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Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 3697
Issue Time: 2026 Jun 08 0516 UTC

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 3696
Begin Time: 2026 Jun 07 1143 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 2874 pfu


Solar-terrestrial indices for 07 June follow.
Solar flux 134 and estimated planetary A-index 8.
The estimated planetary K-index at 1500 UTC on 08 June was 2.33.

No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be strong.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G3 level are likely.
Radio blackouts reaching the R2 level are likely.


Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 06 Jun 017
Estimated Ap 07 Jun 008
Predicted Ap 08 Jun-10 Jun 050-032-012

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jun-10 Jun
Active                04/10/40
Minor storm           15/20/15
Moderate storm        30/40/01
Strong-Extreme storm  51/25/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 08 Jun - 10 Jun
             Jun 08    Jun 09    Jun 10
00-03UT        2.33      5.67      3.67
03-06UT        2.00      5.33      3.33
06-09UT        4.33      4.33      2.33
09-12UT        5.00      3.33      2.00
12-15UT        5.67      3.00      2.00
15-18UT        6.67      3.33      2.00
18-21UT        5.33      3.67      2.67
21-00UT        5.67      4.00      2.67


Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 08-Jun 10 2026 is 6.67 (NOAA Scale
G3).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 08-Jun 10 2026

             Jun 08       Jun 09       Jun 10
00-03UT       2.33         5.67 (G2)    3.67
03-06UT       2.33         5.33 (G1)    3.33
06-09UT       2.67         4.33         2.33
09-12UT       3.00         3.33         2.00
12-15UT       5.67 (G2)    3.00         2.00
15-18UT       6.67 (G3)    3.33         2.00
18-21UT       5.33 (G1)    3.67         2.67
21-00UT       5.67 (G2)    4.00         2.67

Rationale: Periods of G1-G3 (Minor-Strong) geomagnetic storming are
likely on 08 Jun, with G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) levels likely on 09 Jun,
due to the anticipated passage of a CME that left the Sun on 06 Jun.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 08-Jun 10 2026

              Jun 08  Jun 09  Jun 10
S1 or greater   25%      5%      5%

Rationale: There is a chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to
reach S1 (Minor) levels on 08 June with the shock arrival of the 06 June
CME.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 08-Jun 10 2026

              Jun 08        Jun 09        Jun 10
R1-R2           55%           55%           55%
R3 or greater   10%           10%           10%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a
slight chance for an R3 (Strong) or greater event, over 08-10 Jun.


Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity returned to low levels with mostly lower level C-class
flare activity. Region 4455 (N15W82, Hsx/alpha) underwent decay and
remained relatively quiet. Region 4456 (N17W55, Dai/beta) underwent
minor decay as well. Regions 4462 (N15W02, Dsi/beta) and 4464 (S12E31,
Dai/beta) experienced growth as they gained additional spots and tacked
on C-class flares as well. New Region 4465 (N11E80, Dao/beta) was
numbered this period and produced the largest flare, a C7.2 at 08/0249
UTC.

No new Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph
imagery.

.Forecast...
A chance for isolated M-class flare activity (55%) will persist through
10 June primarily due to the flare potential exhibited by Regions 4456,
4458 (S05W69, Dso/beta), 4462 and 4465 alongside the flare history of
Region 4455.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels with a peak flux of 2,874 pfu at 07/1540 UTC. The greater
than 10 MeV proton flux remained slightly enhanced due to the eruption
from the M1.8 flare event on 06 June, but was well below the S1 (Minor)
radiation storm threshold.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to return to normal to moderate levels on 08 June with the
arrival of the 06 June CME. 2 MeV electron flux levels are likely to
return to high levels by the close of 09 June and continue at high
levels through 10 June. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected
to remain at background levels with a chance for an S1 (Minor) event on
08 June with the shock arrival of the 06 June CME.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected positive polarity CH HSS influences.
Total field primarily ranged 4-5 nT and the Bz component was +/- 4 nT.
Solar wind speeds peaked at approximately 589 km/s, but overall
gradually declined to about 475 km/s.

.Forecast...
A disturbed and enhanced solar wind environment is expected by early to
mid UTC-day on 08 June with the shock arrival from the 06 June CME
bringing enhanced magnetic field and faster solar wind. These
enhancements are anticipated to continue into 09 June before gradually
diminishing through 10 June.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.

.Forecast...
G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storming are likely to begin by mid
UTC-day on 08 June with the arrival of the CME that left the Sun on 06
June. G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storming is likely during the latter half
of 08 June, but this outcome is dependent upon how much the CME has
expanded into the Sun-Earth line as the model indicates a bulk of the
material to be mostly south and east of Earth. G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate)
geomagnetic storming is likely to linger into the early portions of 09
June before giving way to unsettled to active conditions that carry into
10 June.


27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2026 Jun 08     135          50          7
2026 Jun 09     132          32          6
2026 Jun 10     130          12          3
2026 Jun 11     130          15          3
2026 Jun 12     128          10          3
2026 Jun 13     128           6          2
2026 Jun 14     120           6          2
2026 Jun 15     118           8          3
2026 Jun 16     120           8          3
2026 Jun 17     122           5          2
2026 Jun 18     122           5          2
2026 Jun 19     125           5          2
2026 Jun 20     125           5          2
2026 Jun 21     128           8          3
2026 Jun 22     130           8          3
2026 Jun 23     132          10          4
2026 Jun 24     134          15          4
2026 Jun 25     134          15          4
2026 Jun 26     132          15          4
2026 Jun 27     130          10          3
2026 Jun 28     132           8          3
2026 Jun 29     130           6          2
2026 Jun 30     128           8          3
2026 Jul 01     125           5          2
2026 Jul 02     130           5          2
2026 Jul 03     128          12          3
2026 Jul 04     125           8          3


  • GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
    It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

  • DATA SOURCES: Learn more
    Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

  • 'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
    These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

    The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

    Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

  • Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
    The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

    Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

  • Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
    The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.
  • DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

    The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

    Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

  • ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

    ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
  • GOES Satalites: Learn more

    GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

  • Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
    Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
    These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
    There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.
  • User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
    If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
    Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

 

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.


v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
 
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
 
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
 
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
 
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)

  Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey