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Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: WATA30
Serial Number: 278
Issue Time: 2026 Jul 02 0935 UTC

WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G2 Predicted
Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Jul 02:  None (Below G1)   Jul 03:  G2 (Moderate)   Jul 04:  G2 (Moderate)
THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT

Comment:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.


Solar-terrestrial indices for 02 July follow.
Solar flux 203 and estimated planetary A-index 4.
The estimated planetary K-index at 0000 UTC on 03 July was 0.67.

Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor.
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level occurred.

Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be moderate.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G2 level are likely.
Radio blackouts reaching the R2 level are likely.


Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 01 Jul 014
Estimated Ap 02 Jul 005
Predicted Ap 03 Jul-05 Jul 040-030-018

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jul-05 Jul
Active                20/25/30
Minor storm           30/30/30
Moderate storm        35/30/10
Strong-Extreme storm  10/10/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 03 Jul - 05 Jul
             Jul 03    Jul 04    Jul 05
00-03UT        2.33      5.67      2.67
03-06UT        2.33      4.67      2.33
06-09UT        4.67      4.33      2.33
09-12UT        5.67      4.33      2.33
12-15UT        5.67      3.67      2.33
15-18UT        4.67      3.67      2.33
18-21UT        4.67      3.33      4.67
21-00UT        5.00      2.33      5.00


Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 02-Jul 04 2026 is 5.67 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 02-Jul 04 2026

             Jul 02       Jul 03       Jul 04
00-03UT       2.00         2.33         5.67 (G2)
03-06UT       1.33         2.33         4.67 (G1)
06-09UT       1.00         4.67 (G1)    4.33
09-12UT       1.00         5.67 (G2)    4.33
12-15UT       1.33         5.67 (G2)    3.67
15-18UT       2.33         4.67 (G1)    3.67
18-21UT       2.33         4.67 (G1)    3.33
21-00UT       2.67         5.00 (G1)    2.33

Rationale: Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 02 Jul. G1-G2
conditions are likely by 03-04 Jul due to the anticipated arrival of the
30 Jun CME associated with the X1.1 flare.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 02-Jul 04 2026

              Jul 02  Jul 03  Jul 04
S1 or greater   20%     20%     20%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar
radiation as Regions 4478 and 4479 continue to develop and move westward
into a more favorable position to connect with Earth.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Jul 01 2026 2309 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 02-Jul 04 2026

              Jul 02        Jul 03        Jul 04
R1-R2           70%           70%           70%
R3 or greater   20%           20%           20%

Rationale: Isolated R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely
with a slight chance for R3 (Strong) or greater events primarily due to
the potential of Regions 4478 and 4479.


Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
A series of M-class flares kept solar activity at high levels, with
the majority of them from Region 4479 (N17W45, Eki/beta-gamma-delta).
Region 4478 (S05W27, Fki/beta-gamma-delta)produced the largest flare of
the period, an M8.7 at 01/2309 UTC.

An earlier flare from Region 4479, an M1.3 at 01/1008 UTC accompanied by
a 1N H-alpha flare which peaked at 01/1211 UTC, appears to have been
associated with dimming and a slow moving CME with an Earth-directed
component first identified in CCOR-1 imagery around 01/1400 UTC. An
additional CME was observed in C2 imagery beginning near 02/0236 UTC.
This CME is presumed to be associated with a long duration M4.2 flare
from Region 4479. Modeling efforts suggest this CME will catch up to and
overtake the one mentioned above with an estimated arrival on late 05 to
early 06 July.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to remain at moderate levels (R1-R2,
Minor-Moderate) with a slight chance for X-class flares (R3-Strong),
particularly from Region 4479.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was
moderate. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background
levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at moderate
levels, with a slight chance for high levels during the period. There is
a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event (S1-Minor) due to
the flare potential of Regions 4479, and 4478.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were slightly enhanced with CME passage. Total
field strength gradually decreased from 15 to 9 nT. The Bz component was
north. Solar wind speeds averaged near 400 km/s.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to be relatively nominal in the wake
of the CME from the 27th. The CME from the 30th is expected to arrive
early on 03 July, bringing disturbed solar wind conditions that are
expected to last into 04 July. There is enough uncertainty around the
CME timing that an arrival late on 02 July is possible.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.

.Forecast...
CME arrival from the event on 30 June is expected to bring G1-G2
(minor-moderate) geomagnetic storm conditions beginning on 03 July and
likely continuing into 04 July.


27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2026 Jun 29     175          10          5
2026 Jun 30     180          25          5
2026 Jul 01     175          12          4
2026 Jul 02     170           8          3
2026 Jul 03     175           5          2
2026 Jul 04     170           5          2
2026 Jul 05     160           5          2
2026 Jul 06     160           5          2
2026 Jul 07     155           5          2
2026 Jul 08     155          12          4
2026 Jul 09     150          12          4
2026 Jul 10     140           8          3
2026 Jul 11     140           5          2
2026 Jul 12     135           5          2
2026 Jul 13     130           5          2
2026 Jul 14     135           5          2
2026 Jul 15     140           5          2
2026 Jul 16     140          10          3
2026 Jul 17     145           8          3
2026 Jul 18     150           5          2
2026 Jul 19     145           5          2
2026 Jul 20     145           5          2
2026 Jul 21     145           5          2
2026 Jul 22     150          15          5
2026 Jul 23     155          12          4
2026 Jul 24     155           8          3
2026 Jul 25     155           8          3


  • GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
    It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

  • DATA SOURCES: Learn more
    Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

  • 'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
    These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

    The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

    Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

  • Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
    The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

    Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

  • Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
    The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.
  • DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

    The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

    Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

  • ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

    ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
  • GOES Satalites: Learn more

    GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

  • Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
    Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
    These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
    There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.
  • User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
    If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
    Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

 

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.


v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
 
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
 
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
 
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
 
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)

  Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey