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Weather: TAS
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Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5327
Issue Time: 2026 Apr 25 0137 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2026 Apr 25 0137 UTC
Valid To: 2026 Apr 25 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: WATA20
Serial Number: 1109
Issue Time: 2026 Apr 24 2350 UTC

WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted
Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Apr 25:  G1 (Minor)   Apr 26:  G1 (Minor)   Apr 27:  None (Below G1)
THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

Space Weather Message Code: SUMXM5
Serial Number: 313
Issue Time: 2026 Apr 24 1835 UTC

SUMMARY: X-ray Event exceeded M5
Begin Time: 2026 Apr 24 1754 UTC
Maximum Time: 2026 Apr 24 1815 UTC
End Time: 2026 Apr 24 1830 UTC
X-ray Class: M6.4
Location: N19W90
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered primarily on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth.
Radio - Limited blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for tens of minutes.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTXMF
Serial Number: 525
Issue Time: 2026 Apr 24 1812 UTC

ALERT: X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2026 Apr 24 1812 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap.


Solar-terrestrial indices for 24 April follow.
Solar flux 146 and estimated planetary A-index 9.
The estimated planetary K-index at 1500 UTC on 25 April was 1.33.

Space weather for the past 24 hours has been moderate.
Radio blackouts reaching the R2 level occurred.

Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be moderate.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are likely.
Radio blackouts reaching the R2 level are likely.


Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 23 Apr 007
Estimated Ap 24 Apr 007
Predicted Ap 25 Apr-27 Apr 018-020-010

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Apr-27 Apr
Active                35/35/30
Minor storm           40/40/05
Moderate storm        10/10/01
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 25 Apr - 27 Apr
             Apr 25    Apr 26    Apr 27
00-03UT        3.33      4.67      2.67
03-06UT        3.00      4.33      2.67
06-09UT        2.33      3.67      2.33
09-12UT        2.33      3.00      2.33
12-15UT        2.00      3.00      2.33
15-18UT        2.67      2.33      2.33
18-21UT        4.33      2.67      2.33
21-00UT        4.67      3.00      2.00


Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 25-Apr 27 2026 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 25-Apr 27 2026

             Apr 25       Apr 26       Apr 27
00-03UT       3.33         4.67 (G1)    2.67
03-06UT       1.33         4.33         2.67
06-09UT       1.33         3.67         2.33
09-12UT       0.67         3.00         2.33
12-15UT       2.00         3.00         2.33
15-18UT       2.67         2.33         2.33
18-21UT       4.33         2.67         2.33
21-00UT       4.67 (G1)    3.00         2.00

Rationale: Isolated G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storming
conditions are possible (G1 likely with a chance for G2) late on 25 Apr
into early 26 Apr in response to the arrival of the glancing CMEs.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 25-Apr 27 2026

              Apr 25  Apr 26  Apr 27
S1 or greater   25%     20%     10%

Rationale: There is a chance for levels to exceed S1 (Minor) solar
radiation storm thresholds due to the flare activity of Region 4419 as
it rotates toward the western limb, and Region 4420 as it approaches
central solar meridian. Chances diminish to a slight chance on 26-27
Apr.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Apr 24 2026 1815 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 25-Apr 27 2026

              Apr 25        Apr 26        Apr 27
R1-R2           65%           60%           55%
R3 or greater   35%           25%           20%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a
chance for R3 (Strong or greater) events through 27 Apr, primarily
driven by the complexity of Regions 4419, 4420, 4423, and 4425.


Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at high levels. Regions 4419 (N17W86, Dso/beta-gamma)
and 4423 (S07E22, Dai/beta-delta) were the main contributors to the
flare activity. Region 4419 produced the largest flare of the period, an
M6.4/1f flare at 24/1815 UTC. Region 4423 added the majority of the
flares, including an M1.7/1f flare at 24/1301 UTC, an M1.3/Sf flare at
25/0759 UTC, as well as several C-class flares. Newly numbered Region
4425 (N06E69, Dac/beta-gamma) contributed a couple of C-class flares as
well.

Initial analysis of the CME associated with the M6.4 flare, mentioned
above, indicated most of the ejecta will likely be ahead of and above
Earth. Additional modeling is currently underway. There was no
indication in available coronagraph imagery of a CME associated with the
M1.3 flare that peaked at 25/0759 UTC.

There are seven numbered regions on the visible disk. Analysis of Region
4419 is increasingly difficult due to its proximity to the western limb.
Region 4420 (N17E03, Fki/beta-gamma-delta) exhibited continued growth,
especially in its intermediary spots, and added to its overall length.
Region 4423 (S05E22, Dai/beta-delta) continued to evolve, displaying
continued shearing and rotation in its trailing spots. Region 4424
(N17E37, Dao/beta) noted initial growth early in the period, but has
since stabilized. Region 4425 was also difficult to analyze due to
foreshortening near the east limb. Region 4426 (N12W32, Dso/beta)
developed during the period and was numbered, but was inactive. Region
4421 (S12E02, Hsx/alpha) remained stable and inactive.


.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with M-class flares
(R1-R2-Moderate) likely, and a chance for X-class (R3/Strong or greater)
flares through 27 Apr, primarily driven by the complexity of Regions
4419, 4420, 4423, and 4425.


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels with a peak of 5,740 pfu at 24/1820 UTC. The greater than 10
MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was slightly elevated, but
remained near background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to
high levels through 27 Apr. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to remain at background levels, though there is a chance for
levels to exceed S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm thresholds due to the
flare activity of Region 4419 as it rotates toward the western limb, and
Region 4420 as it approaches central solar meridian. Chances diminish to
a slight chance on 26-27 Apr.


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected near-background conditions. Total field
strength averaged between 3-9 nT for most of the period, the Bz
component varied between +/- 5 nT, and solar wind speeds remained
between 350 and 450 km/s. Phi angle was predominantly negative until
just after 25/0000 UTC when it shifted into a positive orientation.

.Forecast...
Mild enhancements are possible in the solar wind environment on 25 Apr
due to the likely onset of a +CH HSS. Further enhancements are
anticipated on 25-26 Apr with the arrival of the glancing influence from
the 23 Apr CME.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled for
most of 25 Apr, with isolated active periods possible, as the +CH HSS
moves into a geoeffective position. Isolated G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate)
geomagnetic storming conditions are possible late on 25 Apr into early
26 Apr in response to the arrival of the glancing CMEs. Quiet to
unsettled conditions are then anticipated on 27 Apr as CME and +CH HSS
influences subside.


27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2026 Apr 20     105          18          4
2026 Apr 21     110          15          4
2026 Apr 22     120           8          3
2026 Apr 23     125           5          2
2026 Apr 24     120           8          3
2026 Apr 25     115           8          3
2026 Apr 26     120           5          2
2026 Apr 27     125           5          2
2026 Apr 28     125           5          2
2026 Apr 29     125          20          5
2026 Apr 30     125          18          5
2026 May 01     125          12          4
2026 May 02     125          10          4
2026 May 03     115           8          3
2026 May 04     108           8          3
2026 May 05     105           5          2
2026 May 06     100           5          2
2026 May 07      95          20          5
2026 May 08      90          15          4
2026 May 09      90           8          3
2026 May 10      95           5          2
2026 May 11     100           5          2
2026 May 12     105           5          2
2026 May 13     110           5          2
2026 May 14     110           5          2
2026 May 15     105          25          5
2026 May 16     105          20          5


  • GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
    It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

  • DATA SOURCES: Learn more
    Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

  • 'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
    These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

    The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

    Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

  • Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
    The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

    Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

  • Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
    The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.
  • DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

    The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

    Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

  • ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

    ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
  • GOES Satalites: Learn more

    GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

  • Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
    Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
    These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
    There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.
  • User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
    If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
    Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

 

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.


v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
 
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
 
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
 
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
 
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)

  Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast


Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey