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Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5364
Issue Time: 2026 Jun 13 0127 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2026 Jun 13 0126 UTC
Valid To: 2026 Jun 13 2359 UTC
Warning Conditions: Onset

Comment:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.


Solar-terrestrial indices for 12 June follow.
Solar flux 128 and estimated planetary A-index 16.
The estimated planetary K-index at 0000 UTC on 13 June was 3.00.

No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be moderate.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G2 level are likely.


Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 11 Jun 018
Estimated Ap 12 Jun 021
Predicted Ap 13 Jun-15 Jun 036-022-012

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jun-15 Jun
Active                05/35/40
Minor storm           35/40/10
Moderate storm        50/10/01
Strong-Extreme storm  05/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 13 Jun - 15 Jun
             Jun 13    Jun 14    Jun 15
00-03UT        4.67      4.67      3.00
03-06UT        3.33      4.00      2.33
06-09UT        5.67      3.33      3.67
09-12UT        3.00      3.33      2.67
12-15UT        4.67      2.67      2.67
15-18UT        5.00      2.67      2.00
18-21UT        4.33      3.67      2.33
21-00UT        4.33      4.00      2.33


Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 13-Jun 15 2026 is 5.67 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 13-Jun 15 2026

             Jun 13       Jun 14       Jun 15
00-03UT       3.33         4.67 (G1)    3.00
03-06UT       4.67 (G1)    4.00         2.33
06-09UT       5.67 (G2)    3.33         3.67
09-12UT       3.00         3.33         2.67
12-15UT       4.67 (G1)    2.67         2.67
15-18UT       5.00 (G1)    2.67         2.00
18-21UT       4.33         3.67         2.33
21-00UT       4.33         4.00         2.33

Rationale: Geomagnetic field conditions are likely to reach G2
(Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels on 13 Jun due to the persistence of
the high-speed stream combined with the anticipated arrival of CMEs that
left the Sun over 09 Jun and 11 Jun. Conditions are expected to decrease
on 14 Jun, with isolated G1 (Minor) storming periods still likely, as
CME influences wane.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 13-Jun 15 2026

              Jun 13  Jun 14  Jun 15
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 13-Jun 15 2026

              Jun 13        Jun 14        Jun 15
R1-R2           35%           35%           35%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
on 13-15 Jun, primarily due to the potential of Regions 4464 and 4465.


Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. Region 4465 (N09E14, Cao/beta)
produced the strongest flare of the period, a C5.2 at 12/0214 UTC. The
region exhibited widespread decay over the past 24 hours. Region 4464
(S13W29, Dao/beta) saw growth in its trailer and intermediate spots.
The remaining numbered spotted regions were either mostly stable or in
gradual decay.

Other activity included a small filament eruption that was observed near
N02E40 beginning after 12/1600 UTC. Subsequent SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph
imagery contained a CME signature towards the NE. Analysis and modeling
of this event is ongoing.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to remain at low levels through 15 Jun, with
a chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares, primarily due to the
potential of Regions 4464 and 4465.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit continued
at low to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained
at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to increase to high
levels over 13-14 Jun in response to high-speed stream influences. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background
levels through 15 Jun.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected the transition from a CIR into a
negative polarity CH HSS. Total magnetic field strength decreased from a
peak of 15 nT at 12/0122 UTC to a steady ~5 nT by 12/0715 UTC. The Bz
component briefly reached a maximum southward deflection of -10 nT
during the CIR. Solar wind speeds increased from ~500 km/s during the
CIR to a peak speed between 600-700 km/s over 12/0600-0900UTC. A gradual
decline was observed through the remainder of the reporting period. Phi
angle was predominantly oriented in the negative sector.

.Forecast...
Solar wind enhancements, in response to -CH HSS influences, are expected
to continue through 13 Jun. Further enhancements are anticipated to
continue into 14 Jun, due to the anticipated arrival of combined effects
from CMEs that departed the Sun on 09 and 11 Jun.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active due to the influence
of a negative polarity CH HSS.

.Forecast...
Geomagnetic field conditions are likely to reach G2 (Moderate)
geomagnetic storm levels on 13 Jun due to the persistence of the
high-speed stream combined with the anticipated arrival of CMEs that
left the Sun over 09 Jun and 11 Jun. Conditions are expected to decrease
to mostly active levels, with isolated G1 (Minor) storming periods, on
14 Jun as CME influences wane. Unsettled to active conditions are likely
over 15 Jun.


27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2026 Jun 08     135          50          7
2026 Jun 09     132          32          6
2026 Jun 10     130          12          3
2026 Jun 11     130          15          3
2026 Jun 12     128          10          3
2026 Jun 13     128           6          2
2026 Jun 14     120           6          2
2026 Jun 15     118           8          3
2026 Jun 16     120           8          3
2026 Jun 17     122           5          2
2026 Jun 18     122           5          2
2026 Jun 19     125           5          2
2026 Jun 20     125           5          2
2026 Jun 21     128           8          3
2026 Jun 22     130           8          3
2026 Jun 23     132          10          4
2026 Jun 24     134          15          4
2026 Jun 25     134          15          4
2026 Jun 26     132          15          4
2026 Jun 27     130          10          3
2026 Jun 28     132           8          3
2026 Jun 29     130           6          2
2026 Jun 30     128           8          3
2026 Jul 01     125           5          2
2026 Jul 02     130           5          2
2026 Jul 03     128          12          3
2026 Jul 04     125           8          3


  • GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
    It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

  • DATA SOURCES: Learn more
    Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

  • 'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
    These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

    The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

    Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

  • Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
    The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

    Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

  • Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
    The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.
  • DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

    The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

    Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

  • ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

    ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
  • GOES Satalites: Learn more

    GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

  • Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
    Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
    These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
    There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.
  • User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
    If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
    Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

 

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.


v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
 
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
 
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
 
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
 
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)

  Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey