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Weather: TAS
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Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 1507
Issue Time: 2026 Jun 21 1951 UTC

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2026 Jun 21 1932 UTC
Estimate Velocity: 380 km/s

Comment:

Space Weather Message Code: SUMXM5
Serial Number: 319
Issue Time: 2026 Jun 21 1948 UTC

SUMMARY: X-ray Event exceeded M5
Begin Time: 2026 Jun 21 1917 UTC
Maximum Time: 2026 Jun 21 1929 UTC
End Time: 2026 Jun 22 1935 UTC
Xray Class: M6.8
Optical Class: 2b
Location: S07E55
Noaa Scale: R2 - Moderate

Comment:
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered primarily on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth.
Radio - Limited blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for tens of minutes.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTXMF
Serial Number: 532
Issue Time: 2026 Jun 21 1930 UTC

ALERT: X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2026 Jun 21 1927 UTC
Noaa Scale: R2 - Moderate

Comment:
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap.


Solar-terrestrial indices for 21 June follow.
Solar flux 128 and estimated planetary A-index 5.
The estimated planetary K-index at 0300 UTC on 22 June was 1.33.

Space weather for the past 24 hours has been moderate.
Radio blackouts reaching the R2 level occurred.

No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.


Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 20 Jun 007
Estimated Ap 21 Jun 005
Predicted Ap 22 Jun-24 Jun 005-005-012

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jun-24 Jun
Active                10/10/35
Minor storm           01/01/25
Moderate storm        01/01/10
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 22 Jun - 24 Jun
             Jun 22    Jun 23    Jun 24
00-03UT        1.67      1.67      1.67
03-06UT        2.00      2.00      2.33
06-09UT        1.67      1.67      1.67
09-12UT        1.67      1.33      1.67
12-15UT        1.00      1.33      2.67
15-18UT        1.33      0.67      2.67
18-21UT        0.67      1.00      3.67
21-00UT        1.67      1.67      3.67


Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 22-Jun 24 2026 is 3.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 22-Jun 24 2026

             Jun 22       Jun 23       Jun 24
00-03UT       1.67         1.67         1.67
03-06UT       2.00         2.00         2.33
06-09UT       2.00         1.67         1.67
09-12UT       1.67         1.33         1.67
12-15UT       1.00         1.33         2.67
15-18UT       1.00         0.67         2.67
18-21UT       0.67         1.00         3.67
21-00UT       1.67         1.67         3.67

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 22-Jun 24 2026

              Jun 22  Jun 23  Jun 24
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Jun 21 2026 1929 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 22-Jun 24 2026

              Jun 22        Jun 23        Jun 24
R1-R2           40%           40%           40%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: There is an increasing chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate)
radio blackouts on 22-24 Jun, due primarily to the flare potential of
Region 4473.


Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached high levels. Region 4473 (S08E56, Eai/beta-gamma)
produced an M2.6 flare at 21/0246 UTC, followed by an M6.8/2b flare
(R2-Moderate) at 21/1929 UTC; the strongest of the period. A Type II
radio sweep (est. 380 km/s) was associated with the second event.
Further coronagraph imagery is need to determine if an Earth-directed
CME was produced. The regions leader spots continued to develop over
the past 24 hours. The other two spotted active regions on the disk only
exhibited minor changes.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to continue at predominately low levels on
22-24 Jun, with an increasing chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate)
flares due primarily to the flare potential of Region 4473.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal
to moderate levels over 22-24 Jun. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
is expected to persist at background levels through 24 Jun.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were at background levels this period. Total
magnetic field strength was at or below 6 nT. No significant periods of
southward Bz were observed. Solar wind speeds varied between ~390-330
km/s. Phi angle was oriented in a positive solar sector.

.Forecast...
Background solar wind conditions are expected to prevail over 22-23 Jun.
Enhanced conditions are expected on 24 Jun due to the anticipated onset
of negative polarity CH HSS influences.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at mostly quiet levels
over 22-23 Jun. Periods of active conditions are likely on 24 Jun due to
the anticipated onset of negative polarity CH HSS influences.


27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2026 Jun 22     120           5          2
2026 Jun 23     120           5          2
2026 Jun 24     120          12          4
2026 Jun 25     125          12          4
2026 Jun 26     130          10          3
2026 Jun 27     130           8          3
2026 Jun 28     130           5          2
2026 Jun 29     132           5          2
2026 Jun 30     135           5          2
2026 Jul 01     145           5          2
2026 Jul 02     138           5          2
2026 Jul 03     140          18          5
2026 Jul 04     135          15          4
2026 Jul 05     130          12          4
2026 Jul 06     130          10          3
2026 Jul 07     130           5          2
2026 Jul 08     125          12          4
2026 Jul 09     126          10          3
2026 Jul 10     120           8          3
2026 Jul 11     122           5          2
2026 Jul 12     118           6          2
2026 Jul 13     116           6          2
2026 Jul 14     115           6          2
2026 Jul 15     120           6          2
2026 Jul 16     125          12          4
2026 Jul 17     125          10          3
2026 Jul 18     122           6          2


  • GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
    It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

  • DATA SOURCES: Learn more
    Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

  • 'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
    These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

    The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

    Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

  • Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
    The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

    Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

  • Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
    The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.
  • DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

    The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

    Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

  • ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

    ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
  • GOES Satalites: Learn more

    GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

  • Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
    Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
    These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
    There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.
  • User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
    If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
    Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

 

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.


v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
 
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
 
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
 
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
 
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)

  Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey