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Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 1458
Issue Time: 2025 Dec 14 0932 UTC

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2025 Dec 14 0744 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 585 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

Solar-terrestrial indices for 14 December follow.
Solar flux 119 and estimated planetary A-index 8.
The estimated planetary K-index at 2100 UTC on 14 December was 1.67.

No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.

Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 13 Dec 014
Estimated Ap 14 Dec 008
Predicted Ap 15 Dec-17 Dec 010-008-010

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Dec-17 Dec
Active                25/20/25
Minor storm           10/05/10
Moderate storm        01/01/01
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 15 Dec - 17 Dec
             Dec 15    Dec 16    Dec 17
00-03UT        2.67      2.67      2.67
03-06UT        2.67      2.67      2.00
06-09UT        3.00      2.00      2.33
09-12UT        2.67      1.67      2.33
12-15UT        1.67      1.67      2.33
15-18UT        1.67      0.67      2.33
18-21UT        2.00      1.67      2.33
21-00UT        2.67      2.67      2.67

Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 15-Dec 17 2025 is 3.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 15-Dec 17 2025

             Dec 15       Dec 16       Dec 17
00-03UT       2.67         2.67         2.67
03-06UT       2.67         2.67         2.00
06-09UT       3.00         2.00         2.33
09-12UT       2.67         1.67         2.33
12-15UT       1.67         1.67         2.33
15-18UT       1.67         0.67         2.33
18-21UT       2.00         1.67         2.33
21-00UT       2.67         2.67         2.67

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Dec 15-Dec 17 2025

              Dec 15  Dec 16  Dec 17
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Dec 15-Dec 17 2025

              Dec 15        Dec 16        Dec 17
R1-R2           25%           25%           25%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: There is a chance for isolated R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts over 15-17 Dec.

Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels with C-class flare activity observed.
The largest flare of the period was a C3.8 flare at 14/0742 UTC from a
source beyond the SW limb. Accompanying the flare was a Type-II radio
sweep with an estimated velocity of 585 km/s, and a CME off the SW in
LASCO C2 imagery, beginning at 14/0800 UTC, that is not expected to be
Earth-directed. The second largest flare of the period, a C2.3/SF,
originated from Region 4307 (S13W34, Dai/beta). This region was the main
contributor for the C-class flares observed during the day. A new region
was numbered: 4309 (S09W33, Bxo/beta), resulting in five numbered active
regions on the visible solar disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected
in available imagery.

.Forecast...
There is a chance for M-class flare (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) activity
over 15-17 Dec.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the
greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained steady at background levels
during the period.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at moderate
levels on 15 Dec, with high levels likely on 16-17 Dec. The greater than
10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels through
17 Dec.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters suggested the continued, but weakening influence
from a negative polarity CH HSS. Total magnetic field strength (Bt)
remained around 4 nT, and the Bz component was mostly neutral or
northward throughout the period. Wind speeds decreased from around 650
km/s at the beginning of the period to sustained 500 km/s levels after
14/1800 UTC. Phi angle was predominately negative throughout the period.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to reflect diminishing negative
polarity CH HSS influences over 14-16 Dec. On Dec 17, the influence of
another negative CH HSS is likely to contribute to the disturbance of
the solar wind conditions near-Earth.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic activity was at quiet levels during the day, under
continued, but weakening, negative polarity CH HSS influences.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled, with
a chance for active conditions, over 15-17 Dec as the influences of two
negative CH HSS interplay (diminishing the first and starting the
second).

27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2025 Dec 08     190          18          5
2025 Dec 09     190          70          7
2025 Dec 10     185          33          5
2025 Dec 11     175          10          3
2025 Dec 12     155           5          2
2025 Dec 13     140          12          4
2025 Dec 14     130          12          4
2025 Dec 15     130           8          3
2025 Dec 16     135           5          2
2025 Dec 17     135           8          3
2025 Dec 18     140          10          3
2025 Dec 19     140           8          3
2025 Dec 20     140           8          3
2025 Dec 21     140          15          5
2025 Dec 22     140          20          5
2025 Dec 23     145          20          5
2025 Dec 24     160          25          5
2025 Dec 25     170          20          5
2025 Dec 26     180          20          5
2025 Dec 27     180          15          4
2025 Dec 28     180          10          3
2025 Dec 29     175           8          3
2025 Dec 30     180          30          6
2025 Dec 31     180          25          5
2026 Jan 01     175          10          3
2026 Jan 02     170          10          3
2026 Jan 03     170           8          3

Save as 'My Presets'

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.
From Date: (YYYY-MM-DD HH:MM). Leave empty for real-time.

Range: (in hours, WARNING 1 hour = ~10KB of data)
Local Time Zone:
Enable Forecast / Timeshift (Recommended) Enable Fixed Y Axis Values Combine Y Series (B*, Proton, Dyn Preasure & Kp). Show Axis Titles Show Graph Legend (Keys) Enable Auto Update (Range will be reduced to 2 hours) Enable Night Vision Red Theme

DATA SOURCES: Learn more
Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.
'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

AF Index (Experemental) AF Community Activity (Hits)
Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

SWPC Kp (Observation)
SWPC Kp (Prediction) GeoSpace Kp (Prediction) Wing Kp (Legacy : Date < 22/06/18)
Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.

Northern Hemisphere (Aurora Borealis) Southern Hemisphere (Aurora Australis)
DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

Mag Bt (Total Strength) Mag Bx (X Axis) Mag By (Y Axis) Mag Bz (Z Axis) Solar Wind Speed Proton Density Dynamic Pressure (Calculated)
ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
Show ACE (When enabled the forecasting / timeshift feature will be disabled)
GOES Satalites: Learn more

GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

Primary Secondary Variation (Pri - Sec)
Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.

Macquarie Island (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Mawson (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Canberra (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Ruru Obseratory (www.ruruobseratory.org.nz / NZ) Aurora Forecast #1 (Hobart) Aurora Forecast #2 (Hobart) Aurora Forecast #3 (Hobart)
User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.

v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)

v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.

v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).

v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.

> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)
Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

DATA SOURCES: Learn more Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

DATA SOURCES: Learn more
Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.