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Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5305
Issue Time: 2026 Mar 30 0855 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 5304
Valid From: 2026 Mar 29 1546 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2026 Mar 30 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 3661
Issue Time: 2026 Mar 30 0742 UTC

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 3660
Begin Time: 2026 Mar 22 1430 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 3755 pfu
Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.


Solar-terrestrial indices for 30 March follow.
Solar flux 152 and estimated planetary A-index 12.
The estimated planetary K-index at 0600 UTC on 31 March was 2.67.

No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be moderate.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G2 level are likely.
Radio blackouts reaching the R2 level are likely.


Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 29 Mar 014
Estimated Ap 30 Mar 017
Predicted Ap 31 Mar-02 Apr 035-024-008

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Mar-02 Apr
Active                25/30/15
Minor storm           25/35/05
Moderate storm        30/15/01
Strong-Extreme storm  15/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 31 Mar - 02 Apr
             Mar 31    Apr 01    Apr 02
00-03UT        3.67      5.00      2.67
03-06UT        3.00      4.67      2.67
06-09UT        2.67      4.33      2.00
09-12UT        2.00      4.00      1.67
12-15UT        4.67      3.00      1.67
15-18UT        5.67      2.67      1.33
18-21UT        5.67      2.00      1.67
21-00UT        5.00      2.33      1.67


Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 31-Apr 02 2026 is 5.67 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 31-Apr 02 2026

             Mar 31       Apr 01       Apr 02
00-03UT       3.67         5.00 (G1)    2.67
03-06UT       3.00         4.67 (G1)    2.67
06-09UT       2.67         4.33         2.00
09-12UT       2.00         4.00         1.67
12-15UT       4.67 (G1)    3.00         1.67
15-18UT       5.67 (G2)    2.67         1.33
18-21UT       5.67 (G2)    2.00         1.67
21-00UT       5.00 (G1)    2.33         1.67

Rationale: Enhancements are likely to reach G2 (Moderate) levels midday
to late on 31 Mar, with a chance for G3 (Strong) storm levels due to
possible CME effects from the 30 Mar X1.4 major flare event. Active to
G1 (Minor) levels are then expected into 01 Apr due to continued CH HSS
and CME effects.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 31-Apr 02 2026

              Mar 31  Apr 01  Apr 02
S1 or greater   50%     50%     25%

Rationale: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is likely to exceed event
levels (S1/Minor) on 31 Mar through 02 Apr.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Mar 30 2026 0319 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 31-Apr 02 2026

              Mar 31        Apr 01        Apr 02
R1-R2           55%           55%           55%
R3 or greater   10%           10%           10%

Rationale: Solar activity is expected to be low with M-class flares
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) likely through 02 Apr and a slight chance of
X-class flares (R3/Strong) through 02 Apr.


Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached high levels due to a long duration X1.4 flare
(R3/Strong) peaking at 30/0319 UTC from Region 4405 (S27E32,
Eao/beta-gamma). This event also produced a Type II Sweep starting at
30/0300 UTC (est. velocity = 1,872 km/s) and a Tenflare peaking at
30/0304 UTC (peak flux of 1,800 sfu). Weak C-class activity from Region
4402 (N19W32, Cai/beta) was observed during the X1.4 flare decay phase,
and likely associated with Type III radio bursts.

Associated with the X1.4 flare, a partial-halo CME was observed in LASCO
C2 imagery beginning at 30/0312 UTC. The modeled CME propagation
indicates possible impacts near-Earth late on 31 Mar.

There are currently ten numbered regions on the visible disk, including
Region 4409 (N02E54, Bxo/beta), which was numbered during this period as
a small bipolar group. The most complex region on the disk remains
Region 4405, though it exhibited some simplification in both its leading
and trailing spots following the X-class event. Region 4401 (N25W39,
Eao/beta) also showed continued simplification of its intermediary and
trailing spots. The remaining spot groups were relatively stable.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to reach Minor-Moderate (R1-R2) levels, with a
slight chance for X-class flares (R3/Strong) through 02 Apr, due to the
complexity and evolution of the active regions currently on the solar
disk.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
with a peak flux of 1,350 pfu at 30/1450 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux remained at background levels during the period.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels on 31 Mar, with high levels likely on 01-02 Apr. There
is a chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to exceed event
levels (S1/Minor) on 31 Mar through 01 Apr as a result of the X1.4 flare
described above.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected the influence of a positive polarity CH
HSS during the day, with: Phi angle mostly positive; total
interplanetary magnetic field between 6-12 nT; Bz oscillating between 9
and -7 nT; and solar wind speeds around 450 km/s.

.Forecast...
Enhanced solar wind disturbances near-Earth are likely on 31 Mar and 01
Apr, reflecting the possible CME influences additionally to a CH HSS
conditions. Background solar wind parameters are expected to return on
02 Apr, as the CME effects wanes.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels during the period.

.Forecast...
G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storming levels are likely, with a chance for
isolated G3 (Strong) storm levels on 31 Mar due to possible CME effects
from the 30 Mar X1.4 major flare event. Active to G1/Minor levels are
then expected into 01 Apr due to continued CH HSS and CME waning
effects. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected to be restored on 02
Apr.


27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2026 Mar 30     155          22          5
2026 Mar 31     152          12          4
2026 Apr 01     155           8          3
2026 Apr 02     155           5          2
2026 Apr 03     150          18          4
2026 Apr 04     145          22          5
2026 Apr 05     145          10          3
2026 Apr 06     135          15          4
2026 Apr 07     125           8          3
2026 Apr 08     118           7          2
2026 Apr 09     120          25          5
2026 Apr 10     110          40          6
2026 Apr 11     112          20          5
2026 Apr 12     115          12          4
2026 Apr 13     115           8          3
2026 Apr 14     110           7          2
2026 Apr 15     115           5          2
2026 Apr 16     115           4          2
2026 Apr 17     120           7          2
2026 Apr 18     122          48          6
2026 Apr 19     124          22          5
2026 Apr 20     130          12          4
2026 Apr 21     140          12          4
2026 Apr 22     150           8          3
2026 Apr 23     155           5          2
2026 Apr 24     160           8          3
2026 Apr 25     155          15          4


  • GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
    It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

  • DATA SOURCES: Learn more
    Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

  • 'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
    These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

    The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

    Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

  • Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
    The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

    Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

  • Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
    The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.
  • DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

    The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

    Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

  • ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

    ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
  • GOES Satalites: Learn more

    GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

  • Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
    Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
    These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
    There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.
  • User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
    If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
    Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

 

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.


v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
 
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
 
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
 
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
 
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)

  Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey