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Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: WATA20
Serial Number: 1091
Issue Time: 2026 Jan 26 0906 UTC

WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted
Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Jan 27:  None (Below G1)   Jan 28:  G1 (Minor)   Jan 29:  None (Below G1)
THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT

Comment: Negative polarity CH influences will likely lead to isolated G1 (Minor) geomanetic storming periods on 28 Jan.
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 3611
Issue Time: 2026 Jan 26 0501 UTC

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 3610
Begin Time: 2026 Jan 21 0950 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 6155 pfu
Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.


Solar-terrestrial indices for 25 January follow.
Solar flux 165 and estimated planetary A-index 15.
The estimated planetary K-index at 1800 UTC on 26 January was 2.33.

No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.


Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 24 Jan 017
Estimated Ap 25 Jan 017
Predicted Ap 26 Jan-28 Jan 008-008-024

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jan-28 Jan
Active                25/25/35
Minor storm           10/10/35
Moderate storm        01/01/15
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/05

NOAA Kp index forecast 26 Jan - 28 Jan
             Jan 26    Jan 27    Jan 28
00-03UT        3.67      2.00      4.00
03-06UT        2.67      1.67      4.67
06-09UT        2.00      2.00      3.33
09-12UT        2.00      1.67      3.00
12-15UT        1.33      1.67      3.33
15-18UT        1.33      2.00      3.67
18-21UT        1.00      2.33      4.00
21-00UT        1.33      3.33      4.00


Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 26-Jan 28 2026 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 26-Jan 28 2026

             Jan 26       Jan 27       Jan 28
00-03UT       2.33         2.00         4.00
03-06UT       1.00         1.67         4.67 (G1)
06-09UT       2.00         2.00         3.33
09-12UT       2.33         1.67         3.00
12-15UT       1.33         1.67         3.33
15-18UT       1.67         2.00         3.67
18-21UT       2.00         2.33         4.00
21-00UT       2.67         3.33         4.00

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely on 28 Jan due to
negative polarity CH HSS effects.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 26-Jan 28 2026

              Jan 26  Jan 27  Jan 28
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 26-Jan 28 2026

              Jan 26        Jan 27        Jan 28
R1-R2           40%           35%           35%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: A chance for R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts due to
isolated M-class flares will persist through 28 Jan. Probabilities
decrease slightly after day 1 as active regions rotate off of the
visible disk.


Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. Region 4342 (N16W78, Dso/beta)
produced a C7.9 flare that peaked at 25/2143 UTC, which was the largest
of the period. CMEs associated with this event were first observed in
LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery beginning at approximately 25/2012 UTC.
However, these CMEs are not expected to have an Earth-directed component
given their source location on the western limb. New simple spots were
observed near N17E12, but remain unnumbered at this time given a lack of
substantial growth or activity in their few hours of existence. The
remaining numbered active regions were relatively stable and quiet, or
were in decay.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares
(R1/R2, Minor/Moderate) through 28 Jan.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak
flux of 6,154 pfu observed at 25/1640 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux was below the S1 (Minor) threshold.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at high
levels on 26 Jan before decreasing to normal to moderate levels on 27
Jan. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at
background levels through 28 Jan.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected weakening positive polarity CH HSS
influence and a possible weak transient disturbance late in the period.
Total field primarily ranged 4-6 nT, but underwent an increase to 7-8 nT
beginning around 26/0542 UTC. The Bz component of the IMF was mostly
near neutral or northward with only a few weak southward deflections.
Solar wind speeds exhibited an overall decreasing trend ending the
period near 500 km/s. Phi was predominantly positive with a few brief
excursions into the negative solar sector.

.Forecast...
Positive polarity CH HSS influencesare expected to gradually diminish
over 26 Jan into the first half of 27 Jan. The latter half of 27 Jan
should bring negative polarity CH HSS influences and enhancements into
the solar wind environment, which will then continue through 28 Jan.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.

.Forecast...
Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected to give way to
mostly quiet levels by early on 27 Jan. Unsettled conditions are then
possible again by late on 27 Jan due to an anticipated solar sector
boundary crossing. Isolated G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming periods are
likely on 28 Jan with the onset of negative polarity CH HSS effects.


27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2026 Jan 26     160           8          3
2026 Jan 27     150           8          3
2026 Jan 28     145          24          5
2026 Jan 29     135          18          4
2026 Jan 30     130          10          3
2026 Jan 31     120           8          3
2026 Feb 01     120           5          2
2026 Feb 02     130           5          2
2026 Feb 03     140           5          2
2026 Feb 04     140          15          4
2026 Feb 05     130          12          4
2026 Feb 06     120          10          3
2026 Feb 07     125           8          3
2026 Feb 08     130           8          3
2026 Feb 09     135          10          3
2026 Feb 10     140           8          3
2026 Feb 11     135           8          3
2026 Feb 12     140           5          2
2026 Feb 13     145          20          5
2026 Feb 14     145          15          4
2026 Feb 15     155          15          4
2026 Feb 16     160          15          4
2026 Feb 17     170          15          4
2026 Feb 18     180          15          4
2026 Feb 19     175          15          4
2026 Feb 20     170          15          4
2026 Feb 21     160          15          4


  • GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
    It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

  • DATA SOURCES: Learn more
    Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

  • 'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
    These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

    The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

    Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

  • Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
    The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

    Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

  • Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
    The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.
  • DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

    The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

    Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

  • ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

    ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
  • GOES Satalites: Learn more

    GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

  • Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
    Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
    These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
    There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.
  • User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
    If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
    Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

 

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.


v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
 
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
 
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
 
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
 
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)

  Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey