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Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: ALTK04
Serial Number: 2657
Issue Time: 2026 May 19 0855 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2026 May 19 0828 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0600-0900
Active Warning: YES

Comment:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5343
Issue Time: 2026 May 19 0703 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2026 May 19 0701 UTC
Valid To: 2026 May 19 1800 UTC
Warning Conditions: Onset

Comment:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 3689
Issue Time: 2026 May 19 0514 UTC

ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Threshold Reached: 2026 May 16 1740 UTC
Station: GOES-19

Comment: Yesterdays max: 6667 pfu
Yesterdays max: 6667 pfu


Solar-terrestrial indices for 18 May follow.
Solar flux 105 and estimated planetary A-index 9.
The estimated planetary K-index at 1500 UTC on 19 May was 4.00.

No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be minor.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are likely.


Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 17 May 008
Estimated Ap 18 May 015
Predicted Ap 19 May-21 May 021-008-010

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 May-21 May
Active                15/25/30
Minor storm           40/10/10
Moderate storm        25/01/01
Strong-Extreme storm  05/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 19 May - 21 May
             May 19    May 20    May 21
00-03UT        4.33      2.33      2.67
03-06UT        5.33      2.33      2.00
06-09UT        3.67      2.00      2.33
09-12UT        2.67      2.00      2.33
12-15UT        2.00      2.00      2.33
15-18UT        2.00      2.00      2.33
18-21UT        3.00      2.00      2.33
21-00UT        3.33      2.00      2.67


Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 19-May 21 2026 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown May 19-May 21 2026

             May 19       May 20       May 21
00-03UT       1.67         2.33         2.67
03-06UT       3.00         2.33         2.00
06-09UT       3.67         2.00         2.33
09-12UT       4.00         2.00         2.33
12-15UT       4.67 (G1)    2.00         2.33
15-18UT       2.00         2.00         2.33
18-21UT       3.00         2.00         2.33
21-00UT       3.33         2.00         2.67

Rationale: Isolated periods of up to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are
possible on 19 May due to a potential glancing blow from a CME that left
the Sun on 16 May.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-19 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 19-May 21 2026

              May 19  May 20  May 21
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for May 19-May 21 2026

              May 19        May 20        May 21
R1-R2           40%           40%           40%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
through 21 May.


Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity continued at low levels. The largest event of the period
was a C2.1/sf flare at 19/0740 UTC from Region 4436 (N19W59, Hsx/alpha).
This region was responsible for the vast majority of the otherwise
occasional low-level B-class flaring observed throughout the period.

There are currently four numbered regions on the visible disk, nearly
all of which exhibited steady signs of decay and simplification. Region
4436 remained mostly stable, though it produced short-lived, transitory
trailing pores. Region 4439 (N06E42, Dao/beta) underwent penumbral decay
alongside flux submergence in its trailing spots. Region 4440 (N17E42,
Hrx/alpha) showed a slight reduction in its overall penumbral extent.
Region 4441 (N08W01, Dao/beta) was mostly stable in both area and
magnetic complexity, despite some localized flux emergence.

No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels through 21 May, with a
chance for isolated M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate). This flare
potential is driven primarily by the complexity of Region 4441 and the
recent eruptive trends of Region 4436.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at
high levels, reaching a peak flux of 6,667 pfu observed at 18/1435 UTC.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at
background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to drop to normal to
moderate levels 19-20 May as high-speed stream influences continue to
wane, likely returning to moderate to high levels on 21 May. The greater
than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at baseline background
levels through 21 May.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected a very gradual decline back toward
nominal conditions under the waning influence of a negative polarity
coronal hole high-speed stream (-CH HSS), until shortly after 19/0600
UTC, when a weak shock occurred. Total field increased from 5 to 8 nT
and Bz was +/- 8 nT. Phi remained mostly negative. Solar wind speeds
increased from about 525 to 600 km/s.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced this period, with
enhancements on 19 May due to glancing influences from a CME that left
the Sun on 16 May event. Conditions are expected to become mildly
enhanced again on 21 May from a solar sector boundary crossing ahead of
an approaching positive polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (+CH
HSS).

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field reached active levels late in the period after a
weak shock enhancement.

.Forecast...
Isolated periods of up to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming are
anticipated on 19 May due to glancing influences from the 16 May CME.
The geomagnetic field is expected to return to quiet to unsettled levels
on 20 and 21 May, due to lingering CME effects on 20 May and a projected
solar sector boundary crossing on 21 May.


27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2026 May 18     105          21          5
2026 May 19     110          21          5
2026 May 20     115           8          3
2026 May 21     115          10          3
2026 May 22     110           8          3
2026 May 23     112           5          2
2026 May 24     112           5          2
2026 May 25     115           5          2
2026 May 26     115           5          2
2026 May 27     115          12          4
2026 May 28     120          10          3
2026 May 29     125           8          3
2026 May 30     130           8          3
2026 May 31     135           8          3
2026 Jun 01     130           5          2
2026 Jun 02     130           5          2
2026 Jun 03     130           5          2
2026 Jun 04     125          12          4
2026 Jun 05     120           5          2
2026 Jun 06     115           5          2
2026 Jun 07     110           5          2
2026 Jun 08     105           5          2
2026 Jun 09     105          10          3
2026 Jun 10     100           5          2
2026 Jun 11      95          30          6
2026 Jun 12      95          25          5
2026 Jun 13      95          12          4


  • GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
    It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

  • DATA SOURCES: Learn more
    Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

  • 'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
    These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

    The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

    Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

  • Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
    The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

    Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

  • Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
    The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.
  • DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

    The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

    Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

  • ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

    ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
  • GOES Satalites: Learn more

    GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

  • Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
    Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
    These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
    There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.
  • User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
    If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
    Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

 

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.


v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
 
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
 
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
 
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
 
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)

  Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey