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27 Day

Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 3636
Issue Time: 2026 Feb 27 0459 UTC

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 3635
Begin Time: 2026 Feb 23 1045 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 7303 pfu
Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

Solar-terrestrial indices for 27 February follow.
Solar flux 139 and estimated planetary A-index 10.
The estimated planetary K-index at 0300 UTC on 28 February was 1.67.

No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.

Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 26 Feb 018
Estimated Ap 27 Feb 012
Predicted Ap 28 Feb-02 Mar 010-018-016

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Feb-02 Mar
Active                30/40/35
Minor storm           05/30/25
Moderate storm        01/05/05
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 28 Feb - 02 Mar
             Feb 28    Mar 01    Mar 02
00-03UT        3.00      3.33      3.33
03-06UT        2.67      4.33      3.67
06-09UT        1.67      4.00      3.00
09-12UT        1.67      3.00      2.67
12-15UT        1.33      2.67      3.00
15-18UT        1.00      2.67      3.00
18-21UT        2.67      3.00      3.33
21-00UT        3.33      3.00      3.00

Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 28-Mar 02 2026 is 4.33 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 28-Mar 02 2026

             Feb 28       Mar 01       Mar 02
00-03UT       3.00         3.33         3.33
03-06UT       2.67         4.33         3.67
06-09UT       1.67         4.00         3.00
09-12UT       1.67         3.00         2.67
12-15UT       1.33         2.67         3.00
15-18UT       1.00         2.67         3.00
18-21UT       2.67         3.00         3.33
21-00UT       3.33         3.00         3.00

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 28-Mar 02 2026

              Feb 28  Mar 01  Mar 02
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 28-Mar 02 2026

              Feb 28        Mar 01        Mar 02
R1-R2           25%           25%           25%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: There exists a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts over 28 Feb - 02 Mar.

Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. The strongest event of the period
was a C3.5 flare at 27/1259 UTC from new Region 4381 (N08E77,
Hax/alpha). There are currently four numbered regions on the visible
disk. Region 4380 (S20E60, Dao/beta-gamma) remained magnetically complex
with mixed polarities in its intermediate area. No Earth-directed CMEs
were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels through 02 Mar, with a
chance for isolated M-class activity (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the day, with a peak of 11,800 pfu at 27/1535 UTC.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at high
levels on 28 Feb before returning to normal to moderate levels on 01
Mar. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at
background levels through 01 Mar.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected persistent, yet weakening influence of a
negative polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (-CH HSS). Solar wind
speeds decreased from just under 550 km/s to begin the period to end the
period around 430 km/s. Total magnetic field (Bt) averaged near 4 nT,
the Bz component was variable between +/- 4 nT, and the Phi angle
remained predominantly in a negative (towards the Sun) orientation.

.Forecast...
Enhanced solar wind conditions are likely late on 28 Feb through 02 Mar
due to the anticipated arrival of a CME that left the Sun on 25 Feb,
followed by the onset of positive polarity CH HSS influences.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels due to waning
negative polarity CH HSS influences.

.Forecast...
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to continue at quiet to unsettled
levels through 28 Mar. Active conditions are expected on 01-02 Mar, with
a chance for G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming periods, due to the
anticipated arrival of a CME from 25 Feb, followed by the onset of
positive polarity CH HSS influences.

27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2026 Feb 23     112          20          5
2026 Feb 24     115          12          4
2026 Feb 25     118          10          3
2026 Feb 26     120           5          2
2026 Feb 27     122           5          2
2026 Feb 28     122           5          2
2026 Mar 01     122           5          2
2026 Mar 02     125           5          2
2026 Mar 03     125           5          2
2026 Mar 04     125           5          2
2026 Mar 05     125          15          4
2026 Mar 06     130          15          4
2026 Mar 07     130           8          3
2026 Mar 08     130           5          2
2026 Mar 09     125           8          3
2026 Mar 10     122          18          5
2026 Mar 11     120           8          3
2026 Mar 12     118          12          4
2026 Mar 13     116          12          4
2026 Mar 14     116          20          5
2026 Mar 15     116          18          4
2026 Mar 16     115          12          4
2026 Mar 17     115          10          3
2026 Mar 18     115          10          3
2026 Mar 19     112          12          4
2026 Mar 20     110          18          5
2026 Mar 21     110          38          6

Save as 'My Presets'

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.
From Date: (YYYY-MM-DD HH:MM). Leave empty for real-time.

Range: (in hours, WARNING 1 hour = ~10KB of data)
Local Time Zone:
Enable Forecast / Timeshift (Recommended) Enable Fixed Y Axis Values Combine Y Series (B*, Proton, Dyn Preasure & Kp). Show Axis Titles Show Graph Legend (Keys) Enable Auto Update (Range will be reduced to 2 hours) Enable Night Vision Red Theme

DATA SOURCES: Learn more
Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.
'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

AF Index (Experemental) AF Community Activity (Hits)
Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

SWPC Kp (Observation)
SWPC Kp (Prediction) GeoSpace Kp (Prediction) Wing Kp (Legacy : Date < 22/06/18)
Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.

Northern Hemisphere (Aurora Borealis) Southern Hemisphere (Aurora Australis)
DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

Mag Bt (Total Strength) Mag Bx (X Axis) Mag By (Y Axis) Mag Bz (Z Axis) Solar Wind Speed Proton Density Dynamic Pressure (Calculated)
ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
Show ACE (When enabled the forecasting / timeshift feature will be disabled)
GOES Satalites: Learn more

GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

Primary Secondary Variation (Pri - Sec)
Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.

Macquarie Island (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Mawson (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Canberra (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Ruru Obseratory (www.ruruobseratory.org.nz / NZ) Aurora Forecast #1 (Hobart) Aurora Forecast #2 (Hobart) Aurora Forecast #3 (Hobart)
User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.

v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)

v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.

v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).

v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.

> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)
Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

DATA SOURCES: Learn more Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

DATA SOURCES: Learn more
Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.