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27 Day

Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: SUMPX1
Serial Number: 130
Issue Time: 2026 May 27 0228 UTC

SUMMARY: Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 10pfu
Begin Time: 2026 May 27 0015 UTC
Maximum Time: 2026 May 26 0110 UTC
End Time: 2026 May 26 0425 UTC
Maximum 10MeV Flux: 23 pfu
Noaa Scale: S1 - Minor

Comment:
NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor

Space Weather Message Code: SUMPX1
Serial Number: 129
Issue Time: 2026 May 27 0227 UTC

SUMMARY: Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 10pfu
Begin Time: 2026 May 26 0015 UTC
Maximum Time: 2026 May 26 0110 UTC
End Time: 2026 May 26 0425 UTC
Maximum 10MeV Flux: 23 pfu
Noaa Scale: S1 - Minor

Comment:
NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK04
Serial Number: 2658
Issue Time: 2026 May 27 0001 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2026 May 26 2359 UTC
Synoptic Period: 2100-2400
Active Warning: YES

Comment:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5347
Issue Time: 2026 May 26 2138 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2026 May 26 2137 UTC
Valid To: 2026 May 27 0600 UTC
Warning Conditions: Onset

Comment:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 1494
Issue Time: 2026 May 26 1422 UTC

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2026 May 26 1244 UTC
Estimate Velocity: 650 km/s

Comment: SVI; updated with correct start time
SVI; updated with correct start time

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 1494
Issue Time: 2026 May 26 1420 UTC

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2026 May 26 1420 UTC
Estimate Velocity: 650 km/s

Comment: SVI
SVI

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 1490
Issue Time: 2026 May 26 1419 UTC

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2026 May 26 1244 UTC
Estimate Velocity: 650 km/s

Comment: SVI
SVI

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 1490
Issue Time: 2026 May 26 1419 UTC

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2026 May 26 1244 UTC
Estimate Velocity: 650 km/s

Comment: SVI
SVI

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 1490
Issue Time: 2026 May 26 1419 UTC

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2026 May 26 1244 UTC
Estimate Velocity: 650 km/s

Comment: SVI
SVI

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 1490
Issue Time: 2026 May 26 1419 UTC

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2026 May 26 1244 UTC
Estimate Velocity: 650 km/s

Comment: SVI
SVI

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 1490
Issue Time: 2026 May 26 1419 UTC

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2026 May 26 1244 UTC
Estimate Velocity: 650 km/s

Comment: SVI
SVI

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 1491
Issue Time: 2026 May 26 1419 UTC

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2026 May 26 1244 UTC
Estimate Velocity: 650 km/s

Comment: SVI
SVI

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 1492
Issue Time: 2026 May 26 1419 UTC

CANCELLED ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Cancel Serial Number: 1491
Original Issued Time: 2026-05-26T14:19:00
Cancelled 2026-05-26 14:19 by Forecaster User Duplicate.
Cancelled 2026-05-26 14:19 by Forecaster User Duplicate.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 1493
Issue Time: 2026 May 26 1419 UTC

CANCELLED ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Cancel Serial Number: 1490
Original Issued Time: 2026-05-26T14:19:00
Cancelled 2026-05-26 14:19 by Forecaster User Duplicate.
Cancelled 2026-05-26 14:19 by Forecaster User Duplicate.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 1490
Issue Time: 2026 May 26 1418 UTC

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2026 May 26 1244 UTC
Estimate Velocity: 650 km/s

Comment: SVI
SVI

Solar-terrestrial indices for 26 May follow.
Solar flux 141 and estimated planetary A-index 8.
The estimated planetary K-index at 0300 UTC on 27 May was 2.33.

Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor.
Solar radiation storms reaching the S1 level occurred.

No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.

Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 25 May 008
Estimated Ap 26 May 006
Predicted Ap 27 May-29 May 012-012-006

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 May-29 May
Active                35/35/25
Minor storm           10/10/10
Moderate storm        05/05/01
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 27 May - 29 May
             May 27    May 28    May 29
00-03UT        2.67      3.00      1.67
03-06UT        3.67      3.67      2.00
06-09UT        3.00      3.00      1.67
09-12UT        2.33      2.33      1.33
12-15UT        2.00      2.00      1.33
15-18UT        2.33      1.67      1.67
18-21UT        2.33      2.67      2.00
21-00UT        2.67      1.67      2.33

Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 27-May 29 2026 is 3.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown May 27-May 29 2026

             May 27       May 28       May 29
00-03UT       3.33         3.00         1.67
03-06UT       3.67         3.67         2.00
06-09UT       3.00         3.00         1.67
09-12UT       2.33         2.33         1.33
12-15UT       2.33         2.00         1.33
15-18UT       2.33         1.67         1.67
18-21UT       2.67         2.67         2.00
21-00UT       3.00         1.67         2.33

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-19 over the past 24 hours, was
above S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 27-May 29 2026

              May 27  May 28  May 29
S1 or greater   10%      1%      1%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar
radiation storms on 27 May as flux levels are still slightly elevated.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for May 27-May 29 2026

              May 27        May 28        May 29
R1-R2           40%           40%           40%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
through 29 May due to the flaring potential on the visible disk.

Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at low levels. The largest event of the period
was a C9.7 flare at 26/1238 UTC from Region 4446 (S16E43,
Fho/beta-gamma). This region was responsible for the majority of the
flare activity, though Region 4448 (S08E42, Dso/beta) produced a C2.4/Sf
flare at 26/0717 UTC and several occulted flares were observed from
beyond the northeast limb.

There are nine numbered regions on the visible disk. As the sunspot
complex in the southeast rotated further away from limb foreshortening
effects, it was determined that Regions 4451 (S16, L=122) and 4446 were
part of the same large, complex sunspot group and were consolidated
under Region 4446 with its complex gamma configuration. Region 4447
(S16W02, Dsi/beta) remained stable in physical extent with some minor
consolidation noted in its trailing spots. Region 4448 (S08E42,
Dao/beta) was stable in size, though new flux emergence was observed.
Region 4452 (N09W07, Cro/beta) was newly numbered this period following
rapid growth into a bipolar group. The remaining regions on the visible
disk were relatively simple and were stable or in gradual decay.

A relatively slow CME was observed off the southeast limb, first visible
in LASCO C2 imagery at 26/0436 UTC. STEREO-A COR2 imagery at 26/0438 UTC
confirmed this to be a front-sided eruption but the source is uncertain.
Analysis indicates it possesses no Earth-directed component.
Additionally, a Type II radio emission beginning at 26/1244 UTC is
believed to be associated with the C9.7 flare that peaked at 26/1238
UTC, with an estimated shock velocity of 650 km/s. However, any
associated CME was too faint or narrow to be seen. No other
Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels through 29
May. There is an increasing chance for isolated M-class flares
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) due to the eruptive potential of the various
sunspot groups in the southeast and the anticipated rotation of one or
several active regions onto the visible disk.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at low
to moderate levels, with a peak flux of 455 pfu observed at 26/1715 UTC.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit remained
elevated, driven by a large far-sided partial halo CME first seen in
GOES-19 CCOR-1 imagery at 25/2200 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV flux
crossed the S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm threshold at 26/0010 UTC,
reaching a peak flux of 238 pfu at 26/0110 UTC before entering a slow,
gradual decline to end the period near 1 pfu.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at low to
moderate levels through 29 May, as approaching high-speed stream
enhancements are not anticipated to be sufficient to raise flux levels.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue its gradual
decline toward background levels. There remains a chance for proton flux
to return to S1 (Minor) or greater levels, primarily due to potential
further eruptive events from beyond the limb with enhancements from
current visible regions not expected given their complexity and
locations on the disk.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were slightly above ambient background levels,
likely reflecting weak negative polarity coronal hole high-speed stream
(-CH HSS) influences. Total magnetic field (Bt) was variable with a a
peak of 10 nT but was around 6 nT for most of the period. The
north-south (Bz) component was mostly northward but deviated south late
in the period reaching a maximum deflection of -7 nT. Solar wind speeds
were steady around 400 km/s for most of the period before an enhancement
at approximately 26/1800 UTC, where a slight deflection in the phi angle
and a sharp drop in Bz to its lowest values of the period were
accompanied by a minor increase in solar wind speed up to 450 km/s.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are anticipated to become enhanced on 27 May ahead
with the arrival of a relatively weak -CH HSS. High-speed stream
influences are likely to persist through 28 May before trending back
toward background conditions on 29 May.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field remained at quiet levels, with an isolated active
period late due to slightly enhanced parameters and some periods of
southward Bz.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is anticipated to increase to unsettled to active
levels 27–28 May due to the anticipated onset and influence of the -CH
HSS. A return to quiet to unsettled levels is expected on 29 May as
stream influences subside.

27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2026 May 25     140           5          2
2026 May 26     145           8          3
2026 May 27     150          12          4
2026 May 28     140          12          4
2026 May 29     140           8          3
2026 May 30     145           5          2
2026 May 31     145           5          2
2026 Jun 01     145           5          2
2026 Jun 02     145           5          2
2026 Jun 03     150           5          2
2026 Jun 04     145          15          4
2026 Jun 05     140           5          2
2026 Jun 06     135           5          2
2026 Jun 07     135           5          2
2026 Jun 08     130           5          2
2026 Jun 09     125          12          4
2026 Jun 10     130           5          2
2026 Jun 11     130          30          6
2026 Jun 12     125          25          5
2026 Jun 13     120          12          4
2026 Jun 14     115          10          3
2026 Jun 15     115           8          3
2026 Jun 16     110           5          2
2026 Jun 17     110           5          2
2026 Jun 18     110           5          2
2026 Jun 19     115           5          2
2026 Jun 20     120           5          2

Save as 'My Presets'

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.
From Date: (YYYY-MM-DD HH:MM). Leave empty for real-time.

Range: (in hours, WARNING 1 hour = ~10KB of data)
Local Time Zone:
Enable Forecast / Timeshift (Recommended) Enable Fixed Y Axis Values Combine Y Series (B*, Proton, Dyn Preasure & Kp). Show Axis Titles Show Graph Legend (Keys) Enable Auto Update (Range will be reduced to 2 hours) Enable Night Vision Red Theme

DATA SOURCES: Learn more
Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.
'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

AF Index (Experemental) AF Community Activity (Hits)
Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

SWPC Kp (Observation)
SWPC Kp (Prediction) GeoSpace Kp (Prediction) Wing Kp (Legacy : Date < 22/06/18)
Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.

Northern Hemisphere (Aurora Borealis) Southern Hemisphere (Aurora Australis)
DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

Mag Bt (Total Strength) Mag Bx (X Axis) Mag By (Y Axis) Mag Bz (Z Axis) Solar Wind Speed Proton Density Dynamic Pressure (Calculated)
ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
Show ACE (When enabled the forecasting / timeshift feature will be disabled)
GOES Satalites: Learn more

GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

Primary Secondary Variation (Pri - Sec)
Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.

Macquarie Island (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Mawson (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Canberra (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Ruru Obseratory (www.ruruobseratory.org.nz / NZ) Aurora Forecast #1 (Hobart) Aurora Forecast #2 (Hobart) Aurora Forecast #3 (Hobart)
User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.

v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)

v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.

v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).

v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.

> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)
Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

DATA SOURCES: Learn more Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

DATA SOURCES: Learn more
Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.