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Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5370
Issue Time: 2026 Jun 25 2343 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 5369
Valid From: 2026 Jun 25 1939 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2026 Jun 26 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK04
Serial Number: 2668
Issue Time: 2026 Jun 25 1941 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2026 Jun 25 1940 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1800-2100
Active Warning: YES

Comment:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5369
Issue Time: 2026 Jun 25 1939 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2026 Jun 25 1939 UTC
Valid To: 2026 Jun 25 2359 UTC
Warning Conditions: Onset

Comment:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.


Solar-terrestrial indices for 25 June follow.
Solar flux 156 and estimated planetary A-index 25.
The estimated planetary K-index at 1200 UTC on 26 June was 1.33.

No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.


Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 24 Jun 015
Estimated Ap 25 Jun 026
Predicted Ap 26 Jun-28 Jun 012-012-015

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jun-28 Jun
Active                35/35/35
Minor storm           25/25/25
Moderate storm        10/10/10
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 26 Jun - 28 Jun
             Jun 26    Jun 27    Jun 28
00-03UT        3.33      3.00      3.33
03-06UT        3.67      3.67      3.67
06-09UT        2.00      2.00      4.00
09-12UT        1.67      2.67      3.00
12-15UT        2.00      2.00      2.00
15-18UT        2.33      2.00      1.67
18-21UT        3.00      2.67      2.67
21-00UT        3.00      3.00      2.67


Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 26-Jun 28 2026 is 4.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 26-Jun 28 2026

             Jun 26       Jun 27       Jun 28
00-03UT       3.00         3.00         3.33
03-06UT       2.33         3.67         3.67
06-09UT       2.00         2.00         4.00
09-12UT       1.67         2.67         3.00
12-15UT       2.00         2.00         2.00
15-18UT       2.33         2.00         1.67
18-21UT       3.00         2.67         2.67
21-00UT       3.00         3.00         2.67

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 26-Jun 28 2026

              Jun 26  Jun 27  Jun 28
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 26-Jun 28 2026

              Jun 26        Jun 27        Jun 28
R1-R2           50%           50%           50%
R3 or greater   10%           10%           10%

Rationale: There is a high chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts 26-28 Jun due primarily to the flare potential of Region 4478.


Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels, with frequent C-level activity in the
SE quadrant of the solar disk. The largest flare of the period was a
C6.6/1N at 25/1503 UTC from Region 4478 (S06E63, Fhc/beta-gamma-delta),
which has rotated far enough onto the disk to mitigate foreshortening
effects, allowing a delta configuration to be observed. While the
majority of the flaring activity this period came from 4478, Region 4475
(S09E01, Eki/beta-gamma) also produced several C-flares as its trailing
and intermediary spots continued to grow and consolidate. Regions 4477
(S13E34, Cri/beta) and 4479 (N16E39, Cro/beta) showed new emergence late
in the period. All other regions on the disk are either largely stable
or in slight decay.

No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to continue at predominately low levels on
26-28 Jun, with a high chance for M-flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) and a
slight chance for X-flares (R3/Strong or greater), primarily due to the
potential of Region 4478.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal
to moderate levels over 26-28 Jun. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
is expected to persist at background levels through 28 Jun.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were elevated this period from negative polarity
coronal hole high speed stream influences. Total magnetic field strength
(Bt) began the reporting period at ~10 nT and slowly decreased to less
than 5 nT by the end of the period, with a variable Bz component that
had several southward deflections between -5 and -10 nT. The solar wind
speed began the period at ~655 km/s and gradually increased to an
average of 700 km/s.  Phi was largely in a negative (towards the Sun)
orientation.

.Forecast...
Solar wind conditions are expected remain elevated/disturbed through 27
Jun due to the continued influence of the negative polarity CH HSS.
Early on 28 Jun, a CME that left the Sun on 22 Jun may arrive at Earth
orbit and disturb the near-Earth environment even further.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was largely at unsettled to active conditions.

.Forecast...
Periods of active conditions are likely on 26-28 Jun due to the negative
polarity CH HSS influences and a potential CME arrival on 28 Jun.


27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2026 Jun 22     120           5          2
2026 Jun 23     120           5          2
2026 Jun 24     120          12          4
2026 Jun 25     125          12          4
2026 Jun 26     130          10          3
2026 Jun 27     130           8          3
2026 Jun 28     130           5          2
2026 Jun 29     132           5          2
2026 Jun 30     135           5          2
2026 Jul 01     145           5          2
2026 Jul 02     138           5          2
2026 Jul 03     140          18          5
2026 Jul 04     135          15          4
2026 Jul 05     130          12          4
2026 Jul 06     130          10          3
2026 Jul 07     130           5          2
2026 Jul 08     125          12          4
2026 Jul 09     126          10          3
2026 Jul 10     120           8          3
2026 Jul 11     122           5          2
2026 Jul 12     118           6          2
2026 Jul 13     116           6          2
2026 Jul 14     115           6          2
2026 Jul 15     120           6          2
2026 Jul 16     125          12          4
2026 Jul 17     125          10          3
2026 Jul 18     122           6          2


  • GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
    It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

  • DATA SOURCES: Learn more
    Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

  • 'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
    These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

    The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

    Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

  • Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
    The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

    Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

  • Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
    The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.
  • DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

    The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

    Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

  • ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

    ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
  • GOES Satalites: Learn more

    GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

  • Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
    Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
    These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
    There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.
  • User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
    If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
    Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

 

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.


v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
 
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
 
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
 
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
 
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)

  Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey