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Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 3584
Issue Time: 2025 Dec 25 0501 UTC

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 3583
Begin Time: 2025 Dec 21 1425 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 7351 pfu
Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5197
Issue Time: 2025 Dec 24 2052 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 5196
Valid From: 2025 Dec 21 0240 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2025 Dec 25 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.


Solar-terrestrial indices for 24 December follow.
Solar flux 134 and estimated planetary A-index 21.
The estimated planetary K-index at 1500 UTC on 25 December was 2.33.

No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.


Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 23 Dec 021
Estimated Ap 24 Dec 024
Predicted Ap 25 Dec-27 Dec 012-010-005

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Dec-27 Dec
Active                35/20/10
Minor storm           20/05/01
Moderate storm        05/01/01
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 25 Dec - 27 Dec
             Dec 25    Dec 26    Dec 27
00-03UT        3.67      2.00      1.67
03-06UT        2.67      2.67      1.67
06-09UT        2.67      2.33      1.33
09-12UT        3.00      2.33      1.33
12-15UT        2.67      2.33      1.33
15-18UT        1.67      2.33      1.33
18-21UT        1.67      2.33      1.67
21-00UT        2.67      2.67      1.33


Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 25-Dec 27 2025 is 3.33 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 25-Dec 27 2025

             Dec 25       Dec 26       Dec 27
00-03UT       3.33         2.00         1.67
03-06UT       3.33         2.67         1.67
06-09UT       3.00         2.33         1.33
09-12UT       2.33         2.33         1.33
12-15UT       2.67         2.33         1.33
15-18UT       1.67         2.33         1.33
18-21UT       1.67         2.33         1.67
21-00UT       2.67         2.67         1.33

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Dec 25-Dec 27 2025

              Dec 25  Dec 26  Dec 27
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Dec 25-Dec 27 2025

              Dec 25        Dec 26        Dec 27
R1-R2           40%           45%           45%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: There is an increasing chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate)
radio blackouts over the next three days.


Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. Only low level C-class flaring was
observed from Regions 4317 (N12E14, Eai/beta-gamma), 4319 (S09E37,
Dro/beta), and 4321 (S10W16, Dai/beta-delta). Region 4317 exhibited
decay in its trailing spots and consolidation of the leader spots.
Region 4321 continued to grow and appears to have developed a delta
magnetic configuration. New flux emergence was observed in the NW
quadrant and was numbered 4322 (N13W56, Cro/beta). The rest of the
numbered regions were either stable or in decay.

No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be at low levels with an increasing chance
for M-class flares over 25-27 Dec due to the return of old Regions 4294
(S15, L=284) and 4296 (S15, L=272).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak
flux of 7,350 pfu observed at 24/1555 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on
25-27 Dec. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at
background levels through 27 Dec.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were enhanced but in decline as CH HSS effects
began to diminish. Solar wind speed decreased from approximately 700
km/s to near 600 km/s. Total field ranged from 1-6 nT while the Bz
component was between +3/-5 nT. Phi angle was mostly positive.

.Forecast...
Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to prevail over 25 Dec as
influence from the positive polarity coronal hole persists. Waning
conditions are expected on 26-27 Dec.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field reached unsettled to active levels due to effects
from a positive polarity coronal hole.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to reach active conditions on 25 Dec,
under continued CH HSS effects. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected
on 26 Dec under waning HSS conditions, becoming mostly quiet on 27 Dec.


27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2025 Dec 22     130          28          5
2025 Dec 23     135          22          5
2025 Dec 24     140          20          4
2025 Dec 25     145          15          4
2025 Dec 26     150          10          3
2025 Dec 27     155           5          2
2025 Dec 28     155           5          2
2025 Dec 29     160           8          3
2025 Dec 30     170          30          6
2025 Dec 31     170          25          5
2026 Jan 01     165          10          4
2026 Jan 02     160          10          4
2026 Jan 03     160           8          3
2026 Jan 04     160           5          2
2026 Jan 05     160           5          2
2026 Jan 06     160           5          2
2026 Jan 07     140           5          2
2026 Jan 08     130           5          2
2026 Jan 09     125          15          4
2026 Jan 10     120          10          4
2026 Jan 11     120           5          2
2026 Jan 12     120          10          4
2026 Jan 13     120          15          4
2026 Jan 14     115          15          4
2026 Jan 15     120           5          2
2026 Jan 16     120           5          2
2026 Jan 17     125          20          5


  • GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
    It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

  • DATA SOURCES: Learn more
    Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

  • 'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
    These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

    The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

    Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

  • Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
    The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

    Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

  • Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
    The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.
  • DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

    The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

    Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

  • ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

    ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
  • GOES Satalites: Learn more

    GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

  • Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
    Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
    These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
    There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.
  • User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
    If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
    Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

 

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.


v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
 
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
 
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
 
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
 
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)

  Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey