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Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5365
Issue Time: 2026 Jun 13 2356 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 5364
Valid From: 2026 Jun 13 0126 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2026 Jun 14 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK04
Serial Number: 2666
Issue Time: 2026 Jun 13 2101 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2026 Jun 13 2059 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1800-2100
Active Warning: YES

Comment:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 3699
Issue Time: 2026 Jun 13 1333 UTC

ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Threshold Reached: 2026 Jun 13 1332 UTC
Station: GOES-19

Comment:


Solar-terrestrial indices for 13 June follow.
Solar flux 122 and estimated planetary A-index 13.
The estimated planetary K-index at 0300 UTC on 14 June was 2.33.

No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be minor.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are likely.


Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 12 Jun 016
Estimated Ap 13 Jun 020
Predicted Ap 14 Jun-16 Jun 015-012-012

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jun-16 Jun
Active                20/35/35
Minor storm           35/20/20
Moderate storm        20/05/05
Strong-Extreme storm  05/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 14 Jun - 16 Jun
             Jun 14    Jun 15    Jun 16
00-03UT        4.67      2.67      2.67
03-06UT        3.67      3.00      3.67
06-09UT        2.67      3.67      2.67
09-12UT        2.67      3.00      2.67
12-15UT        1.67      2.67      2.67
15-18UT        1.67      1.67      1.67
18-21UT        2.67      1.67      1.67
21-00UT        2.67      2.00      2.67


Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 14-Jun 16 2026 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 14-Jun 16 2026

             Jun 14       Jun 15       Jun 16
00-03UT       4.67 (G1)    2.67         2.67
03-06UT       3.67         3.00         3.67
06-09UT       2.67         3.67         2.67
09-12UT       2.67         3.00         2.67
12-15UT       1.67         2.67         2.67
15-18UT       1.67         1.67         1.67
18-21UT       2.67         1.67         1.67
21-00UT       2.67         2.00         2.67

Rationale: The geomagnetic field is likely to reach G1 (Minor) storm
levels on 14 Jun due to -CH HSS influences and the passage of CMEs that
left the Sun on 09 Jun and 11 Jun.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 14-Jun 16 2026

              Jun 14  Jun 15  Jun 16
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 14-Jun 16 2026

              Jun 14        Jun 15        Jun 16
R1-R2           20%           20%           20%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts on 14-16 Jun.


Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity continued at low levels. All active regions were either
mostly stable or in gradual decay. The strongest flare of the period was
a C2.5/Sf flare at 13/1309 UTC associated with a filament eruption near
the SW limb. Subsequent GOES-19 CCOR-1 coronagraph imagery contained a
CME signature towards the SW beginning at 13/1345 UTC. Analysis and
modeling of the event indicated a miss well ahead of Earth.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to remain at low levels through 16 Jun, with
a slight chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, with a peak
flux of 1,519 pfu. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at
background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue to reach
high levels over 14-16 Jun. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
is expected to continue at background levels through 16 Jun.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected influence from a negative polarity CH
HSS, with a slight enhancement in IMF noted at 13/0952 UTC, which may be
associated with arrival of transient influence anticipated for early to
midday on 13 Jun. Total magnetic field strength increased from a steady
5 nT during the HSS to a peak of 8 nT at 13/0900 UTC. The Bz component
briefly reached as far south as -6 nT. Solar wind speeds increased from
a steady ~550 km/s to a peak of ~674 km/s at 13/1026 UTC, then returned
to near 550 km/s by the end of the period.

.Forecast...
The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced over 14-16 Jun
due to continued -CH HSS influences. Additional enhancements are
possible over 14 Jun with the anticipated passage of CMEs from 09 and 11
Jun, and again on 16 Jun with the likely glancing blow of the CME from
12 Jun.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at mostly quiet to unsettled levels, with an
isolated active period, under -CH HSS and CME influences.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is likely to reach G1 (Minor) storm levels on 14
Jun due to -CH HSS influences and the passage of CMEs that left the Sun
on 09 Jun and 11 Jun. Periods of active conditions are likely on 15-16
Jun as -CH HSS influences persist, with possible weak interactions with
the CME from 12 Jun.


27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2026 Jun 08     135          50          7
2026 Jun 09     132          32          6
2026 Jun 10     130          12          3
2026 Jun 11     130          15          3
2026 Jun 12     128          10          3
2026 Jun 13     128           6          2
2026 Jun 14     120           6          2
2026 Jun 15     118           8          3
2026 Jun 16     120           8          3
2026 Jun 17     122           5          2
2026 Jun 18     122           5          2
2026 Jun 19     125           5          2
2026 Jun 20     125           5          2
2026 Jun 21     128           8          3
2026 Jun 22     130           8          3
2026 Jun 23     132          10          4
2026 Jun 24     134          15          4
2026 Jun 25     134          15          4
2026 Jun 26     132          15          4
2026 Jun 27     130          10          3
2026 Jun 28     132           8          3
2026 Jun 29     130           6          2
2026 Jun 30     128           8          3
2026 Jul 01     125           5          2
2026 Jul 02     130           5          2
2026 Jul 03     128          12          3
2026 Jul 04     125           8          3


  • GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
    It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

  • DATA SOURCES: Learn more
    Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

  • 'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
    These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

    The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

    Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

  • Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
    The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

    Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

  • Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
    The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.
  • DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

    The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

    Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

  • ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

    ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
  • GOES Satalites: Learn more

    GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

  • Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
    Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
    These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
    There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.
  • User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
    If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
    Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

 

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.


v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
 
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
 
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
 
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
 
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)

  Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey