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Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 3571
Issue Time: 2025 Dec 05 1545 UTC

ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Threshold Reached: 2025 Dec 05 1530 UTC
Station: GOES-19
Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

Space Weather Message Code: WATA20
Serial Number: 1079
Issue Time: 2025 Dec 04 2129 UTC

WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted
Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Dec 05:  None (Below G1)   Dec 06:  None (Below G1)   Dec 07:  G1 (Minor)
THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.


Solar-terrestrial indices for 04 December follow.
Solar flux 220 and estimated planetary A-index 32.
The estimated planetary K-index at 1500 UTC on 05 December was 2.00.

No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be moderate.
Radio blackouts reaching the R2 level are expected.


Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 03 Dec 033
Estimated Ap 04 Dec 034
Predicted Ap 05 Dec-07 Dec 020-012-018

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Dec-07 Dec
Active                35/35/30
Minor storm           25/20/35
Moderate storm        15/05/15
Strong-Extreme storm  05/01/05

NOAA Kp index forecast 05 Dec - 07 Dec
             Dec 05    Dec 06    Dec 07
00-03UT        3.67      3.67      2.67
03-06UT        3.67      2.00      2.00
06-09UT        3.67      2.00      2.33
09-12UT        3.33      2.67      2.33
12-15UT        3.33      2.67      2.33
15-18UT        3.33      2.67      3.67
18-21UT        3.33      2.67      5.00
21-00UT        3.33      3.00      4.00


Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 05-Dec 07 2025 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 05-Dec 07 2025

             Dec 05       Dec 06       Dec 07
00-03UT       3.33         3.67         2.67
03-06UT       3.33         2.00         2.00
06-09UT       3.33         2.00         2.33
09-12UT       2.33         2.67         2.33
12-15UT       3.33         2.67         2.33
15-18UT       3.33         2.67         3.67
18-21UT       3.33         2.67         5.00 (G1)
21-00UT       3.33         3.00         4.00

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 07 Dec due to a
combination of negative polarity CH HSS influences and glancing effects
from the 04 Dec CME.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Dec 05-Dec 07 2025

              Dec 05  Dec 06  Dec 07
S1 or greater   15%     15%     15%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm
conditions on 05-07 Dec.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Dec 05-Dec 07 2025

              Dec 05        Dec 06        Dec 07
R1-R2           75%           75%           75%
R3 or greater   25%           25%           25%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected, with a
chance for R3 (Strong) or greater events, on 05-07 Dec.


Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity decayed to low levels. Region 4294 (S15W02,
Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) displayed some minor weakening spot numbers and
area where C3.8/Sf and C3.9/Sf were observed at 04/1805 UTC and 05/0011
UTC, respectively. Region 4296 (S14E17, Eki/beta-gamma-delta) showed
some very little changes. This region produced a few C-class flares on
the 4th, the largest a C6.8/Sn at 04/2324 UTC. C-class activity was
observed from Region 4298 (S18W17, Cso/beta) and Region 4299 (N21E22,
Dso/beta-delta). Both regions showed little change. New Region 4302
(S04W78, Hsx/alpha) emerged this period. No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed from available LASCO imagery.

.Forecast...
M-class flares are expected (75%) through 07 Dec, with a chance for
X-class flares (30%), given past flare history and the potential of
current active regions on the disk.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux in geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux in
geosynchronous orbit remained at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at moderate
levels on 05 Dec. High levels are likely on 06-07 Dec due to elevated
solar wind speeds associated with the ongoing CH HSS.

A slight chance (15%) exists for a greater than 10 MeV proton flux
enhancement above 10 pfu (S1-Minor) through 07 Dec due to the eruptive
potential of multiple active regions across the visible disk.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected the transition from CIR to negative
polarity CH HSS influences. Total magnetic field strength was steady at
7-9 nT, while the Bz component was at -8-9 nt early in the period, but
-3-4 nT after 04/2000 UTC. Solar wind speeds increased to peaks of near
770 km/s early, but slowly decreased to 600-690 km/s after 05/0200 UTC.
Phi was predominantly oriented in a negative solar sector.

.Forecast...
The solar wind environment is anticipated to remain disturbed by
negative polarity CH/HSS influences over 05-07 Dec. An additional
enhancement is likely late on 07 Dec due to glancing effects from the 04
Dec CME.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
Geomagnetic activity was at quiet to active levels due to negative
polarity coronal hole influences.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is likely to reach active levels, with a chance
for G1 (Minor) storm levels, over 05-06 Dec as influence from the
coronal hole wanes. G1 geomagnetic storm levels are likely on 07 Dec due
to the anticipated onset of influence from the periphery of a CME that
left the Sun on 04 Dec.


27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2025 Dec 01     190           8          3
2025 Dec 02     190           5          2
2025 Dec 03     190          15          4
2025 Dec 04     190          25          5
2025 Dec 05     190          30          5
2025 Dec 06     190          12          4
2025 Dec 07     190          10          3
2025 Dec 08     190           8          3
2025 Dec 09     190           5          2
2025 Dec 10     185           5          2
2025 Dec 11     180           5          2
2025 Dec 12     180           8          3
2025 Dec 13     175          18          5
2025 Dec 14     175          12          4
2025 Dec 15     180           8          3
2025 Dec 16     180           5          2
2025 Dec 17     180           8          3
2025 Dec 18     180          10          3
2025 Dec 19     180           8          3
2025 Dec 20     175           8          3
2025 Dec 21     175          15          4
2025 Dec 22     175          20          5
2025 Dec 23     180          20          5
2025 Dec 24     190          25          5
2025 Dec 25     195          20          5
2025 Dec 26     195          20          5
2025 Dec 27     195          15          4


  • GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
    It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

  • DATA SOURCES: Learn more
    Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

  • 'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
    These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

    The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

    Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

  • Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
    The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

    Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

  • Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
    The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.
  • DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

    The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

    Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

  • ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

    ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
  • GOES Satalites: Learn more

    GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

  • Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
    Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
    These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
    There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.
  • User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
    If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
    Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

 

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.


v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
 
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
 
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
 
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
 
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)

  Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey