Aurora Forecast

Chart
Reports
Options
More...

Alerts
Geo Mag
3 Day
Discussion
27 Day

Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 1489
Issue Time: 2026 May 24 1211 UTC

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2026 May 24 0850 UTC
Estimate Velocity: 579 km/s

Comment:

Solar-terrestrial indices for 24 May follow.
Solar flux 133 and estimated planetary A-index 6.
The estimated planetary K-index at 0000 UTC on 25 May was 2.00.

No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.

Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 23 May 003
Estimated Ap 24 May 005
Predicted Ap 25 May-27 May 005-008-012

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 May-27 May
Active                10/15/35
Minor storm           05/10/10
Moderate storm        01/05/05
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 25 May - 27 May
             May 25    May 26    May 27
00-03UT        1.67      1.33      2.67
03-06UT        1.33      2.00      2.00
06-09UT        1.33      2.33      2.00
09-12UT        1.33      2.00      2.67
12-15UT        1.67      2.00      2.67
15-18UT        1.33      2.00      2.67
18-21UT        1.67      2.00      3.00
21-00UT        1.33      3.00      3.00

Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 25-May 27 2026 is 3.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown May 25-May 27 2026

             May 25       May 26       May 27
00-03UT       1.67         1.33         2.67
03-06UT       1.33         2.00         3.67
06-09UT       1.33         2.33         3.00
09-12UT       1.33         2.00         2.67
12-15UT       1.67         2.00         2.33
15-18UT       1.33         2.00         2.00
18-21UT       1.67         2.00         2.33
21-00UT       1.33         3.00         2.67

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-19 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 25-May 27 2026

              May 25  May 26  May 27
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for May 25-May 27 2026

              May 25        May 26        May 27
R1-R2           35%           35%           35%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: Solar activity is expected to remain at low levels, with a
chance for isolated M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) on 25-27 May,
primarily due to the flare potential of Region 4441 and Region 4446.

Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at low levels. The majority of the C-class
activity originated from Region 4446 (S13E59, Dko/beta) as it rotated
further into view. The strongest flare was a C4.7 flare that peaked at
23/2359 UTC, with activity steadily declining throughout the rest of the
period. There was a stray Type II radio sweep (est. 579 km/s) at 24/0850
UTC that was likely from a far-sided event. The CME signatures
identified in available coronagraph imagery were associated with
activity on or behind the Suns limb. No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed in available satellite imagery.

Newly numbered Region 4447 (S17E23, Dao/beta) was a separation of the
northern spots from Region 4444 (S21E29, Hsx/alpha). Little change was
observed in the other numbered regions.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to remain at low levels, with a chance for
isolated M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) on 25-27 May, primarily
due to the flare potential of Region 4441 and Region 4446.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at
moderate to high levels, reaching a peak level of 5,512 pfu at 24/1845
UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit
remained at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at moderate
to high levels on 25-27 May. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to remain at background levels through 27 May.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were indicative of near-background conditions.
Wind speeds ranged from 270-356 km/s. Total magnetic field strength
varied from 1-6 nT, Bz ranged between +/-5 nT, and the phi angle was
predominantly in a negative orientation. The only enhancement in the
solar wind parameters was an increase in density, rising from around 1
ppcm/3 to around 12 ppcm/3.

.Forecast...
Primarily ambient conditions are expected for 25 May under a continued
background solar wind regime. Late on 26 May and into 27 May,
enhancements to the solar wind environment are possible with the
anticipated onset of a negative polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

.Forecast...
Mostly quiet levels are anticipated on 25 May as a near-background
solar regime persists. Periods of unsettled conditions are possible,
with a chance for an isolated active periods, late on 26 May lasting
into 27 May, with the likely onset of an approaching -CH HSS.

27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2026 May 18     105          21          5
2026 May 19     110          21          5
2026 May 20     115           8          3
2026 May 21     115          10          3
2026 May 22     110           8          3
2026 May 23     112           5          2
2026 May 24     112           5          2
2026 May 25     115           5          2
2026 May 26     115           5          2
2026 May 27     115          12          4
2026 May 28     120          10          3
2026 May 29     125           8          3
2026 May 30     130           8          3
2026 May 31     135           8          3
2026 Jun 01     130           5          2
2026 Jun 02     130           5          2
2026 Jun 03     130           5          2
2026 Jun 04     125          12          4
2026 Jun 05     120           5          2
2026 Jun 06     115           5          2
2026 Jun 07     110           5          2
2026 Jun 08     105           5          2
2026 Jun 09     105          10          3
2026 Jun 10     100           5          2
2026 Jun 11      95          30          6
2026 Jun 12      95          25          5
2026 Jun 13      95          12          4

Save as 'My Presets'

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.
From Date: (YYYY-MM-DD HH:MM). Leave empty for real-time.

Range: (in hours, WARNING 1 hour = ~10KB of data)
Local Time Zone:
Enable Forecast / Timeshift (Recommended) Enable Fixed Y Axis Values Combine Y Series (B*, Proton, Dyn Preasure & Kp). Show Axis Titles Show Graph Legend (Keys) Enable Auto Update (Range will be reduced to 2 hours) Enable Night Vision Red Theme

DATA SOURCES: Learn more
Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.
'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

AF Index (Experemental) AF Community Activity (Hits)
Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

SWPC Kp (Observation)
SWPC Kp (Prediction) GeoSpace Kp (Prediction) Wing Kp (Legacy : Date < 22/06/18)
Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.

Northern Hemisphere (Aurora Borealis) Southern Hemisphere (Aurora Australis)
DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

Mag Bt (Total Strength) Mag Bx (X Axis) Mag By (Y Axis) Mag Bz (Z Axis) Solar Wind Speed Proton Density Dynamic Pressure (Calculated)
ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
Show ACE (When enabled the forecasting / timeshift feature will be disabled)
GOES Satalites: Learn more

GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

Primary Secondary Variation (Pri - Sec)
Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.

Macquarie Island (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Mawson (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Canberra (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Ruru Obseratory (www.ruruobseratory.org.nz / NZ) Aurora Forecast #1 (Hobart) Aurora Forecast #2 (Hobart) Aurora Forecast #3 (Hobart)
User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.

v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)

v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.

v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).

v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.

> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)
Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

DATA SOURCES: Learn more Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

DATA SOURCES: Learn more
Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.