Aurora Forecast

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27 Day

Alerts:
none

Solar-terrestrial indices for 23 June follow.
Solar flux 130 and estimated planetary A-index 7.
The estimated planetary K-index at 0600 UTC on 24 June was 2.00.

No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.

Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 22 Jun 005
Estimated Ap 23 Jun 007
Predicted Ap 24 Jun-26 Jun 012-015-015

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jun-26 Jun
Active                35/35/35
Minor storm           25/25/25
Moderate storm        10/10/10
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 24 Jun - 26 Jun
             Jun 24    Jun 25    Jun 26
00-03UT        1.67      3.67      3.33
03-06UT        2.33      4.00      3.00
06-09UT        1.67      2.67      2.00
09-12UT        1.67      2.67      2.00
12-15UT        2.67      1.67      3.00
15-18UT        2.67      1.67      3.33
18-21UT        3.67      2.67      3.33
21-00UT        3.67      3.67      3.33

Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 24-Jun 26 2026 is 4.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 24-Jun 26 2026

             Jun 24       Jun 25       Jun 26
00-03UT       1.67         3.67         3.33
03-06UT       2.33         4.00         3.00
06-09UT       1.67         2.67         2.00
09-12UT       1.67         2.67         2.00
12-15UT       2.67         1.67         3.00
15-18UT       2.67         1.67         3.33
18-21UT       3.67         2.67         3.33
21-00UT       3.67         3.67         3.33

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 24-Jun 26 2026

              Jun 24  Jun 25  Jun 26
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 24-Jun 26 2026

              Jun 24        Jun 25        Jun 26
R1-R2           25%           30%           30%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
over 24-26 Jun due primarily to the flare potential of farside regions
currently rotating into view from the East limb.

Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity returned to low levels, with frequent high B-level/low
C-level activity mostly on the East limb. The largest flare of the
period was a partially occulted C8.7 flare on the East limb at 23/2325
UTC. Regions 4472 (S14E15, Cri/beta), 4473 (S09E26, Hrx/alpha), and 4474
(N03W89, Hsx/alpha) exhibited substantial decay and fragmentation this
period. Region 4470 (N07W24, Bxo/beta) decayed nearly to plage. Two new
groups were numbered this period: Region 4476 (N08E11, Dai/beta) had
slow but continual flux emergence in its intermediary area and Region
4477 (S13E68, Bxo/beta) rotated further into view as a relatively stable
and unremarkable bipolar group.

NSO GONG white light and NASA/SDO continuum imagery began showing a
large penumbra rotating onto the south-eastern limb (at approximately
S06 latitude), which is likely the leading section of the large spot
group observed by ESA/NASA Solar Orbiter. It is anticipated to rotate
into Earth-view on 24 Jun. Once the spot group fully rotates on-disk, it
will be analyzed and numbered.

No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery,
though a large farside eruption was observed to the northeast and is
first visible in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery at 23/1848 UTC and GOES CCOR1
imagery at 23/2000 UTC.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to continue at predominately low levels on
24-26 Jun, with an increasing chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate)
flares primarily due to the potential of the farside region(s)
anticipated to soon rotate onto the visible disk.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal
to moderate levels over 24-26 Jun. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
is expected to persist at background levels through 26 Jun.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were at background levels for the majority of the
reporting period, with total magnetic field strength (Bt) at or below 6
nT, no significant periods of southward Bz, phi largely negative, and
solar wind speeds approximately 350 km/s. At 23/1056 UTC, a magnetic
transient began passing through the near-Earth environment: Bt began
increasing and eventually reached 11 nT at 23/1858 UTC, when the wind
speed also increased to approximately 375 km/s, with Bz deflecting
northward and maintaining an average of ~+4 nT for several hours.

.Forecast...
Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to prevail through 26 Jun
due to the anticipated onset of negative polarity CH HSS influences and
a potential minor glancing blow from a CME that left the Sun on 20 Jun.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

.Forecast...
Periods of active conditions are likely through 26 Jun due to the
anticipated onset of negative polarity CH HSS and glancing blow
influences.

27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2026 Jun 22     120           5          2
2026 Jun 23     120           5          2
2026 Jun 24     120          12          4
2026 Jun 25     125          12          4
2026 Jun 26     130          10          3
2026 Jun 27     130           8          3
2026 Jun 28     130           5          2
2026 Jun 29     132           5          2
2026 Jun 30     135           5          2
2026 Jul 01     145           5          2
2026 Jul 02     138           5          2
2026 Jul 03     140          18          5
2026 Jul 04     135          15          4
2026 Jul 05     130          12          4
2026 Jul 06     130          10          3
2026 Jul 07     130           5          2
2026 Jul 08     125          12          4
2026 Jul 09     126          10          3
2026 Jul 10     120           8          3
2026 Jul 11     122           5          2
2026 Jul 12     118           6          2
2026 Jul 13     116           6          2
2026 Jul 14     115           6          2
2026 Jul 15     120           6          2
2026 Jul 16     125          12          4
2026 Jul 17     125          10          3
2026 Jul 18     122           6          2

Save as 'My Presets'

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.
From Date: (YYYY-MM-DD HH:MM). Leave empty for real-time.

Range: (in hours, WARNING 1 hour = ~10KB of data)
Local Time Zone:
Enable Forecast / Timeshift (Recommended) Enable Fixed Y Axis Values Combine Y Series (B*, Proton, Dyn Preasure & Kp). Show Axis Titles Show Graph Legend (Keys) Enable Auto Update (Range will be reduced to 2 hours) Enable Night Vision Red Theme

DATA SOURCES: Learn more
Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.
'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

AF Index (Experemental) AF Community Activity (Hits)
Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

SWPC Kp (Observation)
SWPC Kp (Prediction) GeoSpace Kp (Prediction) Wing Kp (Legacy : Date < 22/06/18)
Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.

Northern Hemisphere (Aurora Borealis) Southern Hemisphere (Aurora Australis)
DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

Mag Bt (Total Strength) Mag Bx (X Axis) Mag By (Y Axis) Mag Bz (Z Axis) Solar Wind Speed Proton Density Dynamic Pressure (Calculated)
ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
Show ACE (When enabled the forecasting / timeshift feature will be disabled)
GOES Satalites: Learn more

GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

Primary Secondary Variation (Pri - Sec)
Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.

Macquarie Island (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Mawson (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Canberra (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Ruru Obseratory (www.ruruobseratory.org.nz / NZ) Aurora Forecast #1 (Hobart) Aurora Forecast #2 (Hobart) Aurora Forecast #3 (Hobart)
User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.

v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)

v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.

v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).

v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.

> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)
Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

DATA SOURCES: Learn more Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

DATA SOURCES: Learn more
Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.