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Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5219
Issue Time: 2026 Jan 12 2256 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2026 Jan 12 2245 UTC
Valid To: 2026 Jan 13 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Comment: Re-issue of Warning from 12/2245 UTC for bookkeeping purposes.
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK05
Serial Number: 2171
Issue Time: 2026 Jan 12 2245 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2026 Jan 12 2245 UTC
Valid To: 2026 Jan 13 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 3598
Issue Time: 2026 Jan 12 1101 UTC

ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Threshold Reached: 2026 Jan 12 1040 UTC
Station: GOES-19
Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5218
Issue Time: 2026 Jan 12 0902 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 5217
Valid From: 2026 Jan 10 0732 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2026 Jan 12 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.


Solar-terrestrial indices for 12 January follow.
Solar flux 113 and estimated planetary A-index 18.
The estimated planetary K-index at 0000 UTC on 13 January was 4.33.

Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor.
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level occurred.

Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be minor.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are expected.


Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 11 Jan 031
Estimated Ap 12 Jan 017
Predicted Ap 13 Jan-15 Jan 018-012-008

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jan-15 Jan
Active                40/35/25
Minor storm           30/25/05
Moderate storm        10/05/01
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 13 Jan - 15 Jan
             Jan 13    Jan 14    Jan 15
00-03UT        3.00      3.67      2.33
03-06UT        3.67      3.00      3.00
06-09UT        2.00      3.00      2.00
09-12UT        2.00      2.67      2.00
12-15UT        3.00      2.00      1.67
15-18UT        4.00      2.33      2.00
18-21UT        4.00      2.00      2.00
21-00UT        3.67      2.00      2.33


Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 12-Jan 14 2026 is 4.33 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 12-Jan 14 2026

             Jan 12       Jan 13       Jan 14
00-03UT       3.33         3.00         3.67
03-06UT       4.33         3.67         3.00
06-09UT       3.67         2.00         3.00
09-12UT       2.67         2.00         2.67
12-15UT       3.33         3.00         2.00
15-18UT       3.33         4.00         2.33
18-21UT       2.67         4.00         2.00
21-00UT       2.33         3.67         2.00

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 12-Jan 14 2026

              Jan 12  Jan 13  Jan 14
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Jan 11 2026 2314 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 12-Jan 14 2026

              Jan 12        Jan 13        Jan 14
R1-R2           25%           25%           25%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
over 12-14 Jan due to the flare potential of an eruptive region on the
Suns E limb.


Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels with an isolated, long-duration
M3.3 flare from just beyond the ESE limb. Region 4336 (S09W18,
Eao/beta-gamma) produced the majority of the flare activity on disk,
including an impulsive C3.0/Sf flare at 11/1418 UTC and an impulsive
C5.2/SF flare at 12/1012 UTC. This region continued to exhibit decay,
mainly in its trailing spots. Region 4340 (N13E45, Dao/beta) continued
to exhibit growth after it was numbered. No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares
(R1/R2-Minor/Moderate) over 12-14 Jan.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels at 12/1040 UTC.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels,
and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at
background levels, over 12-14 Jan.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected waning influence from a CME that left
the Sun on 08 Jan. Total magnetic field strength decreased from 10nT to
~6nT over the past 24 hours. The Bz component was primarily oriented
southward with a maximum deflection of -10 nT observed early in the
reporting period. Solar wind speeds were observed mostly between 500-550
km/s.

.Forecast...
Elevated solar wind parameters are expected to continue through 14 Jan
as enhancements from the 08 Jan CME wane and weaker, yet still elevated,
CH HSS influence becomes the dominant feature in the solar wind.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field reached G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels under
waning CME influence.

.Forecast...
There remains a chance for geomagnetic field activity to reach G1
(Minor) geomagnetic storm levels early on 12 Jan under waning CME
effects. Unsettled to active levels are likely over 13-14 Jan as
influence from a negative polarity coronal hole sets in.


27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2026 Jan 12     110          28          6
2026 Jan 13     110          18          4
2026 Jan 14     112          12          4
2026 Jan 15     110           8          3
2026 Jan 16     108           8          3
2026 Jan 17     106           5          2
2026 Jan 18     106           5          2
2026 Jan 19     110          18          4
2026 Jan 20     115          15          4
2026 Jan 21     125          12          4
2026 Jan 22     135           8          3
2026 Jan 23     140           6          2
2026 Jan 24     135           6          2
2026 Jan 25     135           6          2
2026 Jan 26     135           6          2
2026 Jan 27     130          10          3
2026 Jan 28     125          15          4
2026 Jan 29     125          25          5
2026 Jan 30     130          12          4
2026 Jan 31     130          10          3
2026 Feb 01     125           5          2
2026 Feb 02     120           5          2
2026 Feb 03     115           5          2
2026 Feb 04     110          15          4
2026 Feb 05     105          12          4
2026 Feb 06     105          10          3
2026 Feb 07     110           8          3


  • GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
    It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

  • DATA SOURCES: Learn more
    Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

  • 'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
    These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

    The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

    Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

  • Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
    The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

    Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

  • Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
    The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.
  • DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

    The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

    Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

  • ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

    ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
  • GOES Satalites: Learn more

    GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

  • Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
    Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
    These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
    There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.
  • User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
    If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
    Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

 

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.


v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
 
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
 
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
 
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
 
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)

  Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey