Aurora Forecast

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27 Day

Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: SUMXM5
Serial Number: 277
Issue Time: 2024 Dec 30 1727 UTC

SUMMARY: X-ray Event exceeded M5
Begin Time: 2024 Dec 30 1645 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Dec 30 1654 UTC
End Time: 2025 Dec 30 1701 UTC
X-ray Class: M5.0
Optical Class: 1n
Location: N11W52
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered primarily on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth.
Radio - Limited blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for tens of minutes.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTXMF
Serial Number: 462
Issue Time: 2024 Dec 30 1655 UTC

ALERT: X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2024 Dec 30 1654 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap.

Space Weather Message Code: SUMX01
Serial Number: 185
Issue Time: 2024 Dec 30 0512 UTC

SUMMARY: X-ray Event exceeded X1
Begin Time: 2024 Dec 30 0429 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Dec 30 0431 UTC
End Time: 2024 Dec 30 0434 UTC
X-ray Class: X1.1
Location: S19W50
NOAA Scale: R3 - Strong

Comment: No initial Alert issued as X1.5 flare from Region 3936 was ongoing.
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact consists of large portions of the sunlit side of Earth, strongest at the sub-solar point.
Radio - Wide area blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for about an hour.

Space Weather Message Code: SUMX01
Serial Number: 184
Issue Time: 2024 Dec 30 0452 UTC

SUMMARY: X-ray Event exceeded X1
Begin Time: 2024 Dec 30 0401 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Dec 30 0414 UTC
End Time: 2024 Dec 30 0428 UTC
X-ray Class: X1.5
Optical Class: 2n
Location: N12W51
NOAA Scale: R3 - Strong
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact consists of large portions of the sunlit side of Earth, strongest at the sub-solar point.
Radio - Wide area blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for about an hour.

Space Weather Message Code: SUM10R
Serial Number: 856
Issue Time: 2024 Dec 30 0448 UTC

SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2024 Dec 30 0429 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Dec 30 0429 UTC
End Time: 2024 Dec 30 0431 UTC
Duration: 2 minutes
Peak Flux: 430 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 255 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

Space Weather Message Code: SUM10R
Serial Number: 855
Issue Time: 2024 Dec 30 0429 UTC

SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2024 Dec 30 0408 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Dec 30 0410 UTC
End Time: 2024 Dec 30 0415 UTC
Duration: 7 minutes
Peak Flux: 1000 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 255 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTXMF
Serial Number: 461
Issue Time: 2024 Dec 30 0416 UTC

ALERT: X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2024 Dec 30 0410 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap.

Solar-terrestrial indices for 30 December follow.
Solar flux 224 and estimated planetary A-index 8.
The estimated planetary K-index at 2100 UTC on 30 December was 2.00.

Space weather for the past 24 hours has been strong.
Radio blackouts reaching the R3 level occurred.

Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be strong.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G3 level are likely.
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected.

Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 29 Dec 005
Estimated Ap 30 Dec 008
Predicted Ap 31 Dec-02 Jan 050-020-008

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Dec-02 Jan
Active                05/20/25
Minor storm           15/40/05
Moderate storm        25/25/01
Strong-Extreme storm  55/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 31 Dec - 02 Jan
             Dec 31    Jan 01    Jan 02
00-03UT        1.67      5.00      2.67
03-06UT        3.67      3.33      2.00
06-09UT        4.33      4.33      2.00
09-12UT        5.00      3.67      2.00
12-15UT        6.00      2.67      2.00
15-18UT        6.67      2.33      2.00
18-21UT        5.33      2.00      2.00
21-00UT        5.00      3.00      2.33

Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 30-Jan 01 2025 is 6.67 (NOAA Scale
G3).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 30-Jan 01 2025

             Dec 30       Dec 31       Jan 01
00-03UT       1.00         1.67         5.00 (G1)
03-06UT       2.00         5.00 (G1)    4.00
06-09UT       2.67         6.00 (G2)    3.33
09-12UT       1.67         6.67 (G3)    3.67
12-15UT       1.00         5.33 (G1)    2.67
15-18UT       1.33         4.33         2.33
18-21UT       1.67         4.00         2.00
21-00UT       2.67         4.67 (G1)    3.00

Rationale: Isolated periods of G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storming are
likely by mid UTC day on 31 Dec due to CME effects from the
aforementioned asymmetric, partial-halo event from early on 29 Dec.
Lingering G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely, with a chance for
G2 (Moderate) levels, on 01 Jan with the likely arrival of the second
CME, also from 29 Dec.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Dec 30-Jan 01 2025

              Dec 30  Dec 31  Jan 01
S1 or greater   20%     20%     15%

Rationale: A slight chance for an S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm event
will persist through 01 Jan given the current total disk potential.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Dec 30 2024 0414 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Dec 30-Jan 01 2025

              Dec 30        Dec 31        Jan 01
R1-R2           80%           80%           75%
R3 or greater   30%           30%           25%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected, with a
chance for an isolated R3 (Strong) event, through 01 Jan.

Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity continued at high levels. Region 3936 (N13W48,
Dkc/beta-gamma-delta) produced the largest flare of the period, an
X1.5/2N flare that peaked at 30/0414 UTC. As the X1.5 flare was
decaying, Region 3932 (S16W55, Cao/beta) produced an X1.1 flare that
peaked at 30/0429 UTC.
Region 3936 was the most active region, producing six M-class flares and
one of the X-class flares. Regions 3933 (S08W78, Dao/beta-gamma) and
3939 (S17E20, Dso/beta) added three M-class flares each during the
period. A few other regions contributed isolated M-class flares,
bringing the total count to 17 M-class flares and two X-class flares
over the past 24 hours. The majority of the spot groups were relatively
unchanged, with none showing notable growth or decay throughout the
period.

A filament eruption that was associated with an M2.0 flare at 29/0430
UTC from AR3939 resulted in an asymmetric, partial-halo CME first seen
in NASA coronagraph imagery at approximately 29/0624 UTC. Analysis and
modeling of this CME indicated an Earth-directed event with an arrival
at Earth by mid UTC day on 31 Dec.

Additionally, AR 3939 produced an M3.3 flare at 29/1708 UTC that
appeared to have resulted in yet another partial-halo CME, although,
more faint CME first seen in NASA coronagraph imagery around 29/1800
UTC. Analysis and modeling of this event point towards a likely
Earth-directed component as well, with an anticipated arrival time near
midday on 1 Jan.

Finally, following the X1.5 flare, a subsequent CME was observed in
LASCO coronagraph imagery, starting at 30/0500 UTC and moving NW.
Initial analysis of this event indicated a miss ahead and above the
Sun-Earth line.

.Forecast...
R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected, with a chance for
an isolated R3 (Strong) event, through 01 Jan.

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained slightly elevated above
background levels, but well below the S1 threshold. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux reached moderate levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal
to moderate levels through 01 Jan. A slight chance for an S1 (Minor)
solar radiation storm event will persist through 01 Jan given the
current total disk potential.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters saw a few weak enhancements during the period, but
remained overall at nominal levels. Total field ranged from 2-9 nT, Bz
was mostly positive with a few southward deflections to -7 nT, , and
solar wind speeds saw a gradual decrease from ~400 km/s to under 350
km/s by the end of the period. Phi spent about an equal amount of time
in both the positive and negative sectors.

.Forecast...
Weak enhancements are possible through 30 Dec with periods of sustained
southward Bz. Greater enhancements to the solar wind environment are
likely by mid UTC day on 31 Dec, due to the anticipated arrival of the
CME from early on 29 Dec. Additional, yet weaker enhancements are then
possible again on 01 Jan with the likely arrival of the second CME, also
from 29 Dec.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet, with an isolated unsettled
period.

.Forecast...
Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 30 Dec under a mostly
nominal solar wind regime. Isolated periods of G3 (Strong) geomagnetic
storming are likely by mid UTC day on 31 Dec due to CME effects from the
aforementioned asymmetric, partial-halo event from early on 29 Dec.
Lingering G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely, with a chance for
G2 (Moderate) levels, on 01 Jan with the likely arrival of the second
CME, also from 29 Dec. While confidence is moderate to high for a
geomagnetic storming outcome, exact storm strength and timing is lower
due to the nature of the filament eruption.

27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2024 Dec 30     255           8          3
2024 Dec 31     240          50          7
2025 Jan 01     210          20          5
2025 Jan 02     200           8          3
2025 Jan 03     195           5          2
2025 Jan 04     190           5          2
2025 Jan 05     190           8          3
2025 Jan 06     170           8          3
2025 Jan 07     160           5          2
2025 Jan 08     160           5          2
2025 Jan 09     165           5          2
2025 Jan 10     170          12          4
2025 Jan 11     165          10          3
2025 Jan 12     170           8          3
2025 Jan 13     170           5          2
2025 Jan 14     175           5          2
2025 Jan 15     175           5          2
2025 Jan 16     180          12          4
2025 Jan 17     190          10          3
2025 Jan 18     200          10          3
2025 Jan 19     210          10          3
2025 Jan 20     220          10          3
2025 Jan 21     230           5          2
2025 Jan 22     230           5          2
2025 Jan 23     230           5          2
2025 Jan 24     230           5          2
2025 Jan 25     230           5          2

Save as 'My Presets'

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.
From Date: (YYYY-MM-DD HH:MM). Leave empty for real-time.

Range: (in hours, WARNING 1 hour = ~10KB of data)
Local Time Zone:
Enable Forecast / Timeshift (Recommended) Enable Fixed Y Axis Values Combine Y Series (B*, Proton, Dyn Preasure & Kp). Show Axis Titles Show Graph Legend (Keys) Enable Auto Update (Range will be reduced to 2 hours) Enable Night Vision Red Theme

DATA SOURCES: Learn more
Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.
'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

AF Index (Experemental) AF Community Activity (Hits)
Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

SWPC Kp (Observation)
SWPC Kp (Prediction) GeoSpace Kp (Prediction) Wing Kp (Legacy : Date < 22/06/18)
Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.

Northern Hemisphere (Aurora Borealis) Southern Hemisphere (Aurora Australis)
DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

Mag Bt (Total Strength) Mag Bx (X Axis) Mag By (Y Axis) Mag Bz (Z Axis) Solar Wind Speed Proton Density Dynamic Pressure (Calculated)
ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
Show ACE (When enabled the forecasting / timeshift feature will be disabled)
GOES Satalites: Learn more

GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

Primary Secondary Variation (Pri - Sec)
Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.

Macquarie Island (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Mawson (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Canberra (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Ruru Obseratory (www.ruruobseratory.org.nz / NZ) Aurora Forecast #1 (Hobart) Aurora Forecast #2 (Hobart) Aurora Forecast #3 (Hobart)
User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.

v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)

v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.

v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).

v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.

> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)
Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

DATA SOURCES: Learn more Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

DATA SOURCES: Learn more
Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.