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Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5302
Issue Time: 2026 Mar 28 0218 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2026 Mar 28 0218 UTC
Valid To: 2026 Mar 28 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.


Solar-terrestrial indices for 27 March follow.
Solar flux 156 and estimated planetary A-index 6.
The estimated planetary K-index at 0600 UTC on 28 March was 2.00.

Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor.
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level occurred.

Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be minor.
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level are likely.


Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 26 Mar 010
Estimated Ap 27 Mar 007
Predicted Ap 28 Mar-30 Mar 005-008-015

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Mar-30 Mar
Active                15/25/35
Minor storm           01/05/25
Moderate storm        01/01/05
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 28 Mar - 30 Mar
             Mar 28    Mar 29    Mar 30
00-03UT        1.67      2.33      3.67
03-06UT        2.00      1.67      4.00
06-09UT        1.33      1.00      3.00
09-12UT        0.67      0.67      2.33
12-15UT        1.33      1.67      2.00
15-18UT        1.33      2.33      2.33
18-21UT        1.67      2.67      3.00
21-00UT        1.67      3.00      3.00


Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 28-Mar 30 2026 is 4.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 28-Mar 30 2026

             Mar 28       Mar 29       Mar 30
00-03UT       1.67         2.33         3.67
03-06UT       2.00         1.67         4.00
06-09UT       1.33         1.00         3.00
09-12UT       0.67         0.67         2.33
12-15UT       1.33         1.67         2.00
15-18UT       1.33         2.33         2.33
18-21UT       1.67         2.67         3.00
21-00UT       1.67         3.00         3.00

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 28-Mar 30 2026

              Mar 28  Mar 29  Mar 30
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 28-Mar 30 2026

              Mar 28        Mar 29        Mar 30
R1-R2           45%           45%           40%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
over 28-30 Mar.


Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. Region 4401 (N25W02, Ekc/beta-gamma)
exhibited signs of evolution as it gained maturing penumbra in its
intermediate area while maintaining a mixed polarity configuration.
Newly numbered Region 4405 (S25E66, Eho/beta) was the main culprit for
C-class flare activity during the period producing a C5.4 flare at
27/1002 UTC, which was the largest of the period. A CME originating from
the vicinity of AR 4405 was observed in LASCO C2 imagery near the
beginning of the 27 Mar UTC-day. This event was modeled and determined
to be a miss well behind Earths orbit. Additional activity included a
potentially disappearing filament centered near S28E23, but it is
unclear as of the time of this writing if it resulted in an eruption. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares through 30 Mar.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 12,784 pfu. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at
background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue to reach
high levels through 30 Mar. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected a return to an ambient-like environment.
Solar wind speed reached a peak near 477 km/s before decreasing to near
400 km/s. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 27/0200Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 27/2058Z. Phi was predominantly
negative.

.Forecast...
Near background conditions are expected to persist through 28 Mar.
Enhancements from recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS influences are
anticipated to begin by late 29 Mar and persist through 30 Mar.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

.Forecast...
Primarily quiet levels are expected to persist through 28 Mar. Quiet
conditions are then expected to give way to unsettled to active levels
by late on 29 Mar and continue into 30 Mar due to positive polarity CH
HSS effects.


27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2026 Mar 23     120          34          6
2026 Mar 24     120          14          3
2026 Mar 25     122          12          3
2026 Mar 26     125          12          3
2026 Mar 27     130           8          3
2026 Mar 28     130           5          2
2026 Mar 29     128           8          3
2026 Mar 30     125          15          4
2026 Mar 31     125          10          3
2026 Apr 01     130           5          2
2026 Apr 02     120           5          2
2026 Apr 03     120          18          5
2026 Apr 04     115          24          5
2026 Apr 05     110          10          3
2026 Apr 06     120          15          4
2026 Apr 07     120           8          3
2026 Apr 08     118           7          2
2026 Apr 09     120          25          5
2026 Apr 10     110          40          6
2026 Apr 11     112          20          5
2026 Apr 12     115          12          3
2026 Apr 13     115           8          3
2026 Apr 14     110           7          2
2026 Apr 15     115           5          2
2026 Apr 16     115           4          2
2026 Apr 17     120           7          2
2026 Apr 18     122          48          6


  • GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
    It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

  • DATA SOURCES: Learn more
    Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

  • 'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
    These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

    The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

    Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

  • Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
    The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

    Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

  • Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
    The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.
  • DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

    The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

    Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

  • ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

    ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
  • GOES Satalites: Learn more

    GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

  • Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
    Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
    These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
    There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.
  • User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
    If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
    Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

 

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.


v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
 
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
 
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
 
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
 
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)

  Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey