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Weather: TAS
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Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: SUMPX1
Serial Number: 131
Issue Time: 2026 May 27 1445 UTC

CANCELLED SUMMARY: Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 10pfu
Cancel Serial Number: 130
Original Issued Time: 2026-05-27T02:28:00
Cancelled 2026-05-27 14:44 by Forecaster User duplicate
Cancelled 2026-05-27 14:44 by Forecaster User duplicateNOAA Scale: S1 - Minor

Space Weather Message Code: SUMPX1
Serial Number: 130
Issue Time: 2026 May 27 0228 UTC

SUMMARY: Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 10pfu
Begin Time: 2026 May 27 0015 UTC
Maximum Time: 2026 May 26 0110 UTC
End Time: 2026 May 26 0425 UTC
Maximum 10MeV Flux: 23 pfu
Noaa Scale: S1 - Minor

Comment:
NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor

Space Weather Message Code: SUMPX1
Serial Number: 129
Issue Time: 2026 May 27 0227 UTC

SUMMARY: Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 10pfu
Begin Time: 2026 May 26 0015 UTC
Maximum Time: 2026 May 26 0110 UTC
End Time: 2026 May 26 0425 UTC
Maximum 10MeV Flux: 23 pfu
Noaa Scale: S1 - Minor

Comment:
NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK04
Serial Number: 2658
Issue Time: 2026 May 27 0001 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2026 May 26 2359 UTC
Synoptic Period: 2100-2400
Active Warning: YES

Comment:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5347
Issue Time: 2026 May 26 2138 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2026 May 26 2137 UTC
Valid To: 2026 May 27 0600 UTC
Warning Conditions: Onset

Comment:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.


Solar-terrestrial indices for 26 May follow.
Solar flux 141 and estimated planetary A-index 8.
The estimated planetary K-index at 1500 UTC on 27 May was 1.33.

No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.


Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 25 May 008
Estimated Ap 26 May 006
Predicted Ap 27 May-29 May 012-012-006

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 May-29 May
Active                35/35/25
Minor storm           10/10/10
Moderate storm        05/05/01
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 27 May - 29 May
             May 27    May 28    May 29
00-03UT        2.67      3.00      1.67
03-06UT        3.67      3.67      2.00
06-09UT        3.00      3.00      1.67
09-12UT        2.33      2.33      1.33
12-15UT        2.00      2.00      1.33
15-18UT        2.33      1.67      1.67
18-21UT        2.33      2.67      2.00
21-00UT        2.67      1.67      2.33


Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 27-May 29 2026 is 3.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown May 27-May 29 2026

             May 27       May 28       May 29
00-03UT       2.33         3.00         1.67
03-06UT       2.33         3.67         2.00
06-09UT       3.00         3.00         1.67
09-12UT       2.33         2.33         1.33
12-15UT       2.33         2.00         1.33
15-18UT       2.33         1.67         1.67
18-21UT       2.67         2.67         2.00
21-00UT       3.00         1.67         2.33

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-19 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 27-May 29 2026

              May 27  May 28  May 29
S1 or greater   10%      5%      5%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for a return to S1 (Minor) solar
radiation storm levels on 27 May due to the currently elevated
background proton flux.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for May 27-May 29 2026

              May 27        May 28        May 29
R1-R2           40%           40%           40%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
through 29 May due to the flaring potential of the visible disk and
regions rotating onto the eastern limb.


Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at low levels. The largest event of the period
was a C9.7 flare at 26/1238 UTC from Region 4446 (S16E29,
Fko/beta-gamma). This region was responsible for the majority of the
flare activity, though several occulted flares were observed on the
northeast limb where a new sunspot group is currently in the process of
rotating onto the visible disk. There is insufficient imagery available
to formally analyze this region, however, farside imagery and
helioseismology suggest a somewhat significant region.

There are nine numbered regions on the visible disk. Region 4447
(S16W15, Dsi/beta) remained stable in physical extent with some minor
consolidation noted in its trailing spots. Region 4452 (N09W21,
Cai/beta) continued to show rapid growth in both extent and intermediary
region. The remaining regions on the visible disk were relatively simple
and were stable or in gradual decay.

A Type II radio emission beginning at 26/1244 UTC is believed to be
associated with the C9.7 flare, with an estimated shock velocity of 650
km/s, and subsequent fieldline movement is visible in GOES/SUVI 284.
However, any associated CME was too faint or narrow to be detected in
available coronagraph imagery.

A very faint, potentially partial halo, CME is visible in LASCO C2
starting at around 26/2230 UTC, and then subsequently in GOES/CCOR1.
There is little obvious on-disk source for the eruption, and STEREO has
a data gap in that time frame, so triangulation is not possible.
Analysis is currently ongoing.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels through 29
May. There is a chance for isolated M-class flares
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) due to the eruptive potential of the various
sunspot groups in the southeast and the anticipated rotation of one or
several active regions onto the visible disk.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at low
to moderate levels, with a peak flux of 455 pfu observed at 26/1715 UTC.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit began the
period gradually decaying from the S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm
levels of the last UTC day, driven by a large far-sided partial halo CME
first seen in GOES-19 CCOR-1 imagery at 25/2200 UTC. However, at
approximately 26/1715 UTC, this gradual decay slowed and the greater
than 10 MeV flux averaged roughly 1 pfu for the remainder of the
reporting period.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at low to
moderate levels through 29 May, as approaching high-speed stream
enhancements are not anticipated to be sufficient to raise flux levels.
While the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue
declining toward background levels, there remains a chance for proton
flux to return to S1 (Minor) or greater levels on 27 May, primarily due
to potential further eruptive events and the current elevated flux
levels.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were slightly above ambient background levels,
potentially reflecting weak negative polarity coronal hole high-speed
stream (-CH HSS) influences. Total magnetic field (Bt) was variable with
a range of 2-10 nT observed during the reporting period. The north-south
(Bz) component was also highly variable, with several hours-long
southward deflections observed, occasionally reaching up to -7 nT. Solar
wind speeds ranged from ~375 km/s up to 450 km/s when a small
enhancement arrived at approximately 26/1800 UTC. The phi angle was
predominantly in the negative sector (towards the Sun) during the
reporting period.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are anticipated to remain enhanced on 27-28 May
with the arrival of a relatively weak -CH HSS, before trending back
toward background conditions on 29 May.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels, with an isolated active
period late on 26 May.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is anticipated to increase to unsettled to active
levels 27–28 May due to the anticipated onset and influence of the -CH
HSS. A return to quiet to unsettled levels is expected on 29 May as
stream influences subside.


27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2026 May 25     140           5          2
2026 May 26     145           8          3
2026 May 27     150          12          4
2026 May 28     140          12          4
2026 May 29     140           8          3
2026 May 30     145           5          2
2026 May 31     145           5          2
2026 Jun 01     145           5          2
2026 Jun 02     145           5          2
2026 Jun 03     150           5          2
2026 Jun 04     145          15          4
2026 Jun 05     140           5          2
2026 Jun 06     135           5          2
2026 Jun 07     135           5          2
2026 Jun 08     130           5          2
2026 Jun 09     125          12          4
2026 Jun 10     130           5          2
2026 Jun 11     130          30          6
2026 Jun 12     125          25          5
2026 Jun 13     120          12          4
2026 Jun 14     115          10          3
2026 Jun 15     115           8          3
2026 Jun 16     110           5          2
2026 Jun 17     110           5          2
2026 Jun 18     110           5          2
2026 Jun 19     115           5          2
2026 Jun 20     120           5          2


  • GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
    It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

  • DATA SOURCES: Learn more
    Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

  • 'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
    These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

    The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

    Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

  • Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
    The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

    Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

  • Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
    The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.
  • DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

    The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

    Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

  • ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

    ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
  • GOES Satalites: Learn more

    GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

  • Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
    Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
    These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
    There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.
  • User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
    If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
    Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

 

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.


v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
 
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
 
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
 
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
 
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)

  Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast


Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey