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Ovation: South
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Weather: TAS
Presets: Presets

Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5213
Issue Time: 2026 Jan 09 2041 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2026 Jan 09 2041 UTC
Valid To: 2026 Jan 10 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: WATA20
Serial Number: 1087
Issue Time: 2026 Jan 09 2006 UTC

WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted
Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Jan 10:  G1 (Minor)   Jan 11:  G1 (Minor)   Jan 12:  None (Below G1)
THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT

Comment: CMEs associated with a filament eruption from 08 Jan, coupled with ongoing CH HSS effects, are likely to bring G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming conditions by late 10 Jan continuing into 11 Jan.
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 1465
Issue Time: 2026 Jan 09 1517 UTC

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2026 Jan 09 1244 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 200 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5212
Issue Time: 2026 Jan 09 1126 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 5211
Valid From: 2026 Jan 09 0140 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2026 Jan 09 1800 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP4
Serial Number: 703
Issue Time: 2026 Jan 09 1059 UTC

ALERT: Type IV Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2026 Jan 09 0944 UTC
Description: Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 1464
Issue Time: 2026 Jan 09 1024 UTC

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2026 Jan 09 0932 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 203 km/s

Comment: Current imagery does not suggest any on-disk source at this time.
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5211
Issue Time: 2026 Jan 09 0848 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 5210
Valid From: 2026 Jan 09 0140 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2026 Jan 09 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK04
Serial Number: 2622
Issue Time: 2026 Jan 09 0306 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5210
Issue Time: 2026 Jan 09 0142 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2026 Jan 09 0140 UTC
Valid To: 2026 Jan 09 0900 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.


Solar-terrestrial indices for 09 January follow.
Solar flux 117 and estimated planetary A-index 16.
The estimated planetary K-index at 2100 UTC on 09 January was 3.33.

No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be minor.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are likely.


Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 08 Jan 014
Estimated Ap 09 Jan 016
Predicted Ap 10 Jan-12 Jan 021-030-015

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jan-12 Jan
Active                25/25/35
Minor storm           40/35/25
Moderate storm        20/25/05
Strong-Extreme storm  05/05/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 10 Jan - 12 Jan
             Jan 10    Jan 11    Jan 12
00-03UT        3.67      5.33      3.67
03-06UT        3.67      5.00      3.67
06-09UT        3.00      4.67      3.00
09-12UT        2.33      4.00      2.00
12-15UT        3.00      3.00      2.00
15-18UT        4.00      3.00      2.67
18-21UT        3.67      3.33      3.00
21-00UT        4.67      3.67      3.33


Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3.67 (below
NOAA Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 09-Jan 11 2026 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 09-Jan 11 2026

             Jan 09       Jan 10       Jan 11
00-03UT       3.67         3.67         4.00
03-06UT       3.33         3.00         2.00
06-09UT       2.33         3.00         2.00
09-12UT       2.00         2.33         3.00
12-15UT       4.00         3.00         3.33
15-18UT       3.00         4.00         3.00
18-21UT       3.00         3.67         3.33
21-00UT       4.67 (G1)    3.33         3.00

Rationale: G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are possible on 09
Jan due to the potential entanglement of a CME with the arriving CH HSS.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 09-Jan 11 2026

              Jan 09  Jan 10  Jan 11
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.


C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 09-Jan 11 2026

              Jan 09        Jan 10        Jan 11
R1-R2           20%           20%           20%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts on 09-11 Jan.


Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. Slight separation and consolidation
was observed in both Regions 4334 (S16W20, Cso/beta) and 4336 (S10E15,
Eko/beta-delta), despite 4334 being the most active area on the disk.
New Region 4338 (S05E22, Bxo/beta) developed and was numbered during the
period. The remainder of the regions were in decay or crossing over the
western limb and foreshortening affected analysis.

The u-shaped filament located south of ARs 4334 and 4336 began erupting
at approximately 08/1630 UTC. This caused a sympathetic long-duration
C5.6 flare from AR 4334 that peaked at 08/1730 UTC, which was the
largest flare of the reporting period. This eruption and subsequent
flare were accompanied by a Type IV radio sweep and an associated CME
first observed in LASCO C2 imagery beginning at ~08/1700 UTC.

There was also a C2.7 flare that peaked at 08/1609 UTC from Region 4334
with an associated CME first observed in LASCO C2 imagery at ~08/1705
UTC. This CME quickly becomes entangled with the filament eruption in
coronagraph imagery, and modelling suggests these CMEs may catch up with
the CME associated with the C4.4/Sf flare at ~08/0545 UTC, resulting in
a near-Earth passage and potential glancing blow late on 10 Jan to early
on Jan 11.

A C3.4 flare at 08/1956 UTC, also from Region 4334, was associated with
a Type II (est speed 855 km/s) radio sweep associated with it, but a
narrow, southward CME observed in LASCO C2 at ~09/0000 UTC appears to be
related to the remainder of the u-shaped filament erupting. Analysis is
still ongoing as more imagery becomes available.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance (20%) for
M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) over 09-11 Jan.


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained at moderate levels. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate
levels on 09-10 Jan, increasing to high on 11 Jan. Greater than 10 MeV
proton events are not anticipated (1%) through 11 Jan.


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters continued enhancing throughout the reporting
period, with the total magnetic field (Bt) increasing from 8 nT to 16 nT
at the end of the reporting period. The Bz (north-south) component
fluctuated between +/- 10 nT. Solar wind speed slowly increased from
beginning speeds near 400 km/s to near 550 km/s. Phi angle was
predominantly in a negative orientation (towards the Sun).

.Forecast...
Enhanced conditions are expected on 09 Jan, likely associated
with the arrival of a CIR/CH HSS and possible influences from the 06 Jan
CME. Elevated solar wind speeds are expected to continue through 11 Jan
as CH HSS influence is expected to persist, with a potential greater
disturbance on 10 Jan due to a possible glancing blow from several CMEs
that left the Sun on 08 Jan.


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active levels.

.Forecast...
Unsettled to active levels are expected, with isolated G1 (Minor) storm
conditions possible, on 09 Jan as the CH HSS/CME influences persist.
Unsettled to active conditions are expected to continue on 10-11 Jan as
the coronal hole moves further into a geo-effective position, along with
the possible arrival of CMEs that left the Sun on 08 Jan, with a chance
for isolated G1 (Minor) storm conditions late 10 Jan.


27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2026 Jan 05     155          10          3
2026 Jan 06     150           5          2
2026 Jan 07     145           5          2
2026 Jan 08     140           5          2
2026 Jan 09     135           8          3
2026 Jan 10     135           8          3
2026 Jan 11     130           5          2
2026 Jan 12     135          10          3
2026 Jan 13     135          15          5
2026 Jan 14     140          15          5
2026 Jan 15     145           5          2
2026 Jan 16     145           5          2
2026 Jan 17     145          20          5
2026 Jan 18     140          20          5
2026 Jan 19     145          18          5
2026 Jan 20     150          18          5
2026 Jan 21     155           8          3
2026 Jan 22     160           8          3
2026 Jan 23     165           6          2
2026 Jan 24     170           6          2
2026 Jan 25     175           6          2
2026 Jan 26     175           6          2
2026 Jan 27     170           8          3
2026 Jan 28     165          12          4
2026 Jan 29     160          20          5
2026 Jan 30     155          10          3
2026 Jan 31     160           8          3


  • GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
    It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

  • DATA SOURCES: Learn more
    Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

  • 'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
    These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

    The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

    Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

  • Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
    The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

    Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

  • Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
    The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.
  • DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

    The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

    Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

  • ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

    ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
  • GOES Satalites: Learn more

    GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

  • Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
    Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
    These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
    There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.
  • User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
    If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
    Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

 

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.


v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
 
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
 
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
 
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
 
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)

  Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast


Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey