Aurora Forecast

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27 Day

Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: SUM10R
Serial Number: 897
Issue Time: 2025 Dec 28 2255 UTC

SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2025 Dec 28 2225 UTC
Maximum Time: 2025 Dec 28 2231 UTC
End Time: 2025 Dec 28 2236 UTC
Duration: 11 minutes
Peak Flux: 300 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 188 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 3588
Issue Time: 2025 Dec 28 0459 UTC

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 3587
Begin Time: 2025 Dec 21 1425 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 6123 pfu
Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

Solar-terrestrial indices for 28 December follow.
Solar flux 188 and estimated planetary A-index 9.
The estimated planetary K-index at 0000 UTC on 29 December was 2.33.

Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor.
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level occurred.

No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.

Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 27 Dec 007
Estimated Ap 28 Dec 008
Predicted Ap 29 Dec-31 Dec 005-005-008

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Dec-31 Dec
Active                10/10/25
Minor storm           01/01/10
Moderate storm        01/01/01
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 29 Dec - 31 Dec
             Dec 29    Dec 30    Dec 31
00-03UT        1.67      1.33      2.33
03-06UT        1.33      1.33      2.33
06-09UT        1.33      1.33      2.33
09-12UT        1.33      1.33      2.33
12-15UT        1.33      1.67      2.33
15-18UT        1.33      1.33      2.00
18-21UT        1.67      1.67      1.67
21-00UT        1.67      1.67      2.33

Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 29-Dec 31 2025 is 2.33 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 29-Dec 31 2025

             Dec 29       Dec 30       Dec 31
00-03UT       1.67         1.33         2.33
03-06UT       1.33         1.33         2.33
06-09UT       1.33         1.33         2.33
09-12UT       1.33         1.33         2.33
12-15UT       1.33         1.67         2.33
15-18UT       1.33         1.33         2.00
18-21UT       1.67         1.67         1.67
21-00UT       1.67         1.67         2.33

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Dec 29-Dec 31 2025

              Dec 29  Dec 30  Dec 31
S1 or greater   10%     10%     10%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton
flux to reach S1 (Minor) levels over 29-31 Dec.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Dec 28 2025 2239 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Dec 29-Dec 31 2025

              Dec 29        Dec 30        Dec 31
R1-R2           45%           45%           45%
R3 or greater   10%           10%           10%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts,
and a slight chance for an R3 (Strong) or greater event, over 29-31 Dec.

Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region 4325 (S09E44,
Dao/beta) produced an impulsive M1.3/Sf (R1-Minor) flare at 28/2113 UTC,
and Region 4317 (N12W34, Dao/beta) produced an M4.2 flare (R1), with a
300 sfu Tenflare, at 28/2239 UTC. Region 4321 (S11W64, Dkc/beta-delta)
remained the largest region on the disk and continued to increase the
number of intermediate spots, becoming compact in its interior. Both
Regions 4324 (N25E51,Dao/beta-gamma) and 4325 (S09E44, Dso/beta) grew in
area and spot count. Region 4317 exhibited fading trailer spots. New
Regions 4326 (S03W34, Bxo/beta) and 4327 (S20W21, Bxo/beta) developed on
the disk and were numbered. The remaining regions remained stable or
showed slight decay during the day. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed
in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a chance for
M-class flares (R1/R2 Minor-Moderate) on 29-31 Dec due to the flare
potential of the current active regions. There is a slight chance for
X-class (R3-Strong) flares during the 3-day period.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured at geostationary orbit
reached high levels with a peak flux of 8,999 pfu observed at 28/1610
UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels
during the period.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remained at high
levels on 29-31 Dec. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to
remain at background levels through 31 Dec, with a slight chance for a
flux above the threshold of 10 pfu due to the flaring potential of the
active regions on the visible solar disk.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected near-background conditions. Wind speeds
remained fairly steady through the period from about 450-500 km/s. Total
interplanetary magnetic field strength averaged from about 4-7 nT, and
the Bz component ranged between +4 to -5 nT. Phi was predominantly
positive.

.Forecast...
Mostly ambient solar wind conditions are expected to prevail over 29-30
Dec. Solar wind parameters are expected to became enhanced by 31 Dec due
to effects from a recurrent negative polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with isolated unsettled periods.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at mostly quiet levels, with
possible isolated unsettled periods, on 29-30 Dec. Quiet to more
unsettled periods are expected on 31 Dec due to effects from a recurrent
negative polarity CH HSS.

27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2025 Dec 22     130          28          5
2025 Dec 23     135          22          5
2025 Dec 24     140          20          4
2025 Dec 25     145          15          4
2025 Dec 26     150          10          3
2025 Dec 27     155           5          2
2025 Dec 28     155           5          2
2025 Dec 29     160           8          3
2025 Dec 30     170          30          6
2025 Dec 31     170          25          5
2026 Jan 01     165          10          4
2026 Jan 02     160          10          4
2026 Jan 03     160           8          3
2026 Jan 04     160           5          2
2026 Jan 05     160           5          2
2026 Jan 06     160           5          2
2026 Jan 07     140           5          2
2026 Jan 08     130           5          2
2026 Jan 09     125          15          4
2026 Jan 10     120          10          4
2026 Jan 11     120           5          2
2026 Jan 12     120          10          4
2026 Jan 13     120          15          4
2026 Jan 14     115          15          4
2026 Jan 15     120           5          2
2026 Jan 16     120           5          2
2026 Jan 17     125          20          5

Save as 'My Presets'

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.
From Date: (YYYY-MM-DD HH:MM). Leave empty for real-time.

Range: (in hours, WARNING 1 hour = ~10KB of data)
Local Time Zone:
Enable Forecast / Timeshift (Recommended) Enable Fixed Y Axis Values Combine Y Series (B*, Proton, Dyn Preasure & Kp). Show Axis Titles Show Graph Legend (Keys) Enable Auto Update (Range will be reduced to 2 hours) Enable Night Vision Red Theme

DATA SOURCES: Learn more
Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.
'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

AF Index (Experemental) AF Community Activity (Hits)
Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

SWPC Kp (Observation)
SWPC Kp (Prediction) GeoSpace Kp (Prediction) Wing Kp (Legacy : Date < 22/06/18)
Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.

Northern Hemisphere (Aurora Borealis) Southern Hemisphere (Aurora Australis)
DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

Mag Bt (Total Strength) Mag Bx (X Axis) Mag By (Y Axis) Mag Bz (Z Axis) Solar Wind Speed Proton Density Dynamic Pressure (Calculated)
ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
Show ACE (When enabled the forecasting / timeshift feature will be disabled)
GOES Satalites: Learn more

GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

Primary Secondary Variation (Pri - Sec)
Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.

Macquarie Island (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Mawson (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Canberra (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Ruru Obseratory (www.ruruobseratory.org.nz / NZ) Aurora Forecast #1 (Hobart) Aurora Forecast #2 (Hobart) Aurora Forecast #3 (Hobart)
User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.

v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)

v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.

v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).

v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.

> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)
Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

DATA SOURCES: Learn more Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

DATA SOURCES: Learn more
Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.