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Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: ALTK04
Serial Number: 2662
Issue Time: 2026 May 29 1952 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2026 May 29 1949 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1800-2100
Active Warning: YES

Comment:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5355
Issue Time: 2026 May 29 1932 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2026 May 29 1932 UTC
Valid To: 2026 May 30 0900 UTC
Warning Conditions: Onset

Comment:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.


Solar-terrestrial indices for 29 May follow.
Solar flux 148 and estimated planetary A-index 15.
The estimated planetary K-index at 0600 UTC on 30 May was 3.00.

Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor.
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level occurred.

No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.


Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 28 May 013
Estimated Ap 29 May 013
Predicted Ap 30 May-01 Jun 010-015-012

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 May-01 Jun
Active                40/40/25
Minor storm           10/10/10
Moderate storm        01/05/01
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 30 May - 01 Jun
             May 30    May 31    Jun 01
00-03UT        2.00      3.00      3.00
03-06UT        2.00      2.33      3.00
06-09UT        4.00      2.33      2.67
09-12UT        2.00      1.67      2.00
12-15UT        2.00      3.33      2.67
15-18UT        3.00      2.67      2.00
18-21UT        1.00      4.00      2.67
21-00UT        2.00      3.67      2.67


Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 30-Jun 01 2026 is 4.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown May 30-Jun 01 2026

             May 30       May 31       Jun 01
00-03UT       2.00         3.00         3.00
03-06UT       2.00         2.33         3.00
06-09UT       4.00         2.33         2.67
09-12UT       2.00         1.67         2.00
12-15UT       2.00         3.33         2.67
15-18UT       3.00         2.67         2.00
18-21UT       1.00         4.00         2.67
21-00UT       2.00         3.67         2.67

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 30-Jun 01 2026

              May 30  May 31  Jun 01
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at May 29 2026 0704 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for May 30-Jun 01 2026

              May 30        May 31        Jun 01
R1-R2           40%           40%           40%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
over 30 May-01 Jun.


Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels with an M1.1/sf at 29/0704 UTC
from Region 4455 (N15E46, Eho/beta-gamma), the strongest of the period.
No significant growth was observed among the spotted regions on the
visible disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available
coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels through 01
Jun. There remains a chance for isolated M-class flares
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate), driven primarily by Regions 4452 and 4455.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at low
to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at
geosynchronous orbit remained at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at low to
moderate levels through 01 Jun. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind parameters suggested very mild negative polarity coronal
hole high-speed stream (-CH HSS) influences. Total magnetic field (Bt)
strength ranged primarily from 4 to 8 nT, and the north-south (Bz)
component continued to be highly variable, with a peak southward
deflection to -8 nT. The phi angle was predominantly in a negative
(towards the Sun) sector. Solar wind speed ranged mainly between 400-450
km/s.

.Forecast...
Mild enhancements due to weak -CH HSS influences are likely to persist
through 30 May. Further enhancements are possible on 30 May due to a CME
that departed the Sun on 26 May. Additional solar wind enhancements are
anticipated on 31 May due to the onset of a new -CH HSS, combined with
possible glancing influences from the slow eruptions that departed the
Sun on 27 and 28 May.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active in response to -CH HSS
influences.

.Forecast...
Geomagnetic field conditions are anticipated to be at quiet to active
levels 30 May due to waning -CH HSS effects and potential glancing CME
influences. Active conditions are again likely on 31 May in response to
the combined onset of the new -CH HSS and glancing CME influences.
Conditions are expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled by 01 Jun.


27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2026 May 25     140           5          2
2026 May 26     145           8          3
2026 May 27     150          12          4
2026 May 28     140          12          4
2026 May 29     140           8          3
2026 May 30     145           5          2
2026 May 31     145           5          2
2026 Jun 01     145           5          2
2026 Jun 02     145           5          2
2026 Jun 03     150           5          2
2026 Jun 04     145          15          4
2026 Jun 05     140           5          2
2026 Jun 06     135           5          2
2026 Jun 07     135           5          2
2026 Jun 08     130           5          2
2026 Jun 09     125          12          4
2026 Jun 10     130           5          2
2026 Jun 11     130          30          6
2026 Jun 12     125          25          5
2026 Jun 13     120          12          4
2026 Jun 14     115          10          3
2026 Jun 15     115           8          3
2026 Jun 16     110           5          2
2026 Jun 17     110           5          2
2026 Jun 18     110           5          2
2026 Jun 19     115           5          2
2026 Jun 20     120           5          2


  • GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
    It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

  • DATA SOURCES: Learn more
    Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

  • 'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
    These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

    The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

    Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

  • Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
    The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

    Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

  • Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
    The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.
  • DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

    The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

    Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

  • ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

    ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
  • GOES Satalites: Learn more

    GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

  • Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
    Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
    These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
    There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.
  • User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
    If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
    Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

 

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.


v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
 
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
 
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
 
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
 
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)

  Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey