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Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 3708
Issue Time: 2026 Jun 30 0459 UTC

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 3707
Begin Time: 2026 Jun 26 1345 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 2637 pfu


Solar-terrestrial indices for 29 June follow.
Solar flux 195 and estimated planetary A-index 3.
The estimated planetary K-index at 0900 UTC on 30 June was 0.67.

Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor.
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level occurred.

Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be moderate.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are likely.
Radio blackouts reaching the R2 level are likely.


Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 28 Jun 005
Estimated Ap 29 Jun 009
Predicted Ap 30 Jun-02 Jul 025-012-012

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jun-02 Jul
Active                39/35/35
Minor storm           35/25/25
Moderate storm        25/15/15
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 30 Jun - 02 Jul
             Jun 30    Jul 01    Jul 02
00-03UT        3.00      2.00      3.33
03-06UT        5.00      1.67      4.00
06-09UT        4.67      1.67      3.00
09-12UT        4.00      1.67      2.67
12-15UT        3.67      2.00      2.00
15-18UT        3.33      2.33      2.00
18-21UT        3.00      3.67      2.00
21-00UT        2.67      4.33      1.67


Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 30-Jul 02 2026 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 30-Jul 02 2026

             Jun 30       Jul 01       Jul 02
00-03UT       3.00         2.00         3.33
03-06UT       5.00 (G1)    1.67         4.00
06-09UT       4.67 (G1)    1.67         3.00
09-12UT       4.00         1.67         2.67
12-15UT       3.67         2.00         2.00
15-18UT       3.33         2.33         2.00
18-21UT       3.00         3.67         2.00
21-00UT       2.67         4.33         1.67

Rationale: G1 (Minor) storm conditions are likely 30 Jun with the
anticipated arrival of the 26 Jun CME.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 30-Jul 02 2026

              Jun 30  Jul 01  Jul 02
S1 or greater    5%      5%     10%

Rationale: The probability for S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation
storms increases beginning 02 Jul as Regions 4478  and 4479 continue to
develop and move westward into a more favorable position to connect with
Earth.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Jun 29 2026 2140 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 30-Jul 02 2026

              Jun 30        Jul 01        Jul 02
R1-R2           60%           60%           60%
R3 or greater   10%           10%           10%

Rationale: Isolated R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely
with a slight chance for R3 (Strong) or greater events primarily due to
the potential of Regions 4478 and 4479.


Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels alongside frequent C-class
flares. Region 4475 (S09W49, Dai/beta-gamma-delta) experienced
additional spot growth in its trailing spots and maintained gamma and
delta signatures in its intermediate area. This resulted in a C6.1/1F
flare at 29/1740 UTC and other lower level C-class flares. Region 4478
(S05E08, Fko/beta-gamma-delta) underwent consolidation in its leading
spot group while continuing to decay in its intermediate area and was
responsible for a C4.1 flare at 29/0340 UTC. Region 4479 (N16W10,
Eki/beta-gamma-delta) exhibited rapid flux emergence over the period and
a strengthened mixed polarity configuration in its intermediate area
resulting in a M1.4 flare at 29/2140 UTC, which the largest event of the
period.

Other notable activity related to Region 4479 included a C3.5 flare at
29/1730 UTC. USAF SOON resources reported a disappearing solar filament
associated with this event that was centered near N13W05 at
approximately 29/1737 UTC. However, no resulting CME has been observed
in available coronagraph imagery as of the time of this writing.

.Forecast...
Solar activity will likely reach moderate levels through day three (02
July) with isolated M-class flare activity (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate Radio
Blackouts) given the flare potential and history of Regions 4475, 4478
and 4479.

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a maximum
flux of 2,890 pfu observed at 29/1425 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux remained at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to return to normal to
moderate levels on 30 Jun with the arrival of a CME that left the Sun on
26 Jun and then remain at normal to moderate levels through 02 Jul.
There is a chance that the 2 MeV electron flux could remain at high
levels for a majority of 30 Jun depending on CME arrival timing.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background
levels through 01 Jul. Probabilities of an S1 (Minor) or greater event
increase to a slight risk on 02 Jul as Regions 4478 and 4479 rotate into
a more prevalent position for connection with Earth.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters returned to an ambient-like state. Total field
averaged 3-4 nT while the Bz component remained at or near neutral.
Solar wind speeds gradually decreased from approximately 430 km/s to 330
km/s by the end of the period. Phi was predominantly in a negative solar
sector.

.Forecast...
A disturbed solar wind environment due to CME passage from events that
left the Sun on 26 and 27 Jun is anticipated for 30 Jun and 01 July.
These enhancements are then expected to wane over the course of 02 July.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels.

.Forecast...
G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely, with a chance for isolated
periods reaching G2 (Moderate) levels, on 30 Jun with the arrival of a
CME that left the Sun on 27 Jun. Unsettled to active conditions are then
expected during the latter half of 01 Jul with arrival of a second CME
that left the Sun on 27 Jun, but confidence is lower given the nature of
this event. Any lingering unsettled to active conditions are expected to
linger into the early portions of 02 Jul before mostly quiet conditions
prevail.


27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2026 Jun 29     175          10          5
2026 Jun 30     180          25          5
2026 Jul 01     175          12          4
2026 Jul 02     170           8          3
2026 Jul 03     175           5          2
2026 Jul 04     170           5          2
2026 Jul 05     160           5          2
2026 Jul 06     160           5          2
2026 Jul 07     155           5          2
2026 Jul 08     155          12          4
2026 Jul 09     150          12          4
2026 Jul 10     140           8          3
2026 Jul 11     140           5          2
2026 Jul 12     135           5          2
2026 Jul 13     130           5          2
2026 Jul 14     135           5          2
2026 Jul 15     140           5          2
2026 Jul 16     140          10          3
2026 Jul 17     145           8          3
2026 Jul 18     150           5          2
2026 Jul 19     145           5          2
2026 Jul 20     145           5          2
2026 Jul 21     145           5          2
2026 Jul 22     150          15          5
2026 Jul 23     155          12          4
2026 Jul 24     155           8          3
2026 Jul 25     155           8          3


  • GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
    It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

  • DATA SOURCES: Learn more
    Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

  • 'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
    These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

    The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

    Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

  • Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
    The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

    Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

  • Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
    The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.
  • DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

    The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

    Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

  • ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

    ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
  • GOES Satalites: Learn more

    GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

  • Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
    Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
    These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
    There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.
  • User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
    If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
    Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

 

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.


v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
 
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
 
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
 
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
 
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)

  Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast


Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey