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Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5377
Issue Time: 2026 Jul 04 1421 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 5376
Valid From: 2026 Jul 03 1209 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2026 Jul 05 0300 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK05
Serial Number: 2248
Issue Time: 2026 Jul 04 1412 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 2247
Valid From: 2026 Jul 04 0100 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2026 Jul 04 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK06
Serial Number: 722
Issue Time: 2026 Jul 04 1358 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Threshold Reached: 2026 Jul 04 1358 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1200-1500
Active Warning: YES
Noaa Scale: G2 - Moderate

Comment:
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK06
Serial Number: 665
Issue Time: 2026 Jul 04 1357 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 6 expected
Valid From: 2026 Jul 04 1356 UTC
Valid To: 2026 Jul 05 2100 UTC
Warning Conditions: Onset
Noaa Scale: G2 - Moderate

Comment:
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK05
Serial Number: 2035
Issue Time: 2026 Jul 04 1321 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2026 Jul 04 1319 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1200-1500
Active Warning: YES
Noaa Scale: G1 - Minor

Comment:
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK05
Serial Number: 2034
Issue Time: 2026 Jul 04 1043 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2026 Jul 04 1043 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0900-1200
Active Warning: YES
Noaa Scale: G1 - Minor

Comment:
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK06
Serial Number: 721
Issue Time: 2026 Jul 04 0839 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Threshold Reached: 2026 Jul 04 0839 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0600-0900
Active Warning: YES
Noaa Scale: G2 - Moderate

Comment:
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK05
Serial Number: 2033
Issue Time: 2026 Jul 04 0715 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2026 Jul 04 0715 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0600-0900
Active Warning: YES
Noaa Scale: G1 - Minor

Comment:
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK07
Serial Number: 218
Issue Time: 2026 Jul 04 0509 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 7
Threshold Reached: 2026 Jul 04 0509 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0300-0600
Active Warning: YES
Noaa Scale: G3 - Strong

Comment:
NOAA Scale: G3 - Strong

Space Weather Message Code: WARK07
Serial Number: 151
Issue Time: 2026 Jul 04 0501 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 7 or greater expected
Valid From: 2026 Jul 04 0500 UTC
Valid To: 2026 Jul 05 1200 UTC
Warning Conditions: Onset
Noaa Scale: G3 - Greater

Comment:
NOAA Scale: G3 - Greater

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK06
Serial Number: 720
Issue Time: 2026 Jul 04 0450 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Threshold Reached: 2026 Jul 04 0450 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0300-0600
Active Warning: YES
Noaa Scale: G2 - Moderate

Comment:
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK05
Serial Number: 2032
Issue Time: 2026 Jul 04 0423 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2026 Jul 04 0423 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0300-0600
Active Warning: YES
Noaa Scale: G1 - Minor

Comment:
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5376
Issue Time: 2026 Jul 04 0256 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 5375
Valid From: 2026 Jul 03 1209 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2026 Jul 04 1800 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
Conditions likely persisting.
Conditions likely persisting.
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK05
Serial Number: 2247
Issue Time: 2026 Jul 04 0255 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 2246
Valid From: 2026 Jul 04 0100 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2026 Jul 04 1500 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
Conditions likely persiststing.
Conditions likely persiststing.NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK06
Serial Number: 664
Issue Time: 2026 Jul 04 0254 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 6 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 663
Valid From: 2026 Jul 04 0227 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2026 Jul 04 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
Conditions will likely persist.
Conditions will likely persist.NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK06
Serial Number: 719
Issue Time: 2026 Jul 04 0250 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Threshold Reached: 2026 Jul 04 0248 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0000-0300
Active Warning: YES
Noaa Scale: G2 - Moderate

Comment:
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK06
Serial Number: 663
Issue Time: 2026 Jul 04 0228 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 6 expected
Valid From: 2026 Jul 04 0227 UTC
Valid To: 2026 Jul 04 0600 UTC
Warning Conditions: Onset
Noaa Scale: G2 - Moderate

Comment:
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK05
Serial Number: 2031
Issue Time: 2026 Jul 04 0205 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2026 Jul 04 0206 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0000-0300
Active Warning: YES
Noaa Scale: G1 - Minor

Comment:
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK05
Serial Number: 2246
Issue Time: 2026 Jul 04 0125 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2026 Jul 04 0100 UTC
Valid To: 2026 Jul 04 0600 UTC
Warning Conditions: Onset
Noaa Scale: G1 - Minor

Comment: Correcting for wrong end date
Correcting for wrong end dateNOAA Scale: G1 - Minor
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5375
Issue Time: 2026 Jul 04 0124 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 5374
Valid From: 2026 Jul 03 1209 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2026 Jul 04 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK05
Serial Number: 2246
Issue Time: 2026 Jul 04 0101 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2026 Jul 04 0100 UTC
Valid To: 2026 Jul 05 0600 UTC
Warning Conditions: Onset
Noaa Scale: G1 - Minor

Comment:
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK04
Serial Number: 2670
Issue Time: 2026 Jul 03 2054 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2026 Jul 03 2049 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1800-2100
Active Warning: YES

Comment:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: SUM10R
Serial Number: 921
Issue Time: 2026 Jul 03 2020 UTC

SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2026 Jul 03 1856 UTC
Maximum Time: 2026 Jul 03 1857 UTC
End Time: 2026 Jul 04 1859 UTC
Peak Flux: 780 sfu
Duration: 3 minutes
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 203 sfu

Comment:

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 1510
Issue Time: 2026 Jul 03 1939 UTC

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2026 Jul 03 1900 UTC
Estimate Velocity: 579 km/s

Comment:

Space Weather Message Code: SUMXM5
Serial Number: 323
Issue Time: 2026 Jul 03 1911 UTC

SUMMARY: X-ray Event exceeded M5
Begin Time: 2026 Jul 03 1857 UTC
Maximum Time: 2026 Jul 03 1859 UTC
End Time: 2026 Jul 04 1903 UTC
Xray Class: M6.3
Optical Class:
Location: S06W46
Noaa Scale: R2 - Moderate

Comment:
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered primarily on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth.
Radio - Limited blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for tens of minutes.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTXMF
Serial Number: 537
Issue Time: 2026 Jul 03 1900 UTC

ALERT: X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2026 Jul 03 1856 UTC
Noaa Scale: R2 - Moderate

Comment:
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap.

Space Weather Message Code: SUMXM5
Serial Number: 322
Issue Time: 2026 Jul 03 1859 UTC

SUMMARY: X-ray Event exceeded M5
Begin Time: 2026 Jul 03 1749 UTC
Maximum Time: 2026 Jul 03 1811 UTC
End Time: 2026 Jul 04 1832 UTC
Xray Class: M6.7
Optical Class:
Location: N17W66
Noaa Scale: R2 - Moderate

Comment:
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered primarily on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth.
Radio - Limited blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for tens of minutes.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 1509
Issue Time: 2026 Jul 03 1847 UTC

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2026 Jul 03 1805 UTC
Estimate Velocity: 1831 km/s

Comment:

Space Weather Message Code: SUM10R
Serial Number: 920
Issue Time: 2026 Jul 03 1818 UTC

SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2026 Jul 03 1806 UTC
Maximum Time: 2026 Jul 03 1808 UTC
End Time: 2026 Jul 04 1809 UTC
Peak Flux: 220 sfu
Duration: 3 minutes
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 203 sfu

Comment:

Space Weather Message Code: ALTXMF
Serial Number: 536
Issue Time: 2026 Jul 03 1810 UTC

ALERT: X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2026 Jul 03 1807 UTC
Noaa Scale: R2 - Moderate

Comment:
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap.


Solar-terrestrial indices for 03 July follow.
Solar flux 187 and estimated planetary A-index 10.
The estimated planetary K-index at 1200 UTC on 04 July was 4.67.

Space weather for the past 24 hours has been strong.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G3 level occurred.
Radio blackouts reaching the R2 level occurred.

Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be moderate.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G2 level are likely.
Radio blackouts reaching the R2 level are expected.


Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 02 Jul 004
Estimated Ap 03 Jul 012
Predicted Ap 04 Jul-06 Jul 030-018-015

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jul-06 Jul
Active                25/30/35
Minor storm           30/35/20
Moderate storm        30/15/05
Strong-Extreme storm  10/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 04 Jul - 06 Jul
             Jul 04    Jul 05    Jul 06
00-03UT        5.67      2.67      3.00
03-06UT        4.67      2.33      4.00
06-09UT        4.33      2.33      3.33
09-12UT        4.33      2.33      3.33
12-15UT        3.67      2.33      3.00
15-18UT        3.67      2.33      3.00
18-21UT        3.33      4.67      2.00
21-00UT        2.33      5.00      2.00


Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 7 (NOAA Scale
G3).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 04-Jul 06 2026 is 7.33 (NOAA Scale
G3).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 04-Jul 06 2026

             Jul 04       Jul 05       Jul 06
00-03UT       6.00 (G2)    2.67         3.00
03-06UT       7.33 (G3)    2.33         4.00
06-09UT       5.67 (G2)    2.33         3.33
09-12UT       4.67 (G1)    2.33         3.33
12-15UT       5.00 (G1)    2.33         3.00
15-18UT       4.33         2.33         3.00
18-21UT       3.33         4.67 (G1)    2.00
21-00UT       3.00         5.00 (G1)    2.00

Rationale: Influence from the 30 Jun CME arrival is expected to persist,
but diminish over the remainder of 04 Jul. G2 (Moderate) conditions are
still likely, with conditions decreasing to G1 (Minor) to active levels
by the end of the day. Further CME activity from 01-02 Jul, combined
with possible influence from +CH72, is likely to bring active to
additional G1 (Minor) storm conditions on 05 Jul, with an isolated
period of G2 (Moderate) levels possible. Barring additional, unforeseen
CME activity, 06 Jul is likely to see lessened activity as influences
wane.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 04-Jul 06 2026

              Jul 04  Jul 05  Jul 06
S1 or greater   20%     20%     10%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton
event (S1-Minor) due to the recent and potential flare activity of
Regions 4478 and 4479 on 04-06 Jul.


C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Jul 03 2026 1811 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 04-Jul 06 2026

              Jul 04        Jul 05        Jul 06
R1-R2           75%           75%           60%
R3 or greater   20%           20%           10%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected, with a
slight chance for R3 (Strong) events through 05 Jul. As Regions 4479 and
4480 rotate around the west limb by 06 Jul, activity is likely to be at
moderate levels, as chances for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) events begins to
decrease.


Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at high levels with thirteen M-class
(R1/R2-Minor/Moderate) flares during the period. Region 4479 (N17W72,
Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) continued to be the main contributor, adding nine
M-class and multiple C-class flares. The M-class activity included an
M6.7 flare at 03/1811 UTC, the largest of the period. Associated with
this event was a Type II sweep (estimated velocity of 1,831 km/s) and a
203 sfu Tenflare. Additionally, the region produced: an M2.3/Sf at
04/0023 UTC, an M2.1/Sf at 04/0113 UTC, an M3.7/1n at 04/0332 UTC, an
M4.0 at 04/0342 UTC, an M1.3 at 04/0515 UTC, an M1.8 at 04/0807 UTC, an
M1.0/Sf at 04/0852 UTC, and an M3.2 at 04/1112 UTC.

Region 4478 (S06W54, Fko/beta-gamma) added a couple of M-flares as well,
including an impulsive M6.3/2b flare at 03/1859 UTC. Associated with
this flare was a 780 sfu Tenflare and a Type II sweep (estimated
velocity of 387 km/s). Additionally, 4478 produced an M1.5/Sf flare at
03/2008 UTC, and a plethora of C-class flares.

Region 4480 (S18W75, Dao/beta) added to the M-class flare count with two
of its own: an M1.4/1f flare at 03/1313 UTC and an M2.0/Sf at 04/0000
UTC. An unnumbered region just beyond the east limb added the remaining
M-flare: an M1.2 flare at 04/0201 UTC. This region will be monitored for
additional activity as it rotates onto the visible disk.

Regions 4478 and 4480 both exhibited decay throughout the period. Region
4479 added several intermediate spots as it approached the limb. New
Region 4481 (N14E53, Axx/alpha) was numbered this period.

LASCO C2 imagery detected a slow-moving CME off the NWN portion of the
disk, first visible at 03/1824 UTC. A potential Earth-directed component
will be analyzed as more imagery becomes available.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to remain at moderate levels (R1-R2,
Minor-Moderate) with a slight chance for X-class flares (R3-Strong),
through 05 Jul. As Regions 4479 and 4480 rotate around the west limb by
06 Jul, activity is likely to be at moderate levels, as chances for
M-flares begins to decrease.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was
slightly elevated, reaching a peak just under 2 pfu.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to increase to moderate
to high levels on 05-06 Jul. There is a slight chance for a greater than
10 MeV proton event (S1-Minor) due to the recent and potential flare
activity of Regions 4478 and 4479 on 04-06 Jul.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters began the period enhanced in response to the
likely arrival of the 30 Jun CME shock. Total field strength (Bt)
averaged near 12 nT, the Bz component fluctuated between +/-7 nT (with
an isolated deviation to -13 nT), and wind speeds averaged near 480
km/s. Just after 03/2100 UTC, an additional enhancement was observed,
potentially indicating the arrival of the main CME driver, or an
additional CME from 01 Jul. Total field increased to 24 nT. Bz was
initially north, but eventually saw a southward deviation to -19 nT.
Wind speeds increased from ~535 km/s to reach a peak of nearly 630 km/s.
Phi was predominantly positive until around 03/2130 UTC when it shifted
into a negative orientation.

.Forecast...
Disturbed solar wind conditions, likely from the 30 Jun CME, are
expected to persist for the remainder of 04 July. Possible influence
from +CH72, combined with additional CME activity from 01-02 Jul events,
are likely on 05 Jul, eventually tapering off throughout 06 Jul.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels the first
half of the period, then increased to G2 (Moderate) and G3 (Strong)
levels just after the turn of the UT day.

.Forecast...
Influence from the 30 Jun CME arrival is expected to persist, but
diminish over the remainder of 04 Jul. G2 (Moderate) conditions are
still likely, with conditions decreasing to G1 (Minor) to active levels
by the end of the day. Further CME activity from 01-02 Jul, combined
with possible influence from +CH72, is likely to bring active to
additional G1 (Minor) storm conditions on 05 Jul, with an isolated
period of G2 (Moderate) levels possible. Barring additional, unforeseen
CME activity, 06 Jul is likely to see lessened activity as influences
wane.


27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2026 Jun 29     175          10          5
2026 Jun 30     180          25          5
2026 Jul 01     175          12          4
2026 Jul 02     170           8          3
2026 Jul 03     175           5          2
2026 Jul 04     170           5          2
2026 Jul 05     160           5          2
2026 Jul 06     160           5          2
2026 Jul 07     155           5          2
2026 Jul 08     155          12          4
2026 Jul 09     150          12          4
2026 Jul 10     140           8          3
2026 Jul 11     140           5          2
2026 Jul 12     135           5          2
2026 Jul 13     130           5          2
2026 Jul 14     135           5          2
2026 Jul 15     140           5          2
2026 Jul 16     140          10          3
2026 Jul 17     145           8          3
2026 Jul 18     150           5          2
2026 Jul 19     145           5          2
2026 Jul 20     145           5          2
2026 Jul 21     145           5          2
2026 Jul 22     150          15          5
2026 Jul 23     155          12          4
2026 Jul 24     155           8          3
2026 Jul 25     155           8          3


  • GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
    It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

  • DATA SOURCES: Learn more
    Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

  • 'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
    These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

    The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

    Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

  • Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
    The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

    Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

  • Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
    The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.
  • DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

    The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

    Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

  • ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

    ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
  • GOES Satalites: Learn more

    GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

  • Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
    Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
    These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
    There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.
  • User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
    If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
    Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

 

v4.16b

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v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
 
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
 
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
 
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
 
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)

  Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast


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