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Weather: TAS
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Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: ALTK04
Serial Number: 2663
Issue Time: 2026 May 30 2036 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2026 May 30 2035 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1800-2100
Active Warning: YES

Comment:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5356
Issue Time: 2026 May 30 1852 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2026 May 30 1851 UTC
Valid To: 2026 May 31 0600 UTC
Warning Conditions: Onset

Comment:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.


Solar-terrestrial indices for 30 May follow.
Solar flux 142 and estimated planetary A-index 15.
The estimated planetary K-index at 0900 UTC on 31 May was 2.00.

No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.


Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 29 May 015
Estimated Ap 30 May 012
Predicted Ap 31 May-02 Jun 016-012-006

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 May-02 Jun
Active                40/40/20
Minor storm           15/10/01
Moderate storm        05/01/01
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 31 May - 02 Jun
             May 31    Jun 01    Jun 02
00-03UT        4.00      3.67      2.33
03-06UT        3.00      3.00      2.00
06-09UT        2.33      2.67      1.67
09-12UT        1.67      2.00      1.33
12-15UT        2.33      2.67      1.00
15-18UT        2.67      2.00      1.67
18-21UT        4.00      2.67      1.67
21-00UT        3.67      2.67      2.00


Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 31-Jun 02 2026 is 4.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown May 31-Jun 02 2026

             May 31       Jun 01       Jun 02
00-03UT       4.00         3.67         2.33
03-06UT       3.00         3.00         2.00
06-09UT       2.33         2.67         1.67
09-12UT       1.67         2.00         1.33
12-15UT       2.33         2.67         1.00
15-18UT       2.67         2.00         1.67
18-21UT       4.00         2.67         1.67
21-00UT       3.67         2.67         2.00

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 31-Jun 02 2026

              May 31  Jun 01  Jun 02
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for May 31-Jun 02 2026

              May 31        Jun 01        Jun 02
R1-R2           40%           40%           40%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
over 31 May-02 Jun.


Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at low levels with C-class flare activity.
Region 4446 (S15W21, Cho/beta) produced a C4.8 flare at 30/1153 UTC,
which was the largest event of the period. Region 4452 (N10W61,
Dai/beta-gamma) exhibited decay primarily in its leading spots, but
managed to maintain a mixed polarity magnetic configuration. Region 4455
(Dho/beta) gained additional spots, but lacked any significant flare
activity. Region 4457 (S10W00, Cro/beta) rapidly emerged and was
subsequently numbered. The remaining active regions remained relatively
stable and quiet.

The halo CME, first observed by GOES CCOR-1 at approximately 30/0915
UTC, was assessed to have originated from the far side of the Sun. A
faint and narrow CME associated with the aforementioned C4.8 flare event
is undergoing modeling efforts as of the time of this writing. Any
impacts to Earth are anticipated to be negligible.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels through 02
Jun with a chance for isolated M-class flare activity.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at low
to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at
geosynchronous orbit remained at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at low to
moderate levels through 31 May with a chance for high levels on 01 and
02 Jun. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at
background levels through 02 Jun.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected negative polarity CH HSS influences.
Total field increased to 10-11 nT. The Bz component of the IMF underwent
a few sustained southward deflections reaching -7 to -10 nT. Solar wind
speeds increased from just below 400 km/s to near 550 km/s by the end of
the period.

.Forecast...
Negative polarity CH HSS influences are expected to continue through 01
Jun with possible glancing influences from the slow eruptions that
departed the Sun on 27 and 28 May. Ambient-like conditions are expected
to return by the close of 02 Jun.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels in response to
negative polarity CH HSS influences.

.Forecast...
Unsettled to active conditions, with a chance for isolated G1 (Minor)
levels, are expected on 31 May due to negative polarity CH HSS effects.
Chances for isolated G1 (Minor) storm periods increase on 31 May with
any glancing influences from the aforementioned 27-28 May CMEs. Quiet to
active levels are expected to continue into the early to mid portions of
01 Jun as negative polarity CH HSS effects wane with mostly quiet
conditions prevailing on 02 Jun.


27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2026 May 25     140           5          2
2026 May 26     145           8          3
2026 May 27     150          12          4
2026 May 28     140          12          4
2026 May 29     140           8          3
2026 May 30     145           5          2
2026 May 31     145           5          2
2026 Jun 01     145           5          2
2026 Jun 02     145           5          2
2026 Jun 03     150           5          2
2026 Jun 04     145          15          4
2026 Jun 05     140           5          2
2026 Jun 06     135           5          2
2026 Jun 07     135           5          2
2026 Jun 08     130           5          2
2026 Jun 09     125          12          4
2026 Jun 10     130           5          2
2026 Jun 11     130          30          6
2026 Jun 12     125          25          5
2026 Jun 13     120          12          4
2026 Jun 14     115          10          3
2026 Jun 15     115           8          3
2026 Jun 16     110           5          2
2026 Jun 17     110           5          2
2026 Jun 18     110           5          2
2026 Jun 19     115           5          2
2026 Jun 20     120           5          2


  • GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
    It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

  • DATA SOURCES: Learn more
    Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

  • 'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
    These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

    The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

    Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

  • Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
    The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

    Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

  • Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
    The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.
  • DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

    The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

    Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

  • ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

    ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
  • GOES Satalites: Learn more

    GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

  • Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
    Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
    These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
    There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.
  • User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
    If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
    Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

 

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.


v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
 
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
 
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
 
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
 
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)

  Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey