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Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 3575
Issue Time: 2025 Dec 09 1210 UTC

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 3574
Begin Time: 2025 Dec 05 1530 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 1040 pfu
Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP4
Serial Number: 699
Issue Time: 2025 Dec 09 0256 UTC

ALERT: Type IV Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2025 Dec 09 0220 UTC
Description: Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 1454
Issue Time: 2025 Dec 09 0215 UTC

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2025 Dec 09 0152 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 759 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 1453
Issue Time: 2025 Dec 09 0204 UTC

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2025 Dec 09 0141 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 1825 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.


Solar-terrestrial indices for 08 December follow.
Solar flux 186 and estimated planetary A-index 2.
The estimated planetary K-index at 1800 UTC on 09 December was 1.67.

Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor.
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level occurred.

Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be moderate.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are likely.
Radio blackouts reaching the R2 level are likely.


Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 07 Dec 009
Estimated Ap 08 Dec 018
Predicted Ap 09 Dec-11 Dec 066-033-010

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Dec-11 Dec
Active                02/25/25
Minor storm           20/30/05
Moderate storm        25/30/01
Strong-Extreme storm  51/10/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 09 Dec - 11 Dec
             Dec 09    Dec 10    Dec 11
00-03UT        4.33      5.33      2.67
03-06UT        5.67      5.00      2.00
06-09UT        6.67      5.00      2.33
09-12UT        6.00      4.33      2.33
12-15UT        6.67      4.00      2.33
15-18UT        5.33      3.67      2.33
18-21UT        5.00      3.67      2.33
21-00UT        3.67      1.33      2.67


Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 09-Dec 11 2025 is 6.67 (NOAA Scale
G3).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 09-Dec 11 2025

             Dec 09       Dec 10       Dec 11
00-03UT       2.33         5.33 (G1)    2.67
03-06UT       0.67         5.00 (G1)    2.00
06-09UT       1.00         5.00 (G1)    2.33
09-12UT       1.00         4.33         2.33
12-15UT       6.67 (G3)    4.00         2.33
15-18UT       5.33 (G1)    3.67         2.33
18-21UT       5.00 (G1)    3.67         2.33
21-00UT       3.67         1.33         2.67

Rationale: Periods of G2-G3 (Moderate-Strong) geomagnetic storms are
likely on 09 Dec, due to the anticipated influence of a CME from Dec 06.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Dec 09-Dec 11 2025

              Dec 09  Dec 10  Dec 11
S1 or greater   15%     15%     15%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar
radiation storms on 09-11 Dec.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Dec 08 2025 2117 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Dec 09-Dec 11 2025

              Dec 09        Dec 10        Dec 11
R1-R2           65%           65%           65%
R3 or greater   15%           15%           15%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a
slight chance for R3 (Strong) or greater events on 09-11 Dec.


Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached high levels. Region 4298 (S16W64, Cso/beta)
produced an impulsive X1.1/2b (R3-Strong) flare at 08/0501 UTC. Region
4299 (N22W25, Dai/beta-gamma-delta) produced an M2.4/2n (R1-Minor) flare
at 08/0012 UTC and an M1.8/1n (R1-Minor) flare at 08/0654 UTC.

Region 4294 (S16W42, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) produced an an M2.0 flare at
08/0036 UTC and an M1.1 at 08/1305 UTC. Enhanced flux emergence in its
leading spots and intermediate region brought about a larger area and
sunspot count. This region also produced and M3.2 flare at
08/2117 UTC at the same time that Region 4304 was also flaring and
possibly contributing to the observed X-ray enhancement. Similar
situation happened at 08/2228 UTC, when an M1.2 was measured while both
Regions 4294 and 4299 were simultaneously flaring.

Eruptions from the M1.8/1n flare at 08/0012 UTC and the X1.1/2b flare at
08/0501 UTC both appeared to be reabsorbed with no discernible CME
activity.

.Forecast...
M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) are likely over 09-11 Dec, with a
slight chance for X-class flares (R3/Strong) This is based on past flare
history and the potential of current active regions on the disk.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux has been at high levels, reaching a
peak of 1039 pfu. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux has been at
background.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on
09 Dec, and then decrease to normal to moderate levels on 10-11 Dec.

A slight chance exists for a greater than 10 MeV proton flux enhancement
above 10 pfu (S1/Minor) through 10 Dec due to the eruptive potential and
history of multiple active regions across the visible disk.


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected nominal conditions. There was a weak
enhancement, but it rendered nothing. The total field remained around 7
nT with the Bz component oscillating between +/-3 nT. Solar wind speeds
were between 340-440 km/s. The phi angle remained in the negative
sector.

.Forecast...
The solar wind environment is expected to become enhanced due to the
arrival of a CME that left the Sun on 06 Dec. Expected arrival in 09
Dec, waning conditions are expected into 11 Dec.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
Geomagnetic activity was at quiet levels due to waning negative polarity
coronal hole influences.

.Forecast...
G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storm levels are likely
on 09 Dec due to the anticipated influence of the CME that left the Sun
on 06 Dec. G1 conditions on 10 Dec are likely due to waning CME effects.


27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2025 Dec 08     190          18          5
2025 Dec 09     190          70          7
2025 Dec 10     185          33          5
2025 Dec 11     175          10          3
2025 Dec 12     155           5          2
2025 Dec 13     140          12          4
2025 Dec 14     130          12          4
2025 Dec 15     130           8          3
2025 Dec 16     135           5          2
2025 Dec 17     135           8          3
2025 Dec 18     140          10          3
2025 Dec 19     140           8          3
2025 Dec 20     140           8          3
2025 Dec 21     140          15          5
2025 Dec 22     140          20          5
2025 Dec 23     145          20          5
2025 Dec 24     160          25          5
2025 Dec 25     170          20          5
2025 Dec 26     180          20          5
2025 Dec 27     180          15          4
2025 Dec 28     180          10          3
2025 Dec 29     175           8          3
2025 Dec 30     180          30          6
2025 Dec 31     180          25          5
2026 Jan 01     175          10          3
2026 Jan 02     170          10          3
2026 Jan 03     170           8          3


  • GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
    It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

  • DATA SOURCES: Learn more
    Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

  • 'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
    These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

    The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

    Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

  • Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
    The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

    Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

  • Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
    The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.
  • DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

    The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

    Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

  • ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

    ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
  • GOES Satalites: Learn more

    GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

  • Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
    Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
    These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
    There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.
  • User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
    If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
    Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

 

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.


v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
 
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
 
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
 
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
 
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)

  Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey