Aurora Forecast

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27 Day

Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: WATA50
Serial Number: 100
Issue Time: 2026 Jun 08 2117 UTC

CANCELLED WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G3 Predicted
Cancel Serial Number: 99
Original Issued Time: 2026 Jun 06 2211 UTC
Due to current conditions no longer reflecting CME influence, the G3 Watch for 08 Jun and the G2 Watch for 09 Jun are cancelled.
Due to current conditions no longer reflecting CME influence, the G3 Watch for 08 Jun and the G2 Watch for 09 Jun are cancelled.

Solar-terrestrial indices for 08 June follow.
Solar flux 131 and estimated planetary A-index 8.
The estimated planetary K-index at 0300 UTC on 09 June was 2.00.

No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be moderate.
Radio blackouts reaching the R2 level are likely.

Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 07 Jun 008
Estimated Ap 08 Jun 009
Predicted Ap 09 Jun-11 Jun 017-010-015

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jun-11 Jun
Active                45/35/40
Minor storm           15/10/10
Moderate storm        01/01/01
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 09 Jun - 11 Jun
             Jun 09    Jun 10    Jun 11
00-03UT        4.33      3.00      2.00
03-06UT        4.00      3.33      2.00
06-09UT        3.00      2.33      3.00
09-12UT        3.33      2.00      2.67
12-15UT        2.33      2.00      3.00
15-18UT        1.67      2.00      3.33
18-21UT        3.00      2.33      3.00
21-00UT        2.67      2.33      4.00

Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 09-Jun 11 2026 is 4.33 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 09-Jun 11 2026

             Jun 09       Jun 10       Jun 11
00-03UT       4.33         3.00         2.00
03-06UT       4.00         3.33         2.00
06-09UT       3.00         2.33         3.00
09-12UT       3.33         2.00         2.67
12-15UT       2.33         2.00         3.00
15-18UT       1.67         2.00         3.33
18-21UT       3.00         2.33         3.00
21-00UT       2.67         2.33         4.00

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 09-Jun 11 2026

              Jun 09  Jun 10  Jun 11
S1 or greater   10%     10%     10%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 09-Jun 11 2026

              Jun 09        Jun 10        Jun 11
R1-R2           55%           55%           55%
R3 or greater   10%           10%           10%

Rationale: Isolated R1/R2 (Minor/Moderate) radio blackouts are likely,
with a slight chance for isolated R3 (Strong) events through 11 June,
primarily due to the flare potential exhibited by Regions 4456 (N17W61,
Dai/beta), 4462 (N15W07, Dsi/beta), 4464 and 4465.

Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at low levels with the two largest flares of the
day originating from Region 4465 (N11E70, Dao/beta): a C7.2 at 08/0249
UTC and a C4.5/Sf at 08/0510 UTC. There are eight active regions on
disk, most of them remained stable or showed some decay in area. Region
4464 (S12E24, Dac/beta-gamma) became more complex magnetically, gained
additional intermediary spots during the period, and was the source of a
C1.2 at 08/1733 UTC.

No new Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph
imagery.

.Forecast...
Isolated M-class flares are likely, with a slight chance for X-class
flares, through 11 June primarily due to the flare potential exhibited
by Regions 4456 (N17W61, Dai/beta), 4462 (N15W07, Dsi/beta), 4464 and
4465.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels with a peak flux of 1,310 pfu at 08/1340 UTC. The greater
than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels during the period.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux levels at geosynchronous orbit are
likely to continue reaching high levels through 10 June, returning to
moderate-low levels on 11 June. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to remain at background levels through 11 June.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters suggested a glancing blow from the 06 June CME
that was anticipated to arrive during the period. Solar wind speeds
decreased from about 600 km/s to below 450 km/s, while the total
Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) strength showed a slight oscillation
around 5nT. All the 3 components of the IMF vector became negative
between 08/0300 UTC and 08/1400 UTC, with Bz reaching as south as -4 nT
around 08/0919 UTC. The Phi angle remained mostly in the positive sector
during the day.

.Forecast...
Analysis of the solar wind parameters, along with the suprathermal ions
and electrons data from instruments at L1, suggested that the 06 June
CME glancing passage near Earth already occurred on 08 June, reducing
our confidence in further impacts on the next days. Therefore,
background solar wind is expected until 11 June, when a -CH HSS is
anticipated to become geoeffective.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels during the
past 24h.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on 09
June, quiet to unsettled levels on 10 Jun, and active levels on 11 June
(due to anticipated -CH HSS effects).

27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2026 Jun 08     135          50          7
2026 Jun 09     132          32          6
2026 Jun 10     130          12          3
2026 Jun 11     130          15          3
2026 Jun 12     128          10          3
2026 Jun 13     128           6          2
2026 Jun 14     120           6          2
2026 Jun 15     118           8          3
2026 Jun 16     120           8          3
2026 Jun 17     122           5          2
2026 Jun 18     122           5          2
2026 Jun 19     125           5          2
2026 Jun 20     125           5          2
2026 Jun 21     128           8          3
2026 Jun 22     130           8          3
2026 Jun 23     132          10          4
2026 Jun 24     134          15          4
2026 Jun 25     134          15          4
2026 Jun 26     132          15          4
2026 Jun 27     130          10          3
2026 Jun 28     132           8          3
2026 Jun 29     130           6          2
2026 Jun 30     128           8          3
2026 Jul 01     125           5          2
2026 Jul 02     130           5          2
2026 Jul 03     128          12          3
2026 Jul 04     125           8          3

Save as 'My Presets'

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.
From Date: (YYYY-MM-DD HH:MM). Leave empty for real-time.

Range: (in hours, WARNING 1 hour = ~10KB of data)
Local Time Zone:
Enable Forecast / Timeshift (Recommended) Enable Fixed Y Axis Values Combine Y Series (B*, Proton, Dyn Preasure & Kp). Show Axis Titles Show Graph Legend (Keys) Enable Auto Update (Range will be reduced to 2 hours) Enable Night Vision Red Theme

DATA SOURCES: Learn more
Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.
'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

AF Index (Experemental) AF Community Activity (Hits)
Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

SWPC Kp (Observation)
SWPC Kp (Prediction) GeoSpace Kp (Prediction) Wing Kp (Legacy : Date < 22/06/18)
Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.

Northern Hemisphere (Aurora Borealis) Southern Hemisphere (Aurora Australis)
DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

Mag Bt (Total Strength) Mag Bx (X Axis) Mag By (Y Axis) Mag Bz (Z Axis) Solar Wind Speed Proton Density Dynamic Pressure (Calculated)
ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
Show ACE (When enabled the forecasting / timeshift feature will be disabled)
GOES Satalites: Learn more

GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

Primary Secondary Variation (Pri - Sec)
Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.

Macquarie Island (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Mawson (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Canberra (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Ruru Obseratory (www.ruruobseratory.org.nz / NZ) Aurora Forecast #1 (Hobart) Aurora Forecast #2 (Hobart) Aurora Forecast #3 (Hobart)
User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.

v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)

v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.

v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).

v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.

> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)
Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

DATA SOURCES: Learn more Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

DATA SOURCES: Learn more
Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.