Aurora Forecast

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27 Day

Alerts:
none

Solar-terrestrial indices for 12 September follow.
Solar flux 114 and estimated planetary A-index 8.
The estimated planetary K-index at 0900 UTC on 13 September was 2.67.

No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.

Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 11 Sep 010
Estimated Ap 12 Sep 008
Predicted Ap 13 Sep-15 Sep 008-018-015

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Sep-15 Sep
Active                25/35/35
Minor storm           10/25/25
Moderate storm        01/10/10
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 13 Sep - 15 Sep
             Sep 13    Sep 14    Sep 15
00-03UT        1.67      3.00      3.00
03-06UT        1.33      3.67      4.00
06-09UT        1.33      2.67      3.67
09-12UT        1.33      2.67      2.67
12-15UT        1.33      3.67      2.00
15-18UT        2.00      4.00      1.67
18-21UT        2.67      3.67      2.67
21-00UT        3.00      3.00      3.00

Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 13-Sep 15 2025 is 4.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 13-Sep 15 2025

             Sep 13       Sep 14       Sep 15
00-03UT       1.67         3.00         3.00
03-06UT       1.33         3.67         4.00
06-09UT       1.33         2.67         3.67
09-12UT       1.33         2.67         2.67
12-15UT       1.33         3.67         2.00
15-18UT       2.00         4.00         1.67
18-21UT       2.67         3.67         2.67
21-00UT       3.00         3.00         3.00

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 13-Sep 15 2025

              Sep 13  Sep 14  Sep 15
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 13-Sep 15 2025

              Sep 13        Sep 14        Sep 15
R1-R2           20%           20%           20%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts through 15 Sep.

Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at very low levels. All five active regions on the
disk were either stable or in decay. A large prominence eruption was
observed near S50W90 at ~12/1445 UTC, but the associated CME is not
Earth-directed.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to reach low levels, with a slight chance for
an isolated M-flare (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate), through 15 Sep.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux exceeded 1,000 pfu briefly late in
the day, but did not meet the alert criteria for high levels. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to reach high levels on
13-14 Sep, before decreasing to normal to moderate levels on 15 Sep in
response to elevated geomagnetic activity. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux is expected to persist at background levels through 15 Sep.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected the waning influences of a positive
polarity CH HSS. Total field ranged between 5-8 nT, while the Bz
component varied between +/-6 nT. Solar wind speeds were steady,
averaging around 400 km/s. The phi angle remained positive.

.Forecast...
The solar wind environment is likely to become enhanced late on 13 Sep
through 15 Sep due to CIR effects followed by negative polarity CH HSS
influences. There is a chance to see some weak influence from the 11 Sep
CME late 14 Sep through early 15 Sep as it passes in close proximity to
Earth.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet and unsettled under waning positive
polarity CH HSS influences.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet and unsettled on 13 Sep
with CIR effects likely late in the day. On 14-15 Sep, periods of active
conditions are likely, with a chance for G1 (Minor) storm periods, due
to negative polarity CH HSS influences. There is a chance to see some
weak influence from the 11 Sep CME late 14 Sep through early 15 Sep as
it passes in close proximity to Earth.

27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2025 Sep 08     135          12          4
2025 Sep 09     135           8          3
2025 Sep 10     130           8          3
2025 Sep 11     125           5          2
2025 Sep 12     125           5          2
2025 Sep 13     120           5          2
2025 Sep 14     125          12          4
2025 Sep 15     130          20          5
2025 Sep 16     135          15          4
2025 Sep 17     135           8          3
2025 Sep 18     140           8          3
2025 Sep 19     145           8          3
2025 Sep 20     145           5          2
2025 Sep 21     150           5          2
2025 Sep 22     150           5          2
2025 Sep 23     150           5          2
2025 Sep 24     155           5          2
2025 Sep 25     155           5          2
2025 Sep 26     155           5          2
2025 Sep 27     160           5          2
2025 Sep 28     155          12          4
2025 Sep 29     150          15          4
2025 Sep 30     150           8          3
2025 Oct 01     145           5          2
2025 Oct 02     140           5          2
2025 Oct 03     140          15          4
2025 Oct 04     140          12          4

Save as 'My Presets'

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.
From Date: (YYYY-MM-DD HH:MM). Leave empty for real-time.

Range: (in hours, WARNING 1 hour = ~10KB of data)
Local Time Zone:
Enable Forecast / Timeshift (Recommended) Enable Fixed Y Axis Values Combine Y Series (B*, Proton, Dyn Preasure & Kp). Show Axis Titles Show Graph Legend (Keys) Enable Auto Update (Range will be reduced to 2 hours) Enable Night Vision Red Theme

DATA SOURCES: Learn more
Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.
'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

AF Index (Experemental) AF Community Activity (Hits)
Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

SWPC Kp (Observation)
SWPC Kp (Prediction) GeoSpace Kp (Prediction) Wing Kp (Legacy : Date < 22/06/18)
Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.

Northern Hemisphere (Aurora Borealis) Southern Hemisphere (Aurora Australis)
DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

Mag Bt (Total Strength) Mag Bx (X Axis) Mag By (Y Axis) Mag Bz (Z Axis) Solar Wind Speed Proton Density Dynamic Pressure (Calculated)
ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
Show ACE (When enabled the forecasting / timeshift feature will be disabled)
GOES Satalites: Learn more

GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

Primary Secondary Variation (Pri - Sec)
Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.

Macquarie Island (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Mawson (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Canberra (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Ruru Obseratory (www.ruruobseratory.org.nz / NZ) Aurora Forecast #1 (Hobart) Aurora Forecast #2 (Hobart) Aurora Forecast #3 (Hobart)
User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.

v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)

v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.

v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).

v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.

> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)
Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

DATA SOURCES: Learn more Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

DATA SOURCES: Learn more
Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.