Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5177
Issue Time: 2025 Dec 10 0708 UTC
WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2025 Dec 10 0707 UTC
Valid To: 2025 Dec 10 1500 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.
Space Weather Message Code: WATA50
Serial Number: 95
Issue Time: 2025 Dec 09 2103 UTC
CANCEL WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G3 Predicted
Cancel Serial Number: 94
Original Issue Time: 2025 Dec 07 0443 UTC
Comment: Enhancement from anticipated CME did not occur
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices.
Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation - Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.
Solar-terrestrial indices for 09 December follow.
Solar flux 183 and estimated planetary A-index 5.
The estimated planetary K-index at 1800 UTC on 10 December was 2.00.
Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor.
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level occurred.
Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be minor.
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected.
Geo Magnetic Forecast:
NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 08 Dec 002
Estimated Ap 09 Dec 055
Predicted Ap 10 Dec-12 Dec 009-009-014
NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Dec-12 Dec
Active 25/25/40
Minor storm 30/05/20
Moderate storm 30/01/01
Strong-Extreme storm 10/01/01
NOAA Kp index forecast 10 Dec - 12 Dec
Dec 10 Dec 11 Dec 12
00-03UT 2.00 1.00 3.33
03-06UT 2.00 2.00 2.00
06-09UT 3.00 2.33 2.00
09-12UT 2.00 2.33 3.00
12-15UT 2.00 2.33 2.67
15-18UT 2.00 2.33 3.00
18-21UT 3.00 2.33 3.33
21-00UT 1.33 2.67 3.33
Extended Three Day Forecast:
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 10-Dec 12 2025 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 10-Dec 12 2025
Dec 10 Dec 11 Dec 12
00-03UT 2.67 1.00 3.33
03-06UT 2.00 2.00 2.00
06-09UT 3.33 2.33 2.00
09-12UT 2.00 2.33 3.00
12-15UT 2.00 2.33 2.67
15-18UT 2.00 2.33 3.00
18-21UT 3.00 2.33 3.33
21-00UT 4.67 (G1) 2.67 3.33
Rationale: Isolated G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are likely
on 10 Dec, due to passage of a magnetic transient.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Dec 10-Dec 12 2025
Dec 10 Dec 11 Dec 12
S1 or greater 15% 15% 15%
Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar
radiation storms on 10-12 Dec.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Dec 10 2025 0737 UTC.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Dec 10-Dec 12 2025
Dec 10 Dec 11 Dec 12
R1-R2 75% 75% 65%
R3 or greater 15% 15% 15%
Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected on 10-11
Dec and likely on 12 Dec. There is a slight chance of R3 (Strong) or
greater events on 10-12 Dec.
Extended Space Weather Discussion:
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at moderate levels due to multiple low level M-class
flares (R1-Minor), mostly from Region 4294 (S15W69,
Ekc/beta-gamma-delta). The Region 4294 continues to show flux emergence
in its leading spots creating instability and its activity. Region 4304
(N26W36, Cai/beta-gamma) experienced rapid growth and flux emergence,
with the potential to develop a delta spot over the next few days. Newly
numbered Region 4305 (S25E20, Cai/beta-gamma) also continued to grow
rapidly. All other regions were stable or in decay.
There were no Earth-directed CMEs in coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast...
R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) flare activity is expected (75%
chance), with a slight chance (15%) for R3 (Strong) activity.
Probabilities remain elevated due to the large complex of the three
regions in the southwest part of the disk.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit were at
high levels, with a maximum of 1572 pfu at 09/1615 UTC. The greater than
10 MeV proton flux remained at background.
.Forecast...
Without the geoeffective positioning of any coronal hole high speed
stream until 13 Dec, electrons will continue to trend towards moderate
levels through 12 Dec.
Due the growth of Region 4294 and its favorable positioning in the west,
there remains a slight chance (15%) for an S1 (Minor) radiation storming
event.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected a disturbed near-Earth environment
throughout the reporting period. The total interplanetary magnetic field
(Bt) averaged 7 nT until 10/0328 UTC, when a magnetic transient arrived
and pushed it to 13 nT. The north-south (Bz) component was largely south
(negative) for the reporting period, reaching a maximum of -7 nT at
10/0434 UTC. Solar wind speeds showed little reaction to the magnetic
transient, averaging 375 km/s throughout the reporting period. The phi
angle was oriented towards-the-Sun (negative) for the majority of the
reporting period, then slowly rotated around to away-from-the-Sun
(positive) 1.5 hours after the arrival of the transient.
.Forecast...
Solar wind environment is likely to slowly return to nominal levels by
the end of 10 Dec as the transient moves through, with 11 Dec remaining
quiet. Conditions may become elevated on 12 Dec due to a potential weak
impact from a CME that left the Sun on 08 Dec.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels for the first half of the
reporting period, and then was largely unsettled after the arrival of
the transient.
.Forecast...
Isolated periods of G1 (Minor Storming) levels are possible on the later
half of 10 Dec, due to the continued passage of the transient and a weak
but favorable connection with Bz. 11-12 Dec are likely to return to
largely unsettled levels.
27 Day Forecast:
Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2025 Dec 08 190 18 5
2025 Dec 09 190 70 7
2025 Dec 10 185 33 5
2025 Dec 11 175 10 3
2025 Dec 12 155 5 2
2025 Dec 13 140 12 4
2025 Dec 14 130 12 4
2025 Dec 15 130 8 3
2025 Dec 16 135 5 2
2025 Dec 17 135 8 3
2025 Dec 18 140 10 3
2025 Dec 19 140 8 3
2025 Dec 20 140 8 3
2025 Dec 21 140 15 5
2025 Dec 22 140 20 5
2025 Dec 23 145 20 5
2025 Dec 24 160 25 5
2025 Dec 25 170 20 5
2025 Dec 26 180 20 5
2025 Dec 27 180 15 4
2025 Dec 28 180 10 3
2025 Dec 29 175 8 3
2025 Dec 30 180 30 6
2025 Dec 31 180 25 5
2026 Jan 01 175 10 3
2026 Jan 02 170 10 3
2026 Jan 03 170 8 3
v4.16b
v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.
v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)
v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
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Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
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Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
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Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
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DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
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Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)
Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).
Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast