfu observed at 28/1710 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux was below the S1 (Minor) threshold.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at moderate
to high levels on 29-31 Jan. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to remain at or near background levels through 31 Jan.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected negative polarity CH HSS conditions.
Solar wind speed increased from approximately 540 km/s to near 700 km/s.
Total field decreased from 13 nT to around 6 nT while the Bz component
was between +/-12 nT. Phi angle was predominantly negative.

.Forecast...
Enhancements in the solar wind environment are expected on 29-31 Jan
under negative polarity CH HSS influences.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to G1 (Minor) storm levels due to
CH HSS effects.

.Forecast...
Unsettled to active levels, with a chance for G1 (Minor) storm levels,
are expected for the rest of the UTC day on 29 Jan. Quiet to unsettled
levels, with isolated active periods possible, are expected on 30-31 Jan
as HSS conditions persist.

27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2026 Jan 26     160           8          3
2026 Jan 27     150           8          3
2026 Jan 28     145          24          5
2026 Jan 29     135          18          4
2026 Jan 30     130          10          3
2026 Jan 31     120           8          3
2026 Feb 01     120           5          2
2026 Feb 02     130           5          2
2026 Feb 03     140           5          2
2026 Feb 04     140          15          4
2026 Feb 05     130          12          4
2026 Feb 06     120          10          3
2026 Feb 07     125           8          3
2026 Feb 08     130           8          3
2026 Feb 09     135          10          3
2026 Feb 10     140           8          3
2026 Feb 11     135           8          3
2026 Feb 12     140           5          2
2026 Feb 13     145          20          5
2026 Feb 14     145          15          4
2026 Feb 15     155          15          4
2026 Feb 16     160          15          4
2026 Feb 17     170          15          4
2026 Feb 18     180          15          4
2026 Feb 19     175          15          4
2026 Feb 20     170          15          4
2026 Feb 21     160          15          4

Save as 'My Presets'

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.
From Date: (YYYY-MM-DD HH:MM). Leave empty for real-time.

Range: (in hours, WARNING 1 hour = ~10KB of data)
Local Time Zone:
Enable Forecast / Timeshift (Recommended) Enable Fixed Y Axis Values Combine Y Series (B*, Proton, Dyn Preasure & Kp). Show Axis Titles Show Graph Legend (Keys) Enable Auto Update (Range will be reduced to 2 hours) Enable Night Vision Red Theme

DATA SOURCES: Learn more
Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.
'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

AF Index (Experemental) AF Community Activity (Hits)
Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

SWPC Kp (Observation)
SWPC Kp (Prediction) GeoSpace Kp (Prediction) Wing Kp (Legacy : Date < 22/06/18)
Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.

Northern Hemisphere (Aurora Borealis) Southern Hemisphere (Aurora Australis)
DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

Mag Bt (Total Strength) Mag Bx (X Axis) Mag By (Y Axis) Mag Bz (Z Axis) Solar Wind Speed Proton Density Dynamic Pressure (Calculated)
ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
Show ACE (When enabled the forecasting / timeshift feature will be disabled)
GOES Satalites: Learn more

GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

Primary Secondary Variation (Pri - Sec)
Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.

Macquarie Island (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Mawson (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Canberra (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Ruru Obseratory (www.ruruobseratory.org.nz / NZ) Aurora Forecast #1 (Hobart) Aurora Forecast #2 (Hobart) Aurora Forecast #3 (Hobart)
User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.

v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)

v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.

v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).

v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.

> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)
Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

DATA SOURCES: Learn more Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

DATA SOURCES: Learn more
Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.