Aurora Forecast

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27 Day

Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5248
Issue Time: 2026 Feb 06 2351 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 5247
Valid From: 2026 Feb 06 1253 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2026 Feb 07 0900 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK05
Serial Number: 2188
Issue Time: 2026 Feb 06 1744 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2026 Feb 06 1744 UTC
Valid To: 2026 Feb 06 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK04
Serial Number: 2628
Issue Time: 2026 Feb 06 1501 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Synoptic Period: 1200-1500 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5247
Issue Time: 2026 Feb 06 1254 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2026 Feb 06 1253 UTC
Valid To: 2026 Feb 06 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Solar-terrestrial indices for 06 February follow.
Solar flux 164 and estimated planetary A-index 16.
The estimated planetary K-index at 0000 UTC on 07 February was 3.33.

No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be moderate.
Radio blackouts reaching the R2 level are expected.

Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 05 Feb 022
Estimated Ap 06 Feb 014
Predicted Ap 07 Feb-09 Feb 015-020-016

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Feb-09 Feb
Active                35/35/35
Minor storm           20/40/15
Moderate storm        01/05/01
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 07 Feb - 09 Feb
             Feb 07    Feb 08    Feb 09
00-03UT        4.00      4.67      3.33
03-06UT        2.67      3.67      2.00
06-09UT        1.67      3.33      2.00
09-12UT        1.67      3.33      3.00
12-15UT        2.33      2.00      3.00
15-18UT        2.67      3.33      3.33
18-21UT        3.33      3.33      3.67
21-00UT        4.00      3.67      3.67

Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 07-Feb 09 2026 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 07-Feb 09 2026

             Feb 07       Feb 08       Feb 09
00-03UT       4.00         4.67 (G1)    3.33
03-06UT       2.67         3.67         2.00
06-09UT       1.67         3.33         2.00
09-12UT       1.67         3.33         3.00
12-15UT       2.33         2.00         3.00
15-18UT       2.67         3.33         3.33
18-21UT       3.33         3.33         3.67
21-00UT       4.00         3.67         3.67

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 08 Feb due to the
anticipated arrival of the CME associated with the 03 Feb filament
eruption, coupled with a new negative polarity CH HSS.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 07-Feb 09 2026

              Feb 07  Feb 08  Feb 09
S1 or greater   25%     25%     25%

Rationale: There is a chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms on
07-09 Feb due to the magnetic complexity and dynamic of the active
regions on the visible disk.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 07-Feb 09 2026

              Feb 07        Feb 08        Feb 09
R1-R2           80%           80%           80%
R3 or greater   35%           35%           35%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected, with a
chance for R3 (Strong) or greater levels on 07-09 Feb due to the
magnetic complexity and dynamic of the active regions on the visible
disk.

Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity decayed to low levels with numerous C-class flares
observed, particularly from Region 4366 (N14W33, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta).
This region produced the largest flare of the period, an impulsive
C6.9/Sf event at 06/1021 UTC. This region remains the largest and most
magnetically complex group on the disk, showing some minor intermediate
spot growth. Region 4366 produced seven C-class flares.

Region 4371 (S23E20, Dai/beta-delta) continued to slowly grow and
produced an impulsive C2.1/Sf flare at 06/1754 UTC. Both Regions 4362
(S17W35, Cao/beta) and 4372 (S23, L=254)) produced C-class activity, but
showed little spot change. All other regions were unchanged. New Region
4373 (N10E66, Hsx/alpha) emerged on the disk.

A large, partial halo CME was observed in the NE beginning at 05/2336
UTC. This event originated on the far-side of the disk and is not
considered to have any Earth-directed component. No other CMEs were
observed.

.Forecast...
Moderate to high solar activity is expected due to M-class flaring
(R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) for 07-09 Feb, with a chance for X-class flares
(R3-Strong or greater) due to the complexity of Regions 4366 and 4371.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained at or below moderate
levels throughout the period. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at
geosynchronous orbit remained at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at moderate
levels through 08 Feb, increasing to high levels on 09 Feb. The greater
than 10 MeV proton flux has a low chance to exceed S1 (Minor) levels
over 07-09 Feb due to the high eruptive potential and increasingly
favorable position of Region 4366 in the western hemisphere.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected the transition from the passage of the
complex CME associated with the 01 Feb X8.1 flare into a negative
polarity CH HSS. Total magnetic field (Bt) remained relatively constant
below 8 nT through the period. About midway to late in the period,
the Bz (north-south) component reached its greatest southward deviation
of -6 nT. Wind speeds indicated a slow, steady decline in wind speeds
declining from about 600 km/s to end-of-period speeds approaching 500
km/s. The Phi angle remained in a negative orientation.

.Forecast...
The solar wind is expected to remain elevated through 07 Feb as Earth
remains in the negative polarity CH HSS. A disturbance is anticipated on
08-09 Feb with the arrival of the CME associated with the 03 Feb
filament eruption, coupled with a new negative polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels.

.Forecast...
Geomagnetic conditions are forecast to remain generally active on 07 Feb
before a likely return to Minor (G1) storm levels on 08 Feb due to the
anticipated arrival of the CME associated with the 03 Feb filament
eruption, coupled with a new negative polarity CH HSS. Unsettled to
active levels are likely on 09 Jan due to CH HSS effects.

27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2026 Feb 02     160           5          2
2026 Feb 03     155           5          2
2026 Feb 04     155           5          2
2026 Feb 05     145           5          2
2026 Feb 06     120           8          3
2026 Feb 07     125           8          3
2026 Feb 08     130           8          3
2026 Feb 09     135          10          3
2026 Feb 10     140           8          3
2026 Feb 11     135           8          3
2026 Feb 12     140           5          2
2026 Feb 13     145          20          5
2026 Feb 14     145          15          4
2026 Feb 15     155          15          4
2026 Feb 16     160          15          4
2026 Feb 17     170          15          4
2026 Feb 18     180          15          4
2026 Feb 19     175          15          4
2026 Feb 20     170          15          4
2026 Feb 21     160          15          4
2026 Feb 22     150           8          3
2026 Feb 23     140           8          3
2026 Feb 24     135          20          4
2026 Feb 25     130          20          4
2026 Feb 26     130           8          3
2026 Feb 27     140           5          2
2026 Feb 28     160           5          2

Save as 'My Presets'

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.
From Date: (YYYY-MM-DD HH:MM). Leave empty for real-time.

Range: (in hours, WARNING 1 hour = ~10KB of data)
Local Time Zone:
Enable Forecast / Timeshift (Recommended) Enable Fixed Y Axis Values Combine Y Series (B*, Proton, Dyn Preasure & Kp). Show Axis Titles Show Graph Legend (Keys) Enable Auto Update (Range will be reduced to 2 hours) Enable Night Vision Red Theme

DATA SOURCES: Learn more
Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.
'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

AF Index (Experemental) AF Community Activity (Hits)
Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

SWPC Kp (Observation)
SWPC Kp (Prediction) GeoSpace Kp (Prediction) Wing Kp (Legacy : Date < 22/06/18)
Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.

Northern Hemisphere (Aurora Borealis) Southern Hemisphere (Aurora Australis)
DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

Mag Bt (Total Strength) Mag Bx (X Axis) Mag By (Y Axis) Mag Bz (Z Axis) Solar Wind Speed Proton Density Dynamic Pressure (Calculated)
ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
Show ACE (When enabled the forecasting / timeshift feature will be disabled)
GOES Satalites: Learn more

GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

Primary Secondary Variation (Pri - Sec)
Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.

Macquarie Island (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Mawson (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Canberra (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Ruru Obseratory (www.ruruobseratory.org.nz / NZ) Aurora Forecast #1 (Hobart) Aurora Forecast #2 (Hobart) Aurora Forecast #3 (Hobart)
User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.

v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)

v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.

v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).

v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.

> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)
Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

DATA SOURCES: Learn more Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

DATA SOURCES: Learn more
Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.