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27 Day

Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 3705
Issue Time: 2026 Jun 27 0713 UTC

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 3704
Begin Time: 2026 Jun 26 1345 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 1636 pfu

Solar-terrestrial indices for 27 June follow.
Solar flux 188 and estimated planetary A-index 7.
The estimated planetary K-index at 0300 UTC on 28 June was 2.00.

No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.

Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 26 Jun 011
Estimated Ap 27 Jun 009
Predicted Ap 28 Jun-30 Jun 015-005-020

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jun-30 Jun
Active                35/10/40
Minor storm           25/01/30
Moderate storm        10/01/10
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 28 Jun - 30 Jun
             Jun 28    Jun 29    Jun 30
00-03UT        3.33      1.67      1.67
03-06UT        3.67      1.33      3.00
06-09UT        4.00      1.33      4.00
09-12UT        3.00      1.33      4.33
12-15UT        2.00      1.33      4.33
15-18UT        1.67      1.33      3.67
18-21UT        2.67      1.67      3.33
21-00UT        2.67      1.67      1.67

Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 28-Jun 30 2026 is 4.33 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 28-Jun 30 2026

             Jun 28       Jun 29       Jun 30
00-03UT       3.00         1.67         1.67
03-06UT       3.67         1.33         3.00
06-09UT       3.67         1.33         4.00
09-12UT       3.00         1.33         4.33
12-15UT       2.00         1.33         4.33
15-18UT       1.67         1.33         3.67
18-21UT       2.67         1.67         3.33
21-00UT       2.67         1.67         1.67

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 28-Jun 30 2026

              Jun 28  Jun 29  Jun 30
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 28-Jun 30 2026

              Jun 28        Jun 29        Jun 30
R1-R2           50%           50%           50%
R3 or greater   10%           10%           10%

Rationale: A high chance for R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts due
to M-class flare activity will presist through 30 Jun primarily due to
the flare potential presently observed in Regions 4475 and 4478.

Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels with numerous C-class flares from
Regions 4473 (S07, L=144), 4475 (S10W19, Dai/beta-gamma), 4478 (S06E33,
Fkc/beta-gamma-delta), and 4479 (N15E16, Dai/beta). Region 4478
continued to develop intermediate spots, observed overall growth, and
maintained a weak delta configuration. This region was responsible for
several C-class flares. Despite an overall decaying trend, Region 4475
added multiple C-class flares during the period as well to include a
long duration, double peak C7.4 event at 27/2102 UTC and 27/2111 UTC.
Regions 4477 (S15E13, Bxo/beta) and 4479 also exhibited development
during the period, yet both remained mostly quiet. Region 4476 (N08W44,
Axx/alpha) continued to decay and was inactive. New Region 4480 (S18E07,
Dao/beta developed just to the SW of Region 4477.

No new Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph
imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to continue at predominately low levels on
27-29 Jun, with a chance for M-flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) and a
slight chance for X-flares (R3/Strong or greater), primarily due to the
potential of Regions 4475 and 4478.

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels and reached a
maximum flux of 3,792 pfu at 27/1525 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton
flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain elevated to
moderate to high levels over 28-30 Jun. The greater than 10 MeV proton
flux is expected to persist at background levels through 30 Jun.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were still slightly elevated this period as
negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream influences weakened.
Total magnetic field strength averaged between 2-4 nT. The Bz component
rotated between +/-3 nT through the period. Solar wind speed was near
675 km/s beginning in the period before slowly decreasing to ~525 km/s
by the end of the period. Phi was mostly in a negative (towards the Sun)
orientation.

.Forecast...
Solar wind conditions are expected reflect the continued weakening of
the negative polarity CH HSS through 28 Jun. Early on 28 Jun, a CME that
left the Sun on 22 Jun is anticipated to arrive at Earth, providing
additional enhancements to the near-Earth environment. A gradual return
to a more normal background state is expected on 29 Jun. Enhanced
conditions are expected to return early to mid on 30 Jun due to the CME
that left the Sun late on 26 Jun.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled conditions.

.Forecast...
Periods of active conditions are likely on 28 Jun due to the negative
polarity CH HSS influences and a potential CME arrival. Mostly quiet
conditions are expected on 29 Jun. Active to isolated minor storm
(R1-Minor) conditions are expected on 30 Jun due to a potential CME
arrival.

27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2026 Jun 22     120           5          2
2026 Jun 23     120           5          2
2026 Jun 24     120          12          4
2026 Jun 25     125          12          4
2026 Jun 26     130          10          3
2026 Jun 27     130           8          3
2026 Jun 28     130           5          2
2026 Jun 29     132           5          2
2026 Jun 30     135           5          2
2026 Jul 01     145           5          2
2026 Jul 02     138           5          2
2026 Jul 03     140          18          5
2026 Jul 04     135          15          4
2026 Jul 05     130          12          4
2026 Jul 06     130          10          3
2026 Jul 07     130           5          2
2026 Jul 08     125          12          4
2026 Jul 09     126          10          3
2026 Jul 10     120           8          3
2026 Jul 11     122           5          2
2026 Jul 12     118           6          2
2026 Jul 13     116           6          2
2026 Jul 14     115           6          2
2026 Jul 15     120           6          2
2026 Jul 16     125          12          4
2026 Jul 17     125          10          3
2026 Jul 18     122           6          2

Save as 'My Presets'

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.
From Date: (YYYY-MM-DD HH:MM). Leave empty for real-time.

Range: (in hours, WARNING 1 hour = ~10KB of data)
Local Time Zone:
Enable Forecast / Timeshift (Recommended) Enable Fixed Y Axis Values Combine Y Series (B*, Proton, Dyn Preasure & Kp). Show Axis Titles Show Graph Legend (Keys) Enable Auto Update (Range will be reduced to 2 hours) Enable Night Vision Red Theme

DATA SOURCES: Learn more
Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.
'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

AF Index (Experemental) AF Community Activity (Hits)
Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

SWPC Kp (Observation)
SWPC Kp (Prediction) GeoSpace Kp (Prediction) Wing Kp (Legacy : Date < 22/06/18)
Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.

Northern Hemisphere (Aurora Borealis) Southern Hemisphere (Aurora Australis)
DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

Mag Bt (Total Strength) Mag Bx (X Axis) Mag By (Y Axis) Mag Bz (Z Axis) Solar Wind Speed Proton Density Dynamic Pressure (Calculated)
ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
Show ACE (When enabled the forecasting / timeshift feature will be disabled)
GOES Satalites: Learn more

GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

Primary Secondary Variation (Pri - Sec)
Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.

Macquarie Island (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Mawson (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Canberra (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Ruru Obseratory (www.ruruobseratory.org.nz / NZ) Aurora Forecast #1 (Hobart) Aurora Forecast #2 (Hobart) Aurora Forecast #3 (Hobart)
User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.

v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)

v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.

v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).

v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.

> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)
Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

DATA SOURCES: Learn more Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

DATA SOURCES: Learn more
Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.