Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: WATA50
Serial Number: 95
Issue Time: 2025 Dec 09 2103 UTC
CANCEL WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G3 Predicted
Cancel Serial Number: 94
Original Issue Time: 2025 Dec 07 0443 UTC
Comment: Enhancement from anticipated CME did not occur
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices.
Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation - Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.
Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 3575
Issue Time: 2025 Dec 09 1210 UTC
CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 3574
Begin Time: 2025 Dec 05 1530 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 1040 pfu
Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.
Solar-terrestrial indices for 09 December follow.
Solar flux 183 and estimated planetary A-index 5.
The estimated planetary K-index at 0600 UTC on 10 December was 2.00.
Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor.
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level occurred.
Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be moderate.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are likely.
Radio blackouts reaching the R2 level are likely.
Geo Magnetic Forecast:
NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 08 Dec 002
Estimated Ap 09 Dec 055
Predicted Ap 10 Dec-12 Dec 009-009-014
NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Dec-12 Dec
Active 25/25/40
Minor storm 30/05/20
Moderate storm 30/01/01
Strong-Extreme storm 10/01/01
NOAA Kp index forecast 10 Dec - 12 Dec
Dec 10 Dec 11 Dec 12
00-03UT 2.00 1.00 3.33
03-06UT 2.00 2.00 2.00
06-09UT 3.00 2.33 2.00
09-12UT 2.00 2.33 3.00
12-15UT 2.00 2.33 2.67
15-18UT 2.00 2.33 3.00
18-21UT 3.00 2.33 3.33
21-00UT 1.33 2.67 3.33
Extended Three Day Forecast:
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 10-Dec 12 2025 is 3.33 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 10-Dec 12 2025
Dec 10 Dec 11 Dec 12
00-03UT 2.00 1.00 3.33
03-06UT 2.00 2.00 2.00
06-09UT 3.00 2.33 2.00
09-12UT 2.00 2.33 3.00
12-15UT 2.00 2.33 2.67
15-18UT 2.00 2.33 3.00
18-21UT 3.00 2.33 3.33
21-00UT 1.33 2.67 3.33
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Dec 10-Dec 12 2025
Dec 10 Dec 11 Dec 12
S1 or greater 15% 10% 5%
Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar
radiation storms on 10-11 Dec.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Dec 09 2025 0058 UTC.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Dec 10-Dec 12 2025
Dec 10 Dec 11 Dec 12
R1-R2 65% 65% 65%
R3 or greater 15% 15% 10%
Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a
slight chance for R3 (Strong) or greater events on 10-12 Dec.
Extended Space Weather Discussion:
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at moderate levels due to multiple low level M-class
flares (R1-Minor), mostly from Region 4294 (S17W54,
Ekc/beta-gamma-delta). The Region 4294 continues to show flux emergence
in its leading spots creating instability and its activity. Region 4304
(N26W23, Dao/beta) experienced growth in both its leader and trailer -
flux emergence in a weak circular formation would indicate higher flare
potential but the region has been quiet. Newly numbered Region 4305
(S25E34, Cro/beta) continues to grow and was the source of a C3.7 flare
at 09/2232 UTC. All other regions were stable or in decay.
There were no Earth-directed CMEs in coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast...
Chances for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) flare activity remain likely (65%
chance), with a slight chance (15%) or R3 (Strong) activity.
Probabilities remain elevated due to the large complex of the three
regions in the southwest part of the disk.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained elevated - hovering around
the 1,000 pfu threshold for much of the period. Electrons at
geosynchronous orbit reached a maximum of 1572 pfu. The greater than 10
MeV proton flux remained at background.
.Forecast...
Without the geoeffective positioning of any coronal hole high speed
stream until 13 Dec, electrons will continue to trend towards moderate
levels through 12 Dec.
Due the growth of Region 4294 and its favorable positioning in the west,
there remains a slight chance (15%) for an S1 (Minor) radiation storming
event. Probabilities will decrease as it moves beyond the western limb.
The prolific proton producer, Region 4299, is in decay and contributes
less to the forecast.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected a slight disturbance starting around
09/0800 UTC, it is likely due to a transient CME that had little impact
on the environment. The total interplanetary magnetic field was around 6
nT before jumping abruptly to 9 nT. The north-south (Bz) component
remained between 0 to -5 nT. Solar wind speeds averaged around 380 km/s.
The phi angle remaining in the negative (towards the Sun) orientation.
.Forecast...
Solar wind is expected to remain at nominal levels through 12 Dec,
barring any minor transients that may pass through. Impact from these
are unlikely.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field remained at quiet levels.
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at mostly quiet levels
through 12 Dec.
-Bri
27 Day Forecast:
Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2025 Dec 08 190 18 5
2025 Dec 09 190 70 7
2025 Dec 10 185 33 5
2025 Dec 11 175 10 3
2025 Dec 12 155 5 2
2025 Dec 13 140 12 4
2025 Dec 14 130 12 4
2025 Dec 15 130 8 3
2025 Dec 16 135 5 2
2025 Dec 17 135 8 3
2025 Dec 18 140 10 3
2025 Dec 19 140 8 3
2025 Dec 20 140 8 3
2025 Dec 21 140 15 5
2025 Dec 22 140 20 5
2025 Dec 23 145 20 5
2025 Dec 24 160 25 5
2025 Dec 25 170 20 5
2025 Dec 26 180 20 5
2025 Dec 27 180 15 4
2025 Dec 28 180 10 3
2025 Dec 29 175 8 3
2025 Dec 30 180 30 6
2025 Dec 31 180 25 5
2026 Jan 01 175 10 3
2026 Jan 02 170 10 3
2026 Jan 03 170 8 3
v4.16b
v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.
v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)
v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)
Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).
Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast